Lost in a Gallup (eBook)

Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections

W. Joseph Campbell (Autor)

eBook Download: EPUB

2024
368 Seiten
University of California Press (Verlag)
978-0-520-39782-8 (ISBN)

Infos

This update of a lively, first-of-its-kind study of polling misfires and fiascoes in U.S. presidential campaigns takes up pollsters’ failure over the decades to offer accurate assessments of the most important of American elections.

"W. Joseph Campbell's work always opens my eyes, challenging assumptions the world has turned into facts. Whenever I get a chance to read Campbell's work, I seize it."—Jake Tapper, CNN anchor

Lost in a Gallup tells the story of polling flops and failures in presidential elections since 1936. Polls do go bad, as outcomes in 2020, 2016, 2012, 2004, and 2000 all remind us. This updated edition includes a new chapter and conclusion that address the 2020 polling surprise and considers whether polls will get it right in 2024. 

As author W. Joseph Campbell discusses, polling misfires in presidential elections are not all alike. Pollsters have anticipated tight elections when landslides have occurred. They have pointed to the wrong winner in closer elections. Misleading state polls have thrown off expected national outcomes. Polling failure also can lead to media error. Journalists covering presidential races invariably take their lead from polls. When polls go bad, media narratives can be off-target as well. Lost in a Gallup encourages readers to treat election polls with healthy skepticism, recognizing that they could be wrong.

Inhalt

Contents

List of Figures, Tables, and Boxes 
Acknowledgments 

Introduction: Of Pollsters, Journalists, and Presidential Elections 
1. Of Poll-Bashing Journalists and the “Babe Ruth” of Survey Research 
2. “A Time of Polls Gone Mad”: The Literary Digest Debacle of 1936 
3. “The Defeat of the Pollsters”: The Epic Fail of 1948 
4. A Tie “Would Suit Them Fine”: The 1952 Landslide Pollsters Did Not Foresee 
5. The “Close Race That Never Happened”: Miscalling the 1980 Election 
6. “Television’s Version of ‘Dewey Defeats Truman’”: The Trifecta of 2000 
7. “President Kerry”: Exit Polls Misfire in 2004 
8. “Gallup vs. the World”: Pointing the Wrong Way in 2012 
9. “The Night That Wasn’t Supposed to Happen”: The Shock Election of 2016 
10. A “Stinking Pile of Hot Garbage”: Polls of 2020 Were the Worst in Forty Years 
Conclusion: Will It Happen Again? 

Notes 
Select Bibliography 
Index

Produkt-Details

• Erscheint lt. Verlag: 20.2.2024
• Sprache: englisch
• Themenwelt: Geisteswissenschaften ► Geschichte ► Regional- / Ländergeschichte
• Themenwelt: Sozialwissenschaften ► Politik / Verwaltung
• Schlagworte: 2016 Presidential election • 2024 • American History • Bush • campaign narratives • Clinton • comprehensive study • Controversy • Data • Election Day • failed predictions in elections • faulty • forecasts and accuracy challenges • Gallup track record review • George Gallup • Gore • influence on election outcomes • Journalism • Kerry • media failure • media influence on polling trust • November 5 • Obama • past polling accuracy in elections • Politics • President • public opinion trends • public polling • Romney • skepticism • Surveys • Trump • Trust • trust in election forecasts • U.S. election polling failures • voter behavior insights • voter impact from polling mistakes • voter sentiment analysis
• ISBN-10: 0-520-39782-7 / 0520397827
• ISBN-13: 978-0-520-39782-8 / 9780520397828