Commercial Real Estate Investing (eBook)

An Evidence-Based Approach to Risk Management, Strategic Valuation, and Enhanced Returns

Randall Zisler (Autor)

eBook Download: EPUB

2025
798 Seiten
Wiley (Verlag)
978-1-394-32638-9 (ISBN)

Infos

The hard, unfiltered truth about the biggest myths and mistakes in real estate investing

Commercial Real Estate Investing: An Evidence-Based Approach to Risk Management, Strategic Valuation, and Enhanced Returns is an evidence-based guide and critique of investment practices that teaches investors how to avoid uncompensated risk, improve risk-adjusted returns, and avoid wealth-destroying myths. Each chapter includes an executive summary and numerous exhibits. The book also features interviews with senior real estate industry leaders.

The author, Dr. Randall Zisler, legendary advisor to the largest global institutional investors, former Goldman Sachs real estate research director and Princeton University professor, has completed over $6 billion of institutional transactions. Not beholden to any investor or money manager, he is uniquely positioned to speak truth to capital and power; he is completely objective.

Topics include:

• Investment challenges like COVID, inflation, diversification, liquidity, downside, development risk, leverage, underfunded public pension funds, default, obsolescence, and the Winner's Curse
• The building blocks of real estate, including public and private equity and debt
• Property types, such as housing, retail, self-storage, industrial warehouses, and office
• Public policy, including land use controls, rent stabilization, affordability, and sprawl;
• Risk-based simulations of deals with leverage, limited and general partners and fees
• Investor checklist of risks and opportunities

Sidestepping industry platitudes and abstraction, Commercial Real Estate Investing is a must-read for all real estate professionals as well as novices who seek better decisions with greater confidence while avoiding one-size-fits-all solutions.

Randall Zisler, Ph.D., Co-Founder of Zisler Capital Associates, LLC, was a Princeton University professor teaching economics and finance. He was real estate research director at Goldman Sachs and Nomura Securities, co-head of investment banking at Jones Lang LaSalle, a partner at Pension Consulting Alliance, and CIO to Merv Griffin.

Textauszug

Acknowledgments

This book has something for everyone, whether appetites are insatiable or Spartan, or their interests are practical or theoretical. Whatever the appetite, what comes to mind is the Dagwood, a multi‐layered sandwich packed with fillings that promote excess, stun the imagination, and satisfy the hunger. The Dagwood, which originated in the comic strip, “Blondie,” during the Great Depression, is a super‐sized meal; so is this book.

I have written an unorthodox book for frustrated CIOs, investment committees, conflicted managers, ill‐informed consultants, and confused investors who hunger for new ideas.

This evidence‐based book is a rich layering of ingredients that shine a bright light on the received wisdom, offer practical, performance‐enhancing advice, and, I hope, challenge the established practices and investment myths. Interviews with twenty‐one experts leaven this confection.

There are no prerequisites. The insatiably curious and astute readers, amateurs as well as experts, should consume its contents in leisurely, thoughtful bites while sitting in a comfortable chair, maybe with a glass of wine or, even better still, a fine Port.

My tone is evidence‐based and polemical; I aim to persuade. This book is not Real Estate 101, but it is an excellent supplement for students and an urgently needed industry challenge.

My career seems more like a random walk than the result of a comprehensive plan hatched when I was a ninth grader. My goal then was to be an MIT physics professor. I attended Princeton where I studied math, physics, and architecture; I was surrounded by the world's brightest scholars. Perhaps most importantly, I was blessed with loving parents, great friends, legendary mentors, including Nobel Prize Laureates, and a wonderful, supportive family.

This is my first book, an all‐consuming project. After having written more than 100 articles, my wife, Joan, said that now was the time to write THE BOOK. The talented and focused team at John Wiley & Sons, including Zachary Schisgal, was patient and supportive. They restrained my worse instincts, namely writing too much. Mark Twain once advised that, had he more time, he would have written less. Joan reminded me what Mies Van Der Rohe, the architect, once said: Less is more!

I have had outstanding mentors throughout this long odyssey. I thank my late PhD dissertation advisors, Professor Edwin S. Mills of the Princeton Economics Department and Professor Chester Rapkin of Princeton's School of Architecture and Urban Planning, for supporting my economics odyssey as a student and later as a Princeton University professor and colleague.

Goldman Sachs hired me to launch Wall Street's first real estate research group; at Goldman truly talented professionals in and out of real estate mentored me. Many are still my friends; some even agreed to participate as interviewees. I thank them for their fellowship and wisdom.

Many scholars, too numerous to mention, have influenced my thinking. I express my special gratitude to Emeritus Professor Burton Malkiel of Princeton and honor the memory of the late Stephen A. Ross, former MIT Professor and consultant to Goldman Sachs' Real Estate Research Group.

In the 1990s, Ethan Penner hired me to join his path‐breaking real estate finance business, which was funded by Nomura Securities International, and to run real estate research. Ethan is a legendary figure in both real estate and finance circles, renowned for launching CMBS and rescuing the commercial real estate industry in the 1990s, no small feat. A brilliant author in his own right, he introduced me to John Wiley & Sons and the rest is history. I learned a great deal from Ethan regarding structured finance and securitization.

Joan, my wife, our children, Matt and Kimberly, their spouses, Taja and John, and their children have been unstinting in their love and encouragement. I could not have written this book without their support.

I have had three superb partners since leaving Nomura. Bart Steinfeld and I launched Apogee Associates in 1996, where we advised many institutional investors and developers from the 50th floor of New York's Chrysler Building. He was a dedicated and trusted partner.

Matt and I launched ZCA, a research and investment banking firm, in 2006 and advised some of the largest and most sophisticated pension funds, investment banks, and money managers in the world. As senior managing director at Greystone, he continues to inspire by his example.

Matt and I were delighted when Richard Burns, one of the original partners at AEW and former managing director at Morgan Stanley, joined us as partner just before the Great Financial Crisis (GFC). Then and now, Dick brings great wisdom.

Kimberly has been a dedicated and inspiring sounding board for new ideas over the years. She is multi‐talented and wise.

Kristen Woolley Mehne is a world‐class, Emmy award winning producer and editor of video and graphics for various platforms. She has guided the final production of the book's exhibits and worked closely with the entire Wiley team.

The interviews are candid recollections by experts who have made a difference and whom I deeply admire. They represent the very best in commercial real estate investing and economics. These interview sidebars should resonate with the rest of the book:

• Jason Benderly, President, Benderly Economics and former Chief Economist of Goldman Sachs
• Richard Burns, Senior Advisor & Trustee, The NHP Foundation
• Dan Cummings, Managing Director, Bain Capital, LP
• Michael Fascitelli, Chairman, MDF Capital; former CEO of Vornado and former Partner of Goldman Sachs & Co.
• Michael Giliberto, co‐creator of the Giliberto‐Levy Indexes; formerly senior portfolio manager at J. P. Morgan; and currently serving on corporate and pension fund boards
• Ronald Havner, Chairman of Public Storage and Chairman Emeritus of Shurgard
• Sonny Kalsi, Co‐Chief Executive Officer, BGO; former Global Head of Morgan Stanley Real Estate Investing
• Doug Lyons, Managing Principal, Pearlmark
• Benjamin Shibe Macfarland III, CEO, SROACapital.com, LLC
• Daniel Neidich, CEO and Founder, Dune Capital Management; former Goldman Sachs Partner
• Joseph L. Pagliari, Jr., Ph.D., John Mazarakis and Chicago Atlantic Clinical Professor of Real Estate, Chicago Booth School of Business
• Ethan Penner, Chairman, Founder & CEO, Mosaic Real Estate Investors; former Managing Director and head of CMBS Group, Nomura Securities International
• Russell C. Platt, Co‐Founder and CEO, Forum Partners, former Managing Director of Morgan Stanley
• Ralph Rosenberg, Chairman of Real Assets, KKR; formerly of Golman Sachs
• Steve Rosenberg, Founder and CEO, Greystone
• John Sischo, Managing Principal of Coretrust Capital Partners, LLC
• Susan Stupin, Managing Director, Prescott Holdings, LLC and The Prescott Group, LLC
• Owen Thomas, Chairman and CEO, BXP, Inc.
• Steven Wechsler, President and CEO, National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts
• Aly Worthington, Head of Capital Markets, Summit Development
• Matthew Zisler, Senior Managing director, Head of Greystone Equity Services, Greystone

Susan Stupin, my esteemed former Goldman colleague and now Managing Director of the Prescott Holdings, LLC, and Professor Joseph Pagliari of the University of Chicago, who continues to write seminal papers on real estate finance and investments, have been generous, thoughtful, inspiring advisors.

I thank CoStar for its support and cooperation. CoStar maintains a unique data base. This book, the focus of which is the macroeconomics of commercial real estate risk, demonstrates new, creative ways in which investors can and should use this valuable capability.

NCREIF, an important supporter of my research over the years, is a powerful resource created and maintained by very talented professionals, in particular, Daniel Dierking, its president. Early in its history I had the honor to serve on its advisory board. This book demonstrates innovative ways to apply these critically important indexes to practical problems involving risk management.

I owe much to the Pension Real Estate Association and, in particular, to Gail Haynes, President, and to Greg MacKinnon, Director of Research, whose research continues to inspire.

I benefited from and deeply appreciate my discussions with my former client, CBRE Econometric Advisors, and its talented team led by Richard Barkham, Ph.D., CBRE Global Chief Economist and Dennis Schoenmaker, Ph.D., Executive Director and Principal Economist, CBRE Econometric Advisors. I admire their research contribution.

A friend recently opined that I am the only person who could write this book. Maybe so, but more than $6 billion of transactions and solid research credentials, both necessary conditions, are not enough by themselves to justify this generous compliment. My lack of conflicts, a necessary condition, is responsible for this book's acerbic tone and unusual blend of economics, finance, and experience. This work would be impossible were I still an executive at any of the largest brokerage firms, prestigious investment banks, or global institutional investors. I am beholden neither to any investor nor to any money manager; I have no hidden agenda, so I am free to speak as the evidence dictates. Not all money managers (or even institutional investors and consultants) will appreciate a...

Produkt-Details

• Erscheint lt. Verlag: 6.10.2025
• Sprache: englisch
• Themenwelt: Betriebswirtschaft / Management ► Spezielle Betriebswirtschaftslehre ► Immobilienwirtschaft
• Schlagworte: Commercial Real Estate • guide real estate investing • industrial real estate • property investment • real estate investing advice • real estate investing mistakes • real estate investing returns • real estate investing risk
• ISBN-10: 1-394-32638-6 / 1394326386
• ISBN-13: 978-1-394-32638-9 / 9781394326389