Accelerated Land Reform, Mining, Growth, Unemployment and Inequality in South Africa (eBook)

A Case for Bold Supply Side Policy Interventions

Nombulelo Gumata, Eliphas Ndou (Autoren)

eBook Download: PDF

2020
642 Seiten
Springer International Publishing (Verlag)
978-3-030-30884-1 (ISBN)

Infos

The overarching goal of South Africa's National Development Plan (NDP) is to eliminate poverty, reduce inequality, lower unemployment and increase the labour participation.This book contributes to academic and policy efforts to achieve these NDP goals. We establish that the coal, metal ores and the platinum group commodity sectors will underpin the mining as a 'sunrise' industry. The export-led growth strategy is necessary for intensive employment creation but must be complemented by other micro, macroeconomic and industrial policies. A strategy of minerals beneficiation is important for intensive employment creation. Accelerated land reform is a supply side or structural reform policy intervention tool aimed at increasing potential output, changing ownership patterns in the economy, increasing entrepreneurship, labour absorption, economic inclusion and lowering income inequality. Evidence shows that the balance sheet channel, commodity price booms and busts are intricately linked with the exchange rate dynamics, policy uncertainty, confidence and the effects of droughts (also symptoms of climate change). Productivity and investment growth shocks matter for output, employment and price stability. Evidence indicates that nominal GDP growth above 10 percent and keeping inflation within the target band leads to significant increase in employment and decline in unemployment, without inflationary pressures, especially when inflation is below 4.5 percent. To operationalise the NDP targets, align and co-ordinate policies, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) mandate can be expanded to include maximum employment. This must be complemented by lowering the inflation target band, adjusting the financial regulatory, macro-prudential and monetary policy frameworks. This will enhance the conduct and credibility of monetary and financial stability policies to achieve the set objectives. These objectives make policy co-ordination pertinent and binding.

Nombulelo Gumata is an economist and has co-authored several books in the areas of international finance and macroeconomics, macro-prudential tools and financial stability, labour, monetary and fiscal policy.

Eliphas Ndou is an economist at the SARB and has authored books which cover areas in international finance, macroeconomics, microeconomics, monetary, labour and public economics, time-series econometrics, banking regulation and macro-prudential policy. 

Inhalt

Preface 5
Reference 16
Acknowledgements 18
Contents 19
List of Figures 24
List of Tables 58
1: Introduction 60
1.1 The Interaction Between Nominal Wage Inflation, Consumer Price Inflation and the Exchange Rate Appreciation and Depreciation Episodes Influences Output Costs Associated with Disinflation 61
1.2 An Evaluation of How the Inflation Targeting Framework Has Performed in South Africa 63
1.3 A Lower Inflation Target Regime and Monetary Policy Credibility 68
1.4 The Output-Employment Intensities and the Structural Change Indices 70
1.5 The Exports-Led GDP Growth Hypothesis and the Stimulation of Economic and Employment Growth 74
1.6 Import Competition, the Effectiveness of Import Tariffs and Exchange Rate Depreciation in Selected Agricultural Sector Industries 76
1.7 Can Accelerated Land Reform Help Reduce Poverty and Inequality? 78
1.8 Do the Land Redistribution and Increase in Hectares Planted Policies Complement Each Other? 81
1.9 What Does the Accelerated Land Reform Policy Imply for Youth Unemployment? 83
1.10 The Role of Investment and Productivity Shocks on Output and Employment Growth 86
1.11 Impact of Binding Minimum Wage Shocks in the Mining and Agricultural Sectors 88
1.12 The Role of the Land Bank, Postbank and Lower-Tier Banks 90
1.13 The Balance Sheet Channel, Contractionary Effects of Exchange Rate Depreciations and the Import Substitution Strategy 94
1.14 The Impact of Financial Regulations and Macroprudential Tools on the Funding of the Agricultural Sector Growth 96
1.15 The Interaction Between the Financial Sector Regulatory Framework, Property Rights Clause and the South African Reserve Bank Mandate 98
References 98
Part I: The Interaction Between Nominal Wage Inflation, Consumer Price Inflation and the Exchange Rate Appreciation and Depreciation Episodes and their Influence on Output Costs Associated with Disinflation 101
2: Does the Consideration of Nominal Wage Growth Imply a High Level of Inflation Inertia or Persistence Compared to Consumer Price Inflation? 102
2.1 Introduction 103
2.2 Why Does This Analysis Matters? 104
2.2.1 The Rejection of the Unemployment Invariance Hypothesis 104
2.2.2 High Inflation Is Bad for Economic Growth 105
2.2.3 The Short-Run Phillips Curve 106
2.2.4 Increased Labour Productivity Matters 106
2.3 What Are Sacrifice Ratios and Why They Matter? 108
2.4 The Ball (1994) and Harding and Pagan (2002b) Approaches to Disinflation 109
2.5 Actual Output and Employment Relative to Trend Output and Employment During Consumer and Wage Disinflation Episodes 111
2.6 How Does Trend Output and Employment Behave During the Nominal Wage and Consumer Price Disinflation Episodes 115
2.7 How Do Cyclical Output and Employment Perform During the Disinflation Episodes? 118
2.8 How Does the Policy Rate Change During the Disinflation Episodes? 120
2.9 Conclusion and Policy Implications 122
Appendix 123
References 126
3: Wage and Consumer Price Inflation During Exchange Rate Appreciation and Depreciation Episodes 128
3.1 Introduction 129
3.2 The Link Between the Exchange Rate, Nominal Wages and Consumer Price Inflation 130
3.3 The Exchange Rate, Nominal Wage and Consumer Price Inflation 132
3.4 Are the Macroeconomic Shock Effects and Monetary Policy Responses to Nominal Wage and Consumer Prices Different? 135
3.4.1 Do Inflation Regimes Play a Role on the Effects of Nominal Wage and Consumer Price Inflation Shocks? 138
3.4.2 What About Real Wage Inflation Threshold? 139
3.5 Do Exchange Rate Volatility Components Propagate the Impact of the R/US$ Exchange Rate Changes on Nominal Wage and Consumer Price Inflation? 141
3.6 Conclusion and Policy Implications 143
References 145
Part II: An Evaluation of the Performance of the Current Inflation Targeting Framework in South Africa and Whether Nominal GDP Growth Targeting is a Viable Alternative 146
4: An Evaluation of How the Inflation Targeting Framework Has Performed in South Africa 147
4.1 Introduction 147
4.2 Insight from Inflation and Output Trade-offs 149
4.3 Evidence from Disinflation Episodes and Output Costs 153
4.4 Insight from the Relationship Between Output Growth, Output-Gap and Inflation (Phillips Curve) 156
4.5 The Existence of Thresholds Within the Current Inflation Target Range 157
4.6 The Inflation Target Range and Thresholds Matter for the Pass-Through of Shocks 158
4.7 Relative Price Dispersion, Inflation and the Role of the Inflation Target Range 160
4.8 Monetary Policy Conduct and Asset Price Booms and Busts 160
4.9 Fiscal Policy Conduct Effects on Price Stability and the Inflation Targeting Regime 162
4.10 The Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Channels of Transmission into the Domestic Economy 163
4.11 How Has the Credibility of Monetary Policy in South Africa Evolved? 165
4.12 Conclusion and Policy Implications 168
References 169
5: Is There a Case for Nominal GDP Growth Targeting in South Africa and Abandoning Inflation Targeting? 172
5.1 Introduction 172
5.2 What Is Nominal GDP Targeting? 174
5.3 What Is the Nature of the Inflation and NGDP Volatilities in South Africa? 177
5.4 Inflation and Repo Rate Responses to Positive NGDP Growth Shocks 178
5.5 Taylor Rule Prescriptions Using NGDP Growth and CPI Inflation Under Different Inflation Target Bands 179
5.6 What Happens When the NGDP Growth Target Is Increased? 183
5.7 Conclusion and Policy Implications 185
References 186
6: How Does Nominal GDP Growth Respond to Various Shocks 189
6.1 Introduction 189
6.2 How Does NGDP Growth and Inflation Respond to Monetary Base Growth Shocks? 190
6.3 The Identification of Various Structural Shocks by Sign Restriction Approach 191
6.4 NGDP and Inflation Responses to Aggregate Supply Shocks? 192
6.5 How Does NGDP and Inflation Respond to Aggregate Demand Shocks? 193
6.6 NGDP and Inflation Responses to Credit or Loan Supply Shocks? 195
6.7 Conclusion and Policy Implications 196
References 197
7: Are High NGDP Growth Targets Consistent With a Dual Mandate of Low Inflation and Maximum Employment Growth and a Low Unemployment Rate? 199
7.1 Introduction 200
7.2 Where Does the NGDP Threshold Lie? 202
7.3 The Effects of NGDP Growth on Employment Growth and the Unemployment Rate 202
7.4 The Impact of Positive NGDP Growth Shocks: Perspective from the Employment Growth and the Unemployment Rate 203
7.4.1 Perspective from Consumer Price Inflation Regimes 204
7.4.2 What Can Explain the Inflation Behaviour? 206
7.4.3 The Role of the Exchange Rate Channel 207
7.4.4 The Role of the Nominal Wage Growth Channel 207
7.4.5 The Role of the Inflation Expectation Channels 209
7.5 What Are the Implications for the Conduct of Monetary Policy? 210
7.6 Conclusion and Policy Implications 211
References 212
Part III: The Output-Employment Intensities and the Structural Change Indices 215
8: What Is the Nature of the Output-Employment-Unemployment Nexus in South Africa? Evidence from Various Approaches to Okun’s Law 216
8.1 Introduction 216
8.2 Alternative Approaches to the Estimation of the GDP-Employment-Unemployment Growth Relationship 220
8.2.1 Different Versions of the Employment-Output Intensity Relationship 222
8.3 How Has the GDP-Employment-Unemployment Growth Relationships Evolved? 224
8.4 How Quickly Would Output Typically Need to Grow to Maintain a Given Level of Employment Growth and Unemployment Rate? 228
8.5 The Sectorial Estimates of the Okun’s Law Estimates 230
8.6 Conclusion and Policy Implications 233
Appendix 234
References 236
9: The Impact of Structural Change on the South African Economy: Evidence from the Structural Change Indices 238
9.1 Introduction 238
9.2 Brief Literature Review 239
9.3 Methodology of Measurement of Structural Change 241
9.4 Structural Change Indices 244
9.4.1 Nominal and Real Gross Value Added Structural Change Indices 245
9.4.2 Employment Structural Change Indices 246
9.4.3 Investment Structural Change Indices 247
9.5 Causality Between Sectoral Growth and Sectoral Structural Change Indices 247
9.6 Conclusion and Policy Implications 251
Appendix 252
References 253
10: The Impact of Structural Change on the South African Economy: Evidence from the McMillan and Rodrik (2011) Labour Productivity Decomposition Approach 256
10.1 Introduction 256
10.2 Decomposition Approach 258
10.3 Selected Trends 259
10.4 McMillan and Rodrik (2011) Decomposition Approach: The Decomposition of Labour Productivity into the “Within” and “Structural Change” Components 262
10.5 Has the Structural Change Component Been Positive for the South African Economy? 267
10.6 What Happens to the Displaced Workers Due to Positive Shocks to Relative Labour Productivity? 269
10.7 Conclusion and Policy Implications 272
Appendix 273
References 274
Part IV: Policy Uncertainty, Mining Sector Charter, Exchange Rate Volatility, Commodity Price Booms and Busts, Binding Minimum Wage Increases and the Mining Sector 276
11: How Has the Intensity of the Ability of Commodity-Specific Output Growth to Create Jobs Evolved? Implications for the Mining Sector as a “Sunrise Industry” 277
11.1 Introduction 277
11.2 Is There a Case for a Special Treatment of Coal Mining Within the Mining Sector and Energy Mix Policy? 281
11.3 The Metal Ores Commodity Sector 283
11.4 The Platinum Group Commodity Sector 284
11.5 Output-Employment Estimates for the Commodity Sector Mining 286
11.6 Conclusion and Policy Implications 288
Appendix 291
References 292
12: Is Export-Led Growth a Necessary but Insufficient Condition for Job Creation in the Mining Sector? Does This Mean That There Is a Strong Case for Beneficiation? 293
12.1 Introduction 293
12.2 The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis 296
12.2.1 Analytical Framework 297
12.3 Data and Stylised Facts 297
12.3.1 Aggregate Exports, GDP, Employment and Investment Growth 298
12.3.2 Evidence from Granger Causality Tests 300
12.3.3 Mining Exports, GDP, Employment and Investment Growth 300
12.4 Is There a Prevalence of the “Exports-Led Growth” Hypothesis Over the “Growth-Driven Exports” Hypothesis? 303
12.4.1 Does the “Exports-Led Growth” Hypothesis Hold in the Mining Sector? 306
12.4.2 The Role of Foreign Demand 307
12.4.3 Is Foreign Demand a Catalyst for Mining Exports, Output and Employment Growth? 307
12.5 Conclusion and Policy Implications 310
Appendix 311
References 312
13: The Impact of Mining Commodity Price Booms and Sharp Exchange Rate Depreciation Episodes on Mining Output and Employment Growth 313
13.1 Introduction 313
13.2 The Identification of Booms and Busts 315
13.3 Measuring the Synchronisation of Cycles: The Harding and Pagan Approach 317
13.4 Identification of Booms and Bust Episodes Based on the Threshold Techniques 318
13.5 How Do Sharp Exchange Rate Appreciations and Depreciations Coincide with Capital Flow Surges and Sudden Stop Episodes? 322
13.6 Do Capital Flow Surge and Sudden Stop Episodes Coincide with the Equity and Commodity Price Booms and Busts? 324
13.7 Did South Africa Miss Out from the Commodity Price Super Cycle? 325
13.8 The Sector Mining Output Losses Due to Commodity and Asset Price Busts and Sharp Exchange Rate Appreciations and Depreciations 327
13.9 What Happens to the Mining Sector Output, Investment and Employment Growth During Assets and Commodity Price Bust Episodes? 329
13.9.1 Which Mining Commodity Sectors Are More Responsive to Commodity and Asset Price Busts? 331
13.10 Episodes of Financial Cycle Boom Episodes and the Amplification Effects on Credit and GDP 333
13.11 Conclusion and Policy Implications 337
Appendix 338
References 339
14: The Role of the Exchange Rate on Investment Growth in the Mining Sector: Evidence from the Balance Sheet Hypothesis 341
14.1 Introduction 341
14.2 Literature Review 345
14.3 The Contractionary Effects of Large Real Exchange Depreciations Versus Large Commodity Price Busts 348
14.3.1 What Is the Impact of Large Real Exchange Rate Depreciations Compared to Those Induced by Severe Commodity Price Busts? 349
14.3.2 How Different Is the Variance Induced by the Real Exchange Rate Depreciations Versus Commodity Price Declines? 352
14.3.3 How Does Mining Investment Respond to Commodity Prices, Foreign Debt and Intermediate Imports? 353
14.3.4 The Impact of Persistent and Transitory Commodity Price Shocks 354
14.3.5 The Asymmetric Transmissions of Shocks to Mining Investment 356
14.4 Conclusions and Policy Implications 358
Appendix 359
References 360
15: The Role of the Exchange Rate Volatility Shocks on the Mining Sector 363
15.1 Introduction 363
15.2 Why Does Exchange Rate Volatility Matter? 365
15.3 Thresholds for Mining Investment Growth 367
15.4 What Is the Impact of the Exchange Rate Volatilities on Mining Investment, Output and Employment Growth? 368
15.4.1 What Is the Impact of Exchange Rate Volatilities on Mining Exports? 371
15.5 The Threshold Effects on Mining Investment on Output and Employment 371
15.6 Conclusion and Policy Implications 373
References 375
16: The Role of Policy Uncertainty, Low Confidence and the Mining Charter in the Transmission of Positive Shocks to Commodity Prices in the Mining Sector 377
16.1 Introduction 377
16.2 Literature Review 382
16.3 Empirical Findings 385
16.3.1 Historical Variance Decompositions 389
16.3.2 The Propagation of Positive Shocks to Commodity Prices by Various Shocks 390
16.4 Conclusion and Policy Implications 393
References 393
17: What Are the Mechanisms and Channels Through Which the Mining Sector Adjusted to an Increase in the Binding Minimum Wage in 2014? 396
17.1 Introduction 396
17.2 Literature Review 400
17.3 Empirical Evidence 407
17.4 Conclusion and Policy Implications 410
Appendix 412
References 412
Part V: The Implications of the Policy of Accelerated Land Reform for Food Security and Affordability, Price Stability and the Agricultural Sector Output and Employment Growth 414
18: Land Reform, Redistribution and Agricultural Investment Growth: What Are Implications for the National Development Plan Output and Employment Targets? 415
18.1 Introduction 416
18.2 Further Stylised Facts on the Agricultural Sector 421
18.3 How Employment Intensive Is the Agricultural Sector GDP Growth? 426
18.4 What Happens to Agricultural GDP and Employment Growth When Investment Increases? 431
18.5 Does Bringing Underutilised Land in the Former Homelands and Communal Areas Make a Meaningful Difference? 432
18.6 Conclusion and Policy Implications 435
References 438
19: What Is the Role of Food Commodity Price Booms and Busts in the Agricultural Sector? Implications for Monetary Policy 439
19.1 Introduction 439
19.2 The Identification of Food Commodity Price Booms and Busts 442
19.3 How Reasonable and Plausible Is the First Common Food Commodity Price Factor? 445
19.3.1 How Synchronised Are Domestic and Global Food Commodity Prices? 446
19.4 What Is the Role of Food Commodity Price Booms and Busts in the Agricultural Sector? 447
19.4.1 What about Investment Growth in the Agricultural Sector? 449
19.4.2 Do Food Commodity Price Booms and Busts Push Food and Consumer Price Inflation, and Key Agricultural Sector Aggregates in Different Directions? 450
19.5 Conclusion and Policy Implications 453
Appendix 455
References 457
20: What Is the Role of Trade Liberalisation and Food Commodity Price Booms in the Agricultural Sector? Implications for the Export-Led Growth Strategy 459
20.1 Introduction 459
20.2 How Has Trade Liberalisation Affected the Agricultural Sector? 463
20.3 What Are the Effects of Exposure to Import Competition in the Agricultural Sector? 466
20.4 Does Export Growth Cause Output Growth? 473
20.5 Do Food Commodity Price Booms Propagate the Demand Effects on Exports Growth? 476
20.6 Conclusion and Policy Implications 477
Appendix 480
References 484
21: Is the Agricultural Sector Sensitive to the Exchange Rate Depreciation and Volatility Shocks: Evidence from the Balance Sheet Channel 486
21.1 Introduction 487
21.2 Why Is the Assessment of the Exchange Rate Balance Sheet Effects Important for the Agricultural Sector? 487
21.3 The Balance Sheet Channel of the Monetary Policy Transmission 489
21.4 The Agricultural Sector Capital Assets on Commercial Farms 492
21.5 The Exchange Rate Channel of the Monetary Policy Transmission on the Agricultural Sector 495
21.5.1 The Food Prices and Headline Inflation Channel 495
21.5.2 The Exchange Rate, Import Duties and the Import Price Channel in the Poultry Sector 497
21.5.3 What Is the Impact of Wheat Tariffs and R/US$ on Wheat Imports? Which One between Wheat Tariffs and R/US$ Depreciation Exerts Significant Effects? 503
21.5.4 The Impact of the Exchange Rate on the Components of the Agricultural Sector Imports 506
21.6 Conclusion and Policy Implications 510
Appendix 512
References 513
22: What Is the Impact of a Binding Minimum Wage on the Agricultural Sector? 515
22.1 Introduction 515
22.2 Summary of Recent Findings on the Impact of the Minimum Wage on the Agricultural Sector 521
22.3 Literature on the Channels of Adjustment to an Increase in the Binding Minimum Wage 524
22.4 What Are the Dominant Channels of Adjustment to the Minimum Wage in the Agricultural Sector? 527
22.4.1 The Impact of Food Commodity Price Booms and Busts 528
22.4.2 The Exports Growth Channel 528
22.4.3 Does the Hypothesis of the Efficiency Wage Hold in the Agricultural Sector? 529
22.4.4 Do Tight Monetary Policy Shocks Matter for the Agricultural Sector? 530
22.4.5 How Does the Agricultural Sector Adjust to an Unexpected Increase in the Minimum Wage? 531
22.5 What Is the Role of Hours and the Capital-Labour Ratio Dynamics as Adjustment Channels to the Increase in the Minimum Wage? 534
22.6 Conclusion and Policy Implications 538
References 540
23: Social Income Grants, Population Dynamics and Gender Distribution in the Agricultural Sector Employment 541
23.1 Introduction 541
23.2 Social Income Grants Trends and Studies on the Impact of the Social Income Grant System 543
23.3 Population and Gender Dynamics 545
23.4 Conclusion 547
References 548
24: Land Redistributed between 1994 and 2017, the Production Function and the Evolution of Area Planted in Various Agricultural Sector Commodities 550
24.1 Introduction 550
24.2 Land as a Primary Factor in the Production Function and the Evolution of Land Reform in South Africa 554
24.3 The Evolution of Area Planted, Tonnes per Hectare Produced and Yield per Hectare Planted in Selected Field Crops 559
24.4 Conclusion and Policy Implications 564
References 566
25: The Interaction between the Minimum Wage, Social Income Grants, Household Consumption and the Gini Coefficient 568
25.1 Introduction 568
25.2 Do Positive Shocks to the Minimum Wage and Social Income Grants Lead to an Increase in Household Consumption and a Decline in the Gini Coefficient? 570
25.3 Do Positive Shocks to the Minimum Wage and Social Income Grants Reinforce Each Other’s Effects on Household Consumption and the Gini Coefficient? 572
25.4 Is There Evidence of a Direct Impact of Social Income Grants on the Agricultural Sector in the Rural Areas? 574
25.5 Conclusion and Policy Implications 575
References 576
26: Can Accelerated Land Reform and The Increase in Hectares Planted Policy Tools Help Increase Employment Growth and Reduce Income Inequality? 578
26.1 Introduction 578
26.2 Do Positive Shocks to Area Planted and Land Redistribution Lead to an Increase in Household Consumption and the Gini Coefficient? 580
26.3 Can Accelerated Land Reform and Increase in Hectares Planted Policy Tools Help Increase Employment Growth and Reduce Income Inequality? 581
26.4 Do the Land Redistribution and Increase in Hectares Planted Policies Complement Each Other? 583
26.5 Conclusion and Policy Implications 584
References 585
Part VI: The Interaction Between the Financial Sector Regulatory Framework, Property Rights Clause and the South African Reserve Mandate 586
27: The Transmission of Shocks to Farmland Prices, Interest Rates and the Confidence Channels in the Agricultural Sector 587
27.1 Introduction 588
27.2 The “Willing Buyer:Willing Seller” Model and the Funding Requirement for Land Reform 589
27.3 Idiosyncratic Factors Related to Farmland Prices 590
27.4 A Brief Discussion of the Models of Land Reform since 1994 591
27.5 The Relationship between Farmland Prices and Selected House Price Indicators 594
27.6 The Relationship between Prime Rate and Nominal Farmland Prices 597
27.7 The Channels of Transmission of Interest Rate Shocks in the Agricultural Sector 597
27.7.1 The Asset Price Channel Operating Via Farmland Prices in the Agricultural Sector 598
27.8 The Role of the Business Confidence Channel 600
27.8.1 Does the Agricultural Sector Business Confidence Channel Propagate Positive Shocks to Farmland Prices? 600
27.9 Conclusion and Policy Implications 601
References 603
28: The Land Bank Balance Sheet and the Transmission of Shocks to the Agricultural Sector 605
28.1 Introduction 606
28.2 The Evolution and Structure of the Agricultural Sector Debt 607
28.3 What about the Land Bank Exposure? 608
28.3.1 The Quality of the Land Bank Loan Book 612
28.4 How Are Loan Supply Shocks Transmitted Via the Land Bank Balance Sheet? 614
28.5 Asymmetric Effects of Positive Land Bank Balance Sheet Shocks 617
28.6 Quality of the Balance Sheet: The Case of Land Bank Non-performing Loans 620
28.7 Conclusion and Policy Implications 621
Appendix 622
References 623
29: Is There a Role that Lower-Tier Banks Can Play in Complementing the Land Bank Development Mandate of the Agricultural Sector Value Chain? 625
29.1 Introduction 626
29.2 The Historical Role of Co-operative Banks, Control and Marketing Boards in the Agricultural Sector 626
29.3 The Land and Agricultural Bank Act and the Agricultural Sector Development 628
29.4 Stylised Facts of the Balance Sheets of Lower-Tier Banks in South Africa 629
29.4.1 The Postbank Balance Sheet 629
29.4.2 The Mutual Banks’ Balance Sheet 631
29.4.3 The Co-operative Banks’ Balance Sheet 633
29.5 What Are the Effects of Positive Credit Extension Shocks by the Postbank, Co-operative Banks and Mutual Banks? 634
29.6 What Are the Financial Implications of Increasing the Size of the Postbank, Co-operative Banks and Mutual Banks? 636
29.7 Conclusion and Policy Implications 638
References 639
30: The Impact of Financial Regulations and Macroprudential Tools on the Funding of the Agricultural Sector Growth 641
30.1 Introduction 641
30.2 What Is the Impact of a Decline in Excess CAR on RWAs and the Share of the Agricultural Sector Credit by the Banking Sector? 643
30.3 What Is the Impact of a Decline in Excess CAR on the Agricultural Sector Growth? 644
30.4 Robustness Analysis: Inferences for the Impact of Positive RWAs Shocks 645
30.5 Do Negative Excess CAR Shocks Exert Asymmetric Effects on the Agricultural Sector? 646
30.6 Conclusion and Policy Implications 647
References 648
31: The Interaction Between the Financial Sector Regulatory Framework, Property Rights Clause and the South African Reserve Bank Mandate 650
31.1 Introduction 650
31.2 How Can Section 25(5) of the Constitution Be Redrafted to Protect Gender Equity? 652
31.2.1 What Are the Implications for Communal Land? 655
31.3 What about the Criteria Set Out in 25(3) of the Constitution to Decide What Is Fair, Just and Equitable Compensation? Is There a Case to Redraft and Expand Criteria in Making Decisions about the Trade-Offs? 656
31.3.1 What Is in the Public Interest and What Is for a Public Purpose? 656
31.3.2 How Does the Court Fix It and What Is Fair Compensation? 657
31.3.3 What Constrains and Anchors the Application of Discretion and Judgement on What Is Fair, Just and Equitable Compensation? 659
31.4 What Are the Implications for Section 223 of the Constitution for the Monetary Policy Framework of the South African Reserve Bank? 661
31.4.1 The Price Stability Mandate 662
31.4.2 The Financial Stability Mandate 663
31.4.3 The Expanded Monetary Policy Mandate 667
31.5 Conclusion and Policy Implications 670
References 671
Index 674

Produkt-Details

• Erscheint lt. Verlag: 3.1.2020
• Zusatzinfo: LXII, 642 p. 387 illus.
• Sprache: englisch
• Themenwelt: Wirtschaft ► Volkswirtschaftslehre
• Schlagworte: Aggregate demand shocks • BRICS GDP growth shocks • Commodity price booms • Equity flows • Exchange rate appreciation and depreciation • Expansionary monetary policy • Export-led growth • federal funds rate • Foreign economic growth uncertainty • Inflation • Monetary policy tightening shocks • Okun’s law • Output-employment-unemployment nexus in South Africa • Output growth volatility • Repo rate • South African GDP growth • South African labor market conditions • Taylor Curve • Wage and consumer price inflation • Wage growth
• ISBN-10: 3-030-30884-7 / 3030308847
• ISBN-13: 978-3-030-30884-1 / 9783030308841