Perspectives on Global Development 2017 International Migration in a Shifting World (eBook)

Oecd (Autor)

eBook Download: EPUB

2016 | 1. Auflage
100 Seiten
OECD Publishing (Verlag)
978-92-64-26646-9 (ISBN)

Infos

Perspectives on Global Development 2017 presents an overview of the shifting of economic activity to developing countries and examines whether this shift has led to an increase in international migration towards developing countries. The report focuses on the latest data on migration between 1995 and 2015, and uses a new three-way categorisation of countries. It describes the recent evolution of migration overall as well as by groups of countries according to their growth performance.It analyses what drives these trends and also studies the special case of refugees. It examines the impact on migration of migration policies as well as various sectoral policies in developing countries of origin as well as of destination, and studies the impact of migration on these countries. The report also develops four illustrative future scenarios of migration in 2030 and recommends policies that can help improve the benefits of migration for origin and destination countries, as well as for migrants. Better data, more research and evidence-based policy action are needed to prepare for expected increases in the number of migrants from developing countries. More needs to be done to avoid situations that lead to refugee spikes as well as to foster sustainable development.

Textauszug

Chapter 2. Shifting wealth: Trends, implications and prospects

This edition of Perspectives on Global Development examines international migration in the context of the phenomenon of “shifting wealth” and an increasingly interconnected world economy. Laying the groundwork for the following chapters on migration, this chapter revisits shifting wealth trends and implications, and it outlines some prospects for the future. The first section looks at the economic factors that have driven shifting wealth, highlighting in particular the role of China as its engine, the recent commodity price boom, massive capital investment, the increasing interdependencies of the world economy and technological change. It illustrates how the shifting wealth process is slowing. The second section records how the phenomenon has benefited living conditions around the world, particularly with respect to jobs, wages and incomes. However, it also illustrates that current challenges to growth and trends in other areas, such as demography and inequality, risk undoing some of the recent achievements. The final section posits the hypothesis that the shifting wealth phenomenon has influenced patterns of international migration. It introduces a new typology of countries to help explore this question.

Emerging and developing countries have grown faster than advanced countries since the 2000s. This shifting weight of global economic activity that is referred to as shifting wealth,1 has largely been driven by China and, to a lesser extent, India. It has prompted a massive expansion of productive employment in the developing world. Millions of people have emerged from extreme poverty, unskilled workers have seen real increases in their wages, life expectancy has improved and literacy is more widespread than ever.

However, there is a risk that the period of rapid growth in the emerging world is over. The growth differential between Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and non-OECD countries has narrowed in recent years after its peak in 2009 during the global financial and economic crisis. This development is largely the result of a slowdown in some large developing economies, particularly China, and countries that export natural resources, such as Brazil and the Russian Federation. China is moving gradually towards a lower growth path, sometimes called the “new normal”. Moreover, many people’s livelihoods around the world remain vulnerable because of a number of other emerging trends that are affecting the globally integrated world system and posing a threat to continued convergence of per capita incomes and other improvements made in recent decades.

This edition of Perspectives on Global Development examines international migration in the context of the phenomenon of “shifting wealth”. This chapter revisits shifting wealth trends and implications, and it outlines some prospects for the future. In so doing, it lays the groundwork for the following chapters covering migration issues in the context of current and future shifting wealth. The first section looks at economic factors that have driven past shifting wealth, highlighting in particular the role of China as its engine, the recent commodity price boom, massive capital investment and the increasing interdependencies of the world economy as well as technological change. The section also illustrates that the shifting wealth process is slowing and points to some risks for an even more significant slowdown than that currently projected by international institutions. The second section highlights how shifting wealth has benefited livelihoods around the world, particularly with respect to jobs, wages and incomes. However, it also illustrates that current growth challenges and trends in other areas, such as demography and inequality, risk undoing some of the recent achievements. The final section posits the hypothesis that the shifting wealth phenomenon has influenced patterns of international migration. It introduces a new typology of countries to help explore this question.

Slower shifting wealth or much slower shifting wealth?

Since the early 2000s, developing economies have experienced greatly accelerated economic growth compared with OECD countries. In 2010, non-OECD countries accounted for more than 50% of the world’s GDP (expressed in purchasing power parities [PPPs]), up from around 40% in 2000 (Figure 2.1). The difference in GDP growth rates between advanced countries and emerging and developing countries began to rise surely and steadily in the 2000s, peaking in 2009 during the financial crisis when advanced economies contracted by 3.4% and emerging and developing economies achieved 3.5% growth (OECD, 2014). Since then the growth differential between OECD and non-OECD countries has narrowed. Shifting wealth was made possible by a combination of factors, some of them more structural and others more cyclical, but now they all show signs of fading away.

Figure 2.1. Shifting weight in global economic activity is likely to continue, although at a slower pace, mostly because of the slowdown in China

Share in global GDP (in %): 2000-15

Note: GDP shares are based on GDP figures in current PPPs. In terms of GDP in PPPs terms, the next 10 largest economies after the BRIICS (Brazil, Russian Federation, India, Indonesia, China and South Africa) and the OECD are: Saudi Arabia, Iran, Chinese Taipei, Nigeria, Thailand, Egypt, Argentina, Pakistan, Malaysia and the Philippines.

Source: Authors’ calculations based on IMF (2016), World Economic Outlook, Too Slow for Too Long, April, www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/01/.

StatLink  http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888933422089

The overall shift of the concentration of economic activity is to a large extent attributable to the rise of China. China’s share in global GDP (in PPPs) was around 7% in 2000 and jumped to almost 17% by 2015 (Figure 2.1). China has experienced a unique growth spurt since the start of the economic reform process in the late 1970s. Economic reforms introducing market principles began in 1978 and were carried out in two rounds. First, in the late 1970s and early 1980s, the decollectivisation of agriculture, the opening up of the country to foreign investment, and permission for entrepreneurs to start businesses were introduced, while most industry remained state-owned. The second round of reforms, in the late 1980s and 1990s, involved the privatisation and contracting out of much state-owned industry and the lifting of price controls, protectionist policies, and regulations, although state monopolies in sectors such as banking and petroleum remained. From 1978 until the recent global financial and economic crisis, unprecedented growth occurred, with the economy recording increases of almost 10% each year. China also managed to maintain growth during the crisis.

China’s “new normal” and slowdowns in other large emerging economies mean that the shifting wealth process will be slower regardless of other factors

After three decades of extraordinary economic development, China is moving gradually towards a lower growth path, sometimes called the “new normal”. Growth reached a peak of around 14% before the crisis in 2007 and has been slowing since then to slightly below 7% in 2015 (Figure 2.2). Even optimistic forecasts foresee growth at below 7% in the coming years (OECD, 2016a). China’s new normal is consistent with its transition towards a broad-based growth model, ensuring greater stability over the longer run, with a wider spread of the benefits of growth across society and less stress on a highly polluted environment.

Figure 2.2. The growth differential between China and more advanced countries is narrowing

Note: The figures for 2016 and 2017 are projections.

Source: OECD (2016), OECD Economic Outlook (June), www.oecd.org/eco/economicoutlook.htm.

StatLink  http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888933422095

Risks exist that the slowdown in China may be much faster than expected. Rapid investment growth in China came with strong credit growth, including in non-bank financial institutions, and has raised financial stability concerns as investment efficiency is losing ground (Bank for International Settlements, 2014; IMF, 2014). Caps on bank deposit rates led investors to search for higher-yielding assets at the same time as bank lending was constrained by the regulated loan-to-deposit ratio. As a result, lending outside the traditional banking sector towards riskier “shadow bank” lending surged (Elliott, Kroeber and Qiao, 2015). Corporate credit risk is further rising in China as exports are dropping rapidly relative to GDP, large companies are highly leveraged, anti-corruption campaigns reduce business activities and property prices are falling (Wong, 2014). The latter is a particular risk as special “shadow bank” vehicles used by local governments use land as collateral (Vandenberg and Zhuang, 2015). Recent stock market turbulences in China illustrate increasing market uncertainties about China’s transition towards more balanced growth, including, among others, concerns with respect to over-investment in certain sectors accompanied with a huge expansion of debt (Wolf, 2015). Beyond economic challenges, China faces inequality and environmental concerns...

Produkt-Details

• Erscheint lt. Verlag: 12.12.2016
• Sprache: englisch
• Themenwelt: Wirtschaft ► Volkswirtschaftslehre ► Makroökonomie
• ISBN-10: 92-64-26646-1 / 9264266461
• ISBN-13: 978-92-64-26646-9 / 9789264266469