Global International Economic Models (eBook)

Selected Papers from an IIASA Conference

B.G. Hickman (Herausgeber)

eBook Download: PDF

2014 | 1. Auflage
322 Seiten
Elsevier Science (Verlag)
978-1-4832-9873-3 (ISBN)

Infos

This volume surveys the state-of-the-art of global international modeling. All 15 models included in the survey feature national or regional disaggregation of the world economy and interdependencies among the various nations and regions. A few are constructed for short-term forecasting, but the primary focus is on long-run models and applications.Macroeconomic, input-output, general equilibrium, trade and exchange rate, and several hybrid models are included. A cross-sectional analysis by the editor compares the structures, linkage mechanisms, methodologies and applications of the various models and concludes with some observations on prospective research trends.

Inhalt

Front Cover 1
Global International Economic Models: Selected Papers from an IIASA Conference 4
Copyright Page 5
Table of Contents 10
INTRODUCTION TO THE SERIES 6
PREFACE 8
Part One: Survey of the Models 12
CHAPTER 1. A CROSS SECTION OF GLOBAL INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC MODELS 14
1 OVERVIEW OF THE MODELS 14
2 THE INDIVIDUAL PAPERS 18
3 LINKAGE MECHANISMS 22
4 METHODOLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS 29
5 APPLICATONS OF GLOBAL MODELS 32
6 FUTURE RESEARCH 35
Part Two: Macroeconometric Models 38
CHAPTER 2. LONG-TERM SIMULATIONS WITH THE PROJECT LINK SYSTEM, 1978-1985 40
1 INTRODUCTION 40
2 WHAT IS THE LINK SYSTEM? 40
3 THE APPROPRIATENESS OF INTERMEDIATE-TERM .ROJECTIONS 43
4 THE STATISTICAL METHODOLOGY 44
5 THE BASELINE CASE, 1978-1985 46
6 FISCAL POLICY SCENARIO 51
7 OIL-PRICE SCENARIOS 53
8 DYNAMIC INTERNATIONAL INCOME MULTIPLIERS 54
REFERENCES 61
COMMENTS 62
CHAPTER 3. LONG-TERM FORECASTS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS: SIMULATIONS WITH A WORLD ECONOMETRIC MODEL (T-FAIS IV) 64
1 INTRODUCTION 64
2 USE OF THE MODEL FOR LONG-TERM ANALYSIS 64
3 MAJOR ASSUMPTIONS FOR 1980-2000 66
4 THE RESULTS OF STANDARD FORECASTS 67
5 ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS - FURTHER RESEARCH 76
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 76
REFERENCES 77
COMMENTS 77
CHAPTER 4. THE STRUCTURE AND PROPERTIES OF THE MULTICOUNTRY MODEL 80
1 INTRODUCTION 80
2 THE PROTOTYPE COUNTRY MODEL 81
3 EVALUATION OF MODEL PERFORMANCE 83
4 FISCAL AND MONETARY MULTIPLIERS 86
5 CONCLUSIONS AND PLANS FOR FUTURE WORK 94
REFERENCES 95
CHAPTER 5. AN OUTLINE OF A MULTICOUNTRY ECONOMETRIC MODEL 96
1 INTRODUCTION 96
2 THE TRANSITION FROM THE THEORETICAL MODEL TO THE ECONOMETRIC MODEL 97
3 THE ECONOMETRIC MODEL 99
4 THE PROPERTIES OF THE MODEL 100
5 CONCLUSION 102
REFERENCES 103
COMMENTS 104
Part Three: General Equilibrium Models 108
CHAPTER 6. A GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY: SOME PRELIMINARY RESULTS 110
1 INTRODUCTION 110
2 THE MODEL 110
3 SIMULATION RESULTS: THE IMPACT OF HIGHER OIL PRICES 118
4 CONCLUSION 123
REFERENCES 124
COMMENTS 128
CHAPTER 7. GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELING OF TRADE LIBERALIZATION ISSUES AMONG MAJOR WORLD TRADE BLOCS 132
1 ...RODUCTI.. 132
2 THE STRUCTURE OF THE MODEL 134
3 "CALIBRATING" THE MODEL 140
4 APPLICATIONS OF THE MODEL 143
5 CONCLUSION 146
REFERENCES 147
COMMENTS 148
CHAPTER 8. A THREE-REGION MODEL OF ENERGY, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH 152
1 GENERAL BACKGROUND 152
2 THE BASIC SIMPLIFICATIONS 153
3 ALGEBRAIC FORMULATION 154
4 BASE-CASE ASSUMPTIONS AND RESULTS 157
5 ALTERNATIVE SUPPLY-DEMAND SCENARIOS 160
6 ELASTICITY ESTIMATES 162
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 163
REFERENCES 163
APPENDIX A: DEFINITION OF REGIONS, BASIC DATA, AND SOURCES 164
APPENDIX B: RESULTS FOR CASES A-G 167
COMMENTS 174
Part Four: Input–Output Models 176
CHAPTER 9. THE WORLD MODEL: AN INTERREGIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL OF THE WORLD ECONOMY 178
1 INTRODUCTION 178
2 THE STRUCTURE OF THE MODEL 179
3 ENUMERATION OF EQUATIONS AND VARIABLES 181
4 DATA 183
5 USE OF THE MODEL 184
REFERENCES 186
APPENDIX A: THE WORLD MODEL REGIONS AND UNITS USED IN APPENDIX . 187
APPENDIX .: THE BASE SCENARIO WITH MILITARY VARIABLES AGGREGATED TO THE WHOLE WORLD 188
COMMENTS 192
CHAPTER 10. LINKED INPUT–OUTPUT MODELS FOR FRANCE, THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY, AND BELGIUM 194
REFERENCES 210
COMMENTS 210
Part Five: Hybrid Models 212
CHAPTER 11. THE IMPACT OF PETROLEUM AND COMMODITY PRICES IN A MODEL OF THE WORLD ECONOMY 214
1 INTRODUCTION 214
2 A THEORETICAL WORLD MODEL WITH OIL AND COMMODITIES 215
3 PETROLEUM AND COMMODITY PRICES IN THE LINK SYSTEM 220
4 SOME "MISSING LINKS" 223
REFERENCES 225
APPENDIX 225
COMMENTS 228
CHAPTER 12. AN EVALUATION OF THE EFFECTS OF COMMODITY-PRICE INDEXATION ON DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING ECONOMIES: AN APPLICATION OF THE REMPIS MODEL 230
1 INTRODUCTION 230
2 THE INDEXATION SIMULATION: SOME ISSUES 230
3 THE REMPIS MODEL 233
4 THE RESULTS OF THE INDEXATION EXPERIMENT 237
5 CONCLUSIONS 242
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 244
REFERENCES 244
COMMENTS 245
CHAPTER 13. PROJECT FUGI AND THE FUTURE OF ESCAP DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 248
1 INTRODUCTION 248
2 THE FUGI INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL 249
3 THE FUGI MACROECONOMIC MODEL (FMEM) 256
4 CONCLUSION 264
REFERENCES 265
COMMENTS 265
CHAPTER 14. DYNAMICO: A MULTILEVEL PROGRAMMING MODEL OF WORLD TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT 270
1 INTRODUCTION 270
2 DYNAMICO: A QUANTITATIVE FRAMEWORK FOR POLICY ANALYSIS 271
3 THE WORLD ECONOMY IN 1980: REALITY AND ITS PERCEPTION 281
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 286
REFERENCES 286
COMMENTS 287
Part Six: Trade and Exchange Rate Models 292
CHAPTER 15. STRUCTURAL CHANGES AND DEVELOPMENT ALTERNATIVES IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE 294
1 INTRODUCTION 294
2 A BRIEF OUTLINE OF THE MODEL AND METHODS 298
3 STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE: 1955–1977 298
REFERENCES 306
CHAPTER 16. A MODEL OF TRADE AND EXCHANGE RATES 308
1 INTRODUCTION 308
2 THE INTERNATIONAL LINKAGE MODEL 309
3 SIMULATIONS WITH THE MODEL 315
REFERENCES 322
COMMENTS 322
AUTHOR INDEX 326

Produkt-Details

• Erscheint lt. Verlag: 28.6.2014
• Sprache: englisch
• Themenwelt: Wirtschaft ► Betriebswirtschaft / Management ► Unternehmensführung / Management
• Themenwelt: Wirtschaft ► Volkswirtschaftslehre ► Makroökonomie
• Themenwelt: Wirtschaft ► Volkswirtschaftslehre ► Ökonometrie
• ISBN-10: 1-4832-9873-6 / 1483298736
• ISBN-13: 978-1-4832-9873-3 / 9781483298733