Economics and Artificial Intelligence (eBook)

Proceedings of the IFAC/IFORS/IFIP/IASC/AFCET Conference, Aix-en-Provence, France, 2-4 September 1986

Jean-Louis Roos (Herausgeber)

eBook Download: PDF

2014 | 1. Auflage
210 Seiten
Elsevier Science (Verlag)
978-1-4831-9106-5 (ISBN)

Infos

Economics and Artificial Intelligence documents the proceedings of the IFAC/IFORS/IFIP/IASC/AFCET Conference held in Aix-en-Provence, France on September 2-4, 1986. This book discusses the design of intelligent dialogue in D.S.S. qualitative modeling of economic studies; basic propositions for intelligent systems design methods; and expert systems for confirmatory data analysis. The artificial intelligence for transaction cost economizing; knowledge-based evaluation of strategic investments; and reasoning system for the guidance of technological transfer are also elaborated. This text likewise covers the A.I. impacts on the process of the division of labor; using automated techniques to generate expert systems for R&D project monitoring; and intelligent support to decision making process. This compilation is a good reference for students and researchers conducting work on the nature of economics and artificial intelligence.

Inhalt

Front Cover 1
Economics and Artificial Intelligence 4
Copyright Page 5
Table of Contents 12
PREFACE 8
CHAPTER 1. TRENDS IN COGNITIVE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY 16
1. INTRODUCTION 16
2. STAGE TWO: THE COGNITIVIST HYPOTHESIS 16
3. STAGE THREE: THE SELF-ORGANIZATION ALTERNATIVE 17
4. STAGE FOUR: THE ENACTIVE ALTERNATIVE 18
5. CONCLUSIONS 20
Acknowledgments 20
CHAPTER 2. PROVIDING STATISTICAL EXPERTISE FOR ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ANALYSIS 24
ABSTRACT 24
1. Why Apply Artificial Intelligence in Statistics? 24
2. Computing Challenges for Statistical Expertise 24
3. REX: A Feasibility Demonstration 25
4. Student: How to Acquire Data Analytic Strategy 26
5. Summary 28
REFERENCES 28
CHAPTER 3. DESIGN OF INTELLIGENT DIALOGUE IN DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS 30
Abstract 30
Keywords 30
INTRODUCTION 30
INTERACTIVITY IN A DSS 30
DIALOGUE AND INTERACTIVITY 32
FRAMEWORK FOR A DIALOGUE GENERATOR 32
INTELLIGENT BEHAVIOUR OF DSS DIALOGUE 33
CONCLUSION 34
REFERENCES 34
CHAPTER 4. THE EDSEL SYNDROME, OR: IT IS HARD TO GIVE UP A PROMISING, BUT STILL FRUITLESS LARGE INVESTMENT 36
ABSTRACT 36
1. INTRODUCTION: A LITTLE BACKGROUND 36
2. ESTIMATED DISTANCES TO THE SOLUTION 36
3. The Edsel Syndrome 37
4. CONCLUSIONS: FIGHTING THE EDSEL SYNDROME 38
5. REFERENCE 38
CHAPTER 5. EXPERT SYSTEMS FOR THE ANALYSIS AND SYNTHESIS OF STRATEGIC POLICY 40
INTRODUCTION 40
POLICY STRUCTURES 40
EXPERT SYSTEM ELEMENTS OF POLICY STRUCTURES 41
ALTERNATIVES AND CONTEXTS FOR POLICY STRUCTURES 43
AN OPERATIONAL EXAMPLE 43
CONCLUSIONS 44
REFERENCES 44
CHAPTER 6. THE A.I. IMPACTS ON THE PROCESS OF THE DIVISION OF LABOR 46
Abstract 46
Keywords 46
INTRODUCTION 46
PROCESS OF DIVISION OF LABOR AND KNOWLEDGE 47
EXAMPLES OF ANALYSIS 48
CORSO and RECORSO 51
SYSTEMS SCIENCES 51
CONCLUSIONS 51
REFERENCES 51
CHAPTER 7. INDIVIDUAL ALIENATION AND SYSTEMS INTELLIGENCE 52
Abstract 52
Keywords 52
THE LOGICAL AND EPISTEMOLOGICAL FOUNDATIONS OF THE CONCEPT OF EQUILIBRIUM IN ECONOMICS AND IN THE SOCIAL SCIENCES 52
VON FOERSTER'S CONJECTURE 53
CONCLUSION 55
Acknowledgements 55
REFERENCES 55
CHAPTER 8. QUALITATIVE MODELING OF ECONOMIC SYSTEMS 56
INTRODUCTION 56
QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE MODELS 57
QUALITATIVE SIMULATION 57
QUALITATIVE ECONOMICS 58
CONCLUSION 59
REFERENCES 59
CHAPTER 9. AN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE TOOL FOR THE SIMULATION OF COMPLEX SYSTEMS: THE MULTI-EXPERT SYSTEM 60
ABSTRACT 60
INTRODUCTION 60
MULTI-DISCIPLINARITY AND INTER-DISCIPLINARITY 60
CONCLUSION 61
DESIGN METHODOLOGY 62
THE MULTI-EXPERT SYSTEM: SATIN 62
REFERENCES 63
CHAPTER 10. HOW CAN CREATIVITY AND AUTOMATION GET ALONG: A CONTRIBUTION TO DESIGN METHODS 64
ABSTRACT 64
SOURCES AND RESOURCES OF KNOWLEDGE 65
CONCLUSION 69
REFERENCES 69
CHAPTER 11. INTELLIGENT MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS: DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION 70
Abstract 70
Keywords 70
INTRODUCTION 70
EXPERT SYSTEMS 70
PREMISES UNDERLYING THE USEFULLNESS OF EXPERT SYSTEMS 71
BIBLIOGRAPHY 75
CHAPTER 12. USING AUTOMATED TECHNIQUES TO GENERATE AN EXPERT SYSTEM FOR R& D PROJECT MONITORING
ABSTRACT 76
KEYWORDS 76
I. Introduction 76
II. Commercial R& D Projects
III. Evaluation of R& D Projects
IV. The RDCHECK Expert System 78
V. Comparison of the MACIE Process With Other Automated Tools 78
VI. Conclusions and Future Research 79
REFERENCES 79
CHAPTER 13. BASIC PROPOSITIONS FOR INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS DESIGN METHODS 82
Abstract 82
Keywords 82
INTRODUCTION 82
WHAT IS THE PROBLEM? 82
THE FUNCTIONAL BASIS IN FAVOUR OF THIS COORDINATED DESIGN 82
THE CONCEPTS ABLE TO LEAD THIS COHERENT DESIGN 83
STUDY OF PARAMETERS FOR E.S. TYPING 83
STUDY OF PARAMETERS FOR I.S. DESIGN METHODS TYPING 85
RESULTS 85
REALIZATION 85
UNSOLVED PROBLEMS 86
INTEREST FOR THE MEDICAL FIELD 86
REFERENCES 86
CHAPTER 14. KNOWLEDGE BASES FOR NUCLEAR PLANTS 88
ABSTRACT 88
1. METHODOLOGICAL ADVANTAGES 88
2 ASSISTANCE IN ALARMS AND OPERATIONAL MANAGEMENT 89
3. COMPUTER-ASSISSTED RELIABILITY 90
4. CONCLUSION 91
5. REFERENCES 91
CHAPTER 15. KNOWLEDGE REPRESENTATION AND REASONING IN AN INTELLIGENT DOCUMENTARY SYSTEM 92
INTRODUCTION 92
KNOWLEDGE REPRESENTATION / DEFINING A FORMALISM FOR INFORMATION STORAGE 92
AN ATTEMPT AT FORMALIZATION OF REASONING 94
CONCLUSION 94
REFERENCES 95
CHAPTER 16. EXPERT SYSTEMS FOR CONFIRMATORY DATA ANALYSIS 98
ABSTRACT 98
KEY WORDS 98
1. AN APPRAISAL OF THE STATISTICAL PROBLEM 98
THE PROCEEDURE LEADING TO ß IS LINEAR, ALGORITH-MIC, WITH ALL OF THE CLASSICAL HYPOTHESES 99
CHAPTER 17. KNOWLEDGE-BASED ANALYSIS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC PANEL DATA 102
Abstract 102
Keywords 102
INTRODUCTION 102
STATISTICAL DATA BASE 102
DESIGN OF THE KNOWLEDGE BASE 103
METHODS SUPPORT 104
CONCLUSIONS 104
REFERENCES 104
CHAPTER 18. INTELLIGENT SUPPORT TO DECISION MAKING PROCESS 106
Abstract 106
Keywords 106
INTRODUCTION 106
REPRESENTATIONS 106
STRUCTURING AIDS 108
RENFORCEMENT 108
PRECISION 108
GENERALIZATION 108
FUNCTIONNING 108
PERSPECTIVE 108
REFERENCES 108
CHAPTER 19. ENTERPRISE-WIDE INFORMATION MANAGEMENT CONSULTANT: A FUNCTIONAL OVERVIEW 110
Abstract 110
Keywords 110
INTRODUCTION 110
EwIMC ARCHITECTURE 111
EwIMC PRIMARY FUNCTIONS 111
EwIM ENCYCLOPEDIA 112
DIALOG MANAGER AND DRIVERS 112
SERVICE FUNCTIONS 112
DATA BASES, USER WORKSPACE, AND TOOL BOX 112
CONCLUDING REMARKS 112
REFERENCES 113
CHAPTER 20. A DECISION THEORETIC PERSPECTIVE OF THE INTEGRATED HUMAN-MACHINE INFORMATION PROCESSOR 114
Abstract 114
Keywords 114
1. INTRODUCTION 114
2. A MODEL OF DECISION MAKING 115
3. AN EXTENDED MODEL OF DECISION MAKING 116
4. CONCLUSION 119
5. REFERENCES 119
CHAPTER 21. DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS (DSS): A KNOWLEDGE ORIENTED APPROACH 120
Abstract 120
Keywords 120
1 INTRODUCTION 120
2 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK NORMALLY USEDIN DSS 120
3 PRESENT DSS LIMITATIONS 121
4 A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK BASED ON THE KNOWLEDGE PROCESSING 121
5 CONCLUSION 123
REFERENCES 123
CHAPTER 22. MACRO-ECONOMIC FORECASTING AND EXPERT SYSTEMS 124
Abstract 124
Keywords 124
ECONOMIC DIAGNOSIS AND FORECASTING: NEED FOR EXPERT SYSTEMS 124
CAUSALITY AND CAUSALSTRUCTURES 125
CHAPTER 23. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE FOR TRANSACTION COST ECONOMIZING 130
ABSTRACTS 130
KEYWORDS 130
THE TRANSACTION COST APPROACH TO THE STUDY OF ECONOMIC ORGANISATION 130
TRANSACTION GOVERNANCE STRUCTURE AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE SEARCH 131
EXPERT KNOWLEDGE IN A COMPUTER SYSTEM 131
EXPERT SYSTEM AS A TOOL FOR TRANSACTION COST ECONOMIZING 132
REFERENCES 132
CHAPTER 24. ECONOMICS AS REASONING ON A QUALITATIVE MODEL 136
ABSTRACT 136
INTRODUCTION 136
1 QUALITATIVE MODELING 136
2 QUALITATIVE MODELING OF MACROECONOMICS 137
CONCLUSION 139
REFERENCES 139
CHAPTER 25. TRADER: A KNOWLEDGE-BASED SYSTEM FOR TRADING IN MARKETS 142
Abstract 142
Keywords 142
0. INTRODUCTION 142
1. MARKETS ARE OPEN SYSTEMS 142
2. DYNAMIC THEORY OF MARKET ADJUSTMENT 143
3. A DESCRIPTION OF TRADER 143
4. MARKET EXPERIMENT ll-44 143
5. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN 144
6. EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS 145
7. FUTURE RESEARCH PROGRAM 146
REFERENCES 146
CHAPTER 26. PLANNING FOR AND CONTROL OF INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS 148
Abstract 148
Keywords 148
INTRODUCTION 148
SOFTWARE ENGINEERING, AI TOOLS, AND NEW METHODOLOGIES 149
CONCLUSIONS 150
BIBLIOGRAPHY 151
CHAPTER 27. KNOWLEDGE-BASED EVALUATION OF STRATEGIC INVESTMENTS 152
Abstract 152
Keywords 152
1. INTRODUCTION 152
2. THE STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT OF AN ORGANIZATION 152
3. THE PRINCIPLES OF ANALYSIS 154
4. ICON-BASED KNOWLEDGE REPRESENTATION 155
5. IMPLEMENTATION TECHNIQUES 155
6. CONCLUSIONS 156
7. LITERATURE 157
CHAPTER 28. ENTERPRISE-WIDE INFORMATION MANAGEMENT: AN EXPERT SYSTEM FOR ASSESSING ORGANIZATIONAL FUNCTIONING AND PROBLEM AREAS 158
Abstract 158
Keywords 158
INTRODUCTION 158
EwIM FRAMEWORK 158
LIVING SYSTEMS 159
SUMMARY 159
REFERENCES 160
CHAPTER 29. A LOGICAL THEORY OF DECISION ON FINITE FIELDS 164
ABSTRACT 164
KEY WORDS 164
I. INTRODUCTION 164
II. SOME CLASSICAL BACKGROUND IN LOGICAL THEORY 164
lll. CONJECTURAL PREDICATES AND LOGICAL FILTERS 165
IV. COMPLETE INSTANCIATION OF A PREDICATE 166
V. SOME SIMPLE APPLICATIONS IN INTEGER LINEAR PROGRAMMING 166
VI. BIBLIOGRAPHY 166
CHAPTER 30. S.E-A.C.: AN EXPERT SYSTEM FOR LOAN GRANTING 168
Abstract 168
Keywords 168
INTRODUCTION 168
THE EXPERT SYSTEM APPROACH 168
EXPERT SYSTEMS IN FINANCIAL ANALYSIS 169
THE RISK ANALYSIS PROCESS 169
DESCRIPTION OF SEAC 170
KNOWLEDGE REPRESENTATION 171
CONCLUSION 172
REFERENCES 172
CHAPTER 31. CRITERIA TO SELECT EXPERT SYSTEMS FOR BUSINESS USE 174
Abstract 174
Keywords 174
1. Introduction 174
2. Evaluation criteria for business use 174
3. Summary 175
4. Footnotes 175
CHAPTER 32. ON DISTRIBUTING THE INTELLIGENCE OF ECONOMIC PROCESSES 176
Abstract 176
Keywords 176
INTRODUCTION 176
GOAL-DIRECTED AUCTIONS 176
COMMUNICATIONS BETWEEN AUCTIONS 177
CONCLUSION 177
REFERENCES 177
CHAPTER 33. DEVELOPMENTS AND APPLICATIONS OF EXPERT SYSTEMS IN GERMANY 178
Abstract 178
Keywords 178
PREFACE 178
METHODOLOGY 178
OVERVIEW BY FUNCTIONAL AREAS 178
RUNNING SYSTEMS IN GERMAN-SPEAKING COUNTRIES 178
OTHER DEVELOPMENTS IN GERMAN-SPEAKING COUNTRIES 180
OWN EXPERIMENTS 181
GENERAL REMARKS, SUMMARY, AND CONCLUSIONS 182
REFERENCES 183
CHAPTER 34. A HYBRID APPROACH TO INFORMATION AND DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS: HAZARDOUS SUBSTANCES AND INDUSTRIAL RISK MANAGEMENT 184
Abstract 184
Keywords 184
Expert Systems and Decision Support 184
A Hybrid Approach to Model-based Decision Support 184
The Problem Area: Management of Hazardous Substances and Industrial Risk 185
Model Integration and the User Interface 185
Heterarchical, Object-oriented Information System on Hazardous Substances 186
Data Bases, Simulation, and Optimization 187
References 188
CHAPTER 35. DESIGNING ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURES: AN EXPERT SYSTEM METHOD 192
Abstract 192
Keywords 192
ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE AND DESIGN 192
THE M1 SYSTEM 192
AN EXPERT SYSTEM FOR ORGANIZATIONAL DESIGN 193
AN EXPERT SYSTEM TO DESIGN ORGANISATION STRUCTURES: THE SKELETON 193
AN ILLUSTRATION 194
IS THERE KNOWLEDGE IN ORGANIZATION THEORY 195
ORGANIZATIONAL DESIGN: PRECURSORS AND NEW FRONTIERS 195
THE MANY VALUES OF AN EXPERT SYSTEM 196
CONCLUSION: FUTURE COURSE 196
REFERENCES 196
CHAPTER 36. A REASONING SYSTEM FOR THE GUIDANCE OF TECHNOLOGICAL TRANSFER 198
KEY-WORDS 198
ABSTRACT 198
INNOVATION AND ITS PROCESS 198
THE SUPERVISOR 199
THE TECHNOLOGY EXPERTISE 199
THE ECONOMIC EXPERTISE 199
THE LEGAL SUBUNIT 199
EXPERT CO-OPERATION 200
SATIN'S IMPACT ON REGIONAL ECONOMY 200
REFERENCES 201
CHAPTER 37. ENTERPRISE-WIDE INFORMATION MANAGEMENT CONSULTANT: USE OF EXPERT SYSTEMS IN BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION FUNCTIONS 202
Abstract 202
Keywords 202
INTRODUCTION 202
USE OF EXPERT SYSTEMS 202
APPLICABILITY OF EXPERT SYSTEMS 202
POSSIBLE APPLICATIONS 203
THE IMPLEMENTATION 203
CONCLUSIONS 203
REFERENCES 204
AUTHOR INDEX 206
SUBJECT INDEX 208

Produkt-Details

• Erscheint lt. Verlag: 9.5.2014
• Sprache: englisch
• Themenwelt: Schulbuch / Wörterbuch ► Lexikon / Chroniken
• Themenwelt: Informatik ► Theorie / Studium ► Künstliche Intelligenz / Robotik
• Themenwelt: Mathematik / Informatik ► Mathematik
• Themenwelt: Wirtschaft ► Allgemeines / Lexika
• Themenwelt: Wirtschaft ► Betriebswirtschaft / Management
• Themenwelt: Wirtschaft ► Volkswirtschaftslehre
• ISBN-10: 1-4831-9106-0 / 1483191060
• ISBN-13: 978-1-4831-9106-5 / 9781483191065