Playing against Nature (eBook)

Integrating Science and Economics to Mitigate Natural Hazards in an Uncertain World

Seth Stein, Jerome Stein (Autoren)

eBook Download: EPUB | PDF

2014
John Wiley & Sons (Verlag)
9781118620816 (ISBN)

Infos

Defending society against natural hazards is a high-stakes game of chance against nature, involving tough decisions, How should a developing nation allocate its budget between building schools for towns without ones or making existing schools earthquake-resistant? Does it make more sense to build levees to protect against floods, or to prevent development in the areas at risk? Would more lives be saved by making hospitals earthquake-resistant, or using the funds for patient care? What should scientists tell the public when - as occurred in L'Aquila, Italy and Mammoth Lakes, California - there is a real but small risk of an upcoming earthquake or volcanic eruption?  Recent hurricanes, earthquakes, and tsunamis show that society often handles such choices poorly, Sometimes nature surprises us, when an earthquake, hurricane, or flood is bigger or has greater effects than expected from detailed hazard assessments, In other cases, nature outsmarts us, doing great damage despite expensive mitigation measures or causing us to divert limited resources to mitigate hazards that are overestimated, Much of the problem comes from the fact that formulating effective natural hazard policy involves combining science, economics, and risk analysis to analyze a problem and explore the costs and benefits of different options, in situations where the future is very uncertain, Because mitigation policies are typically chosen without such analysis, the results are often disappointing, This book uses general principles and case studies to explore how we can do better by taking an integrated view of natural hazards issues, rather than treating the relevant geoscience, engineering, economics, and policy formulation separately, Thought-provoking questions at the end of each chapter invite readers to confront the complex issues involved,

Readership: Instructors, researchers, practitioners, and students interested in geoscience, engineering, economics, or policy issues relevant to natural hazards, Suitable for upper-level undergraduate or graduate courses,

Additional resources can be found at: http://www,wiley,com/go/Stein/Playingagainstnature

Seth Stein, Deering Professor of Geological Sciences at Northwestern University, is a seismologist interested in the science of large earthquakes and earthquake hazard mitigation, He has been awarded the James B, Macelwane Medal of the American Geophysical Union, the George Woollard Award of the Geological Society of America, the Stephan Mueller Medal of the European Geosciences Union, the Price Medal of the Royal Astronomical Society and a Humboldt Foundation Research Award,
The late Jerome Stein, who was Eastman Professor of Economics at Brown University, had interests including decision theory and formation of public policy,

Inhalt

Cover 1
Title page 7
Copyright page 8
Contents 9
Preface 13
Acknowledgments 16
Note on Further Reading and Sources 18
About the Companion Website 20
1: A Tricky, High-Stakes Game 21
1.1 Where We Are Today 21
1.2 What We Need to Do Better 26
1.3 How Can We Do Better? 34
Questions 37
Further Reading and Sources 39
References 40
2: When Nature Won 42
2.1 The Best-Laid Plans 42
2.2 Why Hazard Assessment Went Wrong 44
2.3 How Mitigation Fared 50
2.4 The Challenges Ahead 52
Questions 55
Further Reading and Sources 55
References 56
3: Nature Bats Last 58
3.1 Prediction Is Hard 58
3.2 Forecasts, Predictions, and Warnings 60
3.3 Earthquake Prediction 65
3.4 Chaos 70
Questions 73
Further Reading and Sources 74
References 75
4: Uncertainty and Probability 77
4.1 Basic Ideas 77
4.2 Compound Events 80
4.3 The Gaussian Distribution 84
4.4 Probability vs Statistics 88
4.5 Shallow and Deep Uncertainties 90
Questions 92
Further Reading and Sources 93
References 94
5: Communicating What We Know and What We Don’t 95
5.1 Recognizing and Admitting Uncertainties 95
5.2 Precision and Accuracy 101
5.3 Testing Forecasts 103
5.4 Communicating Forecasts 106
Questions 113
Further Reading and Sources 114
References 115
6: Human Disasters 117
6.1 Assessing Hazards 117
6.2 Vulnerability and Interconnections 119
6.3 The 2008 US Financial Disaster 121
6.4 Pseudodisasters and Groupthink 125
6.5 Disaster Chic 129
Questions 130
Further Reading and Sources 132
References 133
7: How Much Is Enough? 135
7.1 Rational Policy Making 135
7.2 Lessons from National Defense 139
7.3 Making Choices 142
7.4 Uncertainty and Risk Aversion 144
7.5 Present and Future Value 146
7.6 Valuing Lives 149
7.7 Implications for Natural Hazard Mitigation 151
Questions 152
Further Reading and Sources 154
References 155
8: Guessing the Odds 156
8.1 Big Events Are Rare 156
8.2 Time-Independent Probability Models 160
8.3 Time-Dependent Probability Models 165
Questions 169
Further Reading and Sources 170
References 170
9: When’s the Next Earthquake? 171
9.1 A Very Tough Problem 171
9.2 Earthquake Frequency-Magnitude Relation 172
9.3 Earthquake Cycle Model 178
9.4 Computing Earthquake Probabilities 188
9.5 Shaky Probabilities 190
Questions 192
Further Reading and Sources 194
References 195
10: Assessing Hazards 196
10.1 Five Tough Questions 196
10.2 Uncertainties 197
10.3 How Is the Hazard Defined? 198
10.4 Where Will Large Earthquakes Occur? 202
10.5 When Will Large Earthquakes Occur? 207
10.6 How Big Will the Large Earthquakes Be? 210
10.7 How Much Shaking? 214
10.8 Dealing With the Uncertainties 216
10.9 Next Steps 220
Questions 221
Further Reading and Sources 221
References 222
11: Mitigating Hazards 224
11.1 Approaches 224
11.2 Accepting Risk 225
11.3 Transferring Risk 226
11.4 Avoiding Risk 227
11.5 Mitigating Risk 228
11.6 Combined Strategies 233
Questions 234
Further Reading and Sources 237
References 237
12: Choosing Mitigation Policies 240
12.1 Making Choices 240
12.2 House Fire Mitigation 243
12.3 Losses from Hazards 247
12.4 Optimal Natural Hazard Mitigation 248
12.5 Nonoptimal Natural Hazard Mitigation 252
12.6 Mitigation Given Uncertainties 253
12.7 Robust Policy Making 255
Questions 258
Further Reading and Sources 259
References 260
13: Doing Better 261
13.1 Final Thoughts 261
13.2 Community Decision Making 262
13.3 Improved Organization 264
Questions 268
Further Reading and Sources 269
References 269
Index 271
Supplemental Images 283

Produkt-Details

• Erscheint lt. Verlag: 9.4.2014
• Reihe/Serie: Wiley Works
• Reihe/Serie: Wiley Works
• Reihe/Serie: Wiley Works
• Sprache: englisch
• Themenwelt: Naturwissenschaften ► Biologie ► Ökologie / Naturschutz
• Themenwelt: Naturwissenschaften ► Geowissenschaften ► Geologie
• Themenwelt: Technik
• Themenwelt: Wirtschaft ► Volkswirtschaftslehre
• Schlagworte: allocate • Areas • budget between • Care • Chance • earthquakeresistant • earth sciences • emergency management • Environmental Management, Policy & Planning • Environmental Studies • floods • Funds • Game • Geophysics • Geophysik • Geowissenschaften • Hazards • highstakes • Hospitals • Katastrophenschutz • laquila • levees • Nation • NATURAL • Patient • Public • Risk • schools • scientists • security management • Sicherheitsmanagement • Society • tough • Towns • Umweltforschung • Umweltmanagement, Politik u. -Planung
• ISBN-13: 9781118620816 / 9781118620816