Coping with Global Environmental Change, Disasters and Security (eBook)
CII, 1818 Seiten
Springer Berlin (Verlag)
978-3-642-17776-7 (ISBN)
Coping with Global Environmental Change, Disasters and Security - Threats, Challenges, Vulnerabilities and Risks reviews conceptual debates and case studies focusing on disasters and security threats, challenges, vulnerabilities and risks in Europe, the Mediterranean and other regions.
It discusses social science concepts of vulnerability and risks, global, regional and national security challenges, global warming, floods, desertification and drought as environmental security challenges, water and food security challenges and vulnerabilities, vulnerability mapping of environmental security challenges and risks, contributions of remote sensing to the recognition of security risks, mainstreaming early warning of conflicts and hazards and provides conceptual and policy conclusions.
Hans Günter Brauch, Adj. Prof. (PD) at the Free University of Berlin, chairman of AFES-PRESS, senior fellow at UNU-EHS in Bonn and editor of this series; he publishes on security and environment issues. ula Oswald Spring, Professor at UNAM-CRIM, xico; first UNU-EHS chair on social vulnerability; she writes on sustainability, development, gender, disaster, poverty and collaborates with peasants.
John Grin, Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Amsterdam; he publishes on societal transformations in water management, agriculture and health care, and advices practitioners.
Czeslaw Mesjasz, Assoc. Professor, Management, Cracow University of Economics; he publishes on systems and game theory, conflict resolution, negotiation, economics, finance and security.
Patricia Kameri-Mbote, Professor, Strathmore University; Programme Director, International Environmental Law Research Centre, Nairobi; she writes on law, development, property, environment and gender.
Béchir Chourou, Director, University of Tunis-Carthage, he taught International Relations at University of Tunis; he publishes on Euro-Mediterranean relations, food policy and human security in the Arab world.Pal Dunay, Faculty Member, Geneva Centre for Security Policy, Director of International Training Course in Security Policy; he publishes on European security, the post-Soviet space and conventional arms control.
Jörn Birkmann, Adj. Prof. (PD) at Bonn University, Head, Vulnerability Assessment, Risk Management and Adaptive Planning Section, United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security.
Hans Günter Brauch, Adj. Prof. (PD) at the Free University of Berlin, chairman of AFES-PRESS, senior fellow at UNU-EHS in Bonn and editor of this series; he publishes on security and environment issues. ula Oswald Spring, Professor at UNAM-CRIM, xico; first UNU-EHS chair on social vulnerability; she writes on sustainability, development, gender, disaster, poverty and collaborates with peasants.John Grin, Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Amsterdam; he publishes on societal transformations in water management, agriculture and health care, and advices practitioners.Czeslaw Mesjasz, Assoc. Professor, Management, Cracow University of Economics; he publishes on systems and game theory, conflict resolution, negotiation, economics, finance and security.Patricia Kameri-Mbote, Professor, Strathmore University; Programme Director, International Environmental Law Research Centre, Nairobi; she writes on law, development, property, environment and gender.Béchir Chourou, Director, University of Tunis-Carthage, he taught International Relations at University of Tunis; he publishes on Euro-Mediterranean relations, food policy and human security in the Arab world.Pal Dunay, Faculty Member, Geneva Centre for Security Policy, Director of International Training Course in Security Policy; he publishes on European security, the post-Soviet space and conventional arms control.Jörn Birkmann, Adj. Prof. (PD) at Bonn University, Head, Vulnerability Assessment, Risk Management and Adaptive Planning Section, United Nations University, Institute for Environment and Human Security.
Foreword 6
Foreword 8
Foreword 10
Foreword 12
Foreword 14
Contents 18
Acknowledgements 28
Permissions and Credits 32
Prefaces 54
The Anthropocene: Geology by Mankind 56
Connecting Inconvenient Truths: Urgency of Nuclear Disarmament in a World of Pressing Problems¹ 58
Living in and Coping with World Risk Society 64
Old Dangers - New Risks: What is New About World Risk Society? 64
The Ruse of Risk: Global Risk is an Unpredictable and Impersonal Force in the Contemporary World 66
Consequences and Perspectives 67
Population Prospects and the Challenges of Sustainability 70
The Sensitivity of Long-term Population Trends to Deviations from Zero Population Growth 71
The Increasing World Urbanization 72
Towards a Great Land-Use Transformation? 76
The Climate Change Challenge and LanduseMitigation Options 76
The Earth’s Carrying Capacity Conundrum 77
The Great Land-use Transformation 78
Global Agricultural Commons: A Proposal 80
Part I Introduction: Concepts of Security Threats, Challenges, Vulnerabilities and Risks 82
1 Introduction: Coping with Global Environmental Change in the Anthropocene 83
1.1 Introduction and Objectives of the Book 83
1.1.1 Contextual Change from the Holocene to the Anthropocene 83
1.1.2 Structure of the Environmental Security Handbook 85
1.1.3 Three Stages of Addressing Global Environmental Change 85
1.2 Three Debates on GEC, Security and Disasters 90
1.2.1 Focus on GEC: Approaches from the Natural Sciences 91
1.2.2 Focus on Security: Approaches of the Social Sciences 92
1.2.3 Focus on Natural Hazards and Societal Disasters 92
1.3 Coping with GEC and Hazards with Adaptation, Mitigation and Resilience Building 92
1.3.1 Phases of Scientization, Politicization and Securitization 94
1.3.1.3 Securitization 95
1.3.2 Coping with GEC 95
1.3.3 Mitigation Against GEC 96
1.3.5 Protection, Empowerment and Resilience Building 98
1.4 Dialogue Among Three Scientific Epistemic Communities on Global Change, Security and Disaster 99
1.4.1 Security Community 99
1.4.2 Natural Hazard and Disaster Community 101
1.4.3 Global Change Community 102
1.4.4 Towards a New Interdisciplinary Epistemic Community 102
1.5 Horizontal Cooperation Among Ministries and International Organizations on GEC, Security and Disasters 103
1.6 Key Questions and Structure of the Book 103
1.6.1 Concepts of Security Threats, Challenges, Vulnerabilities and Risks 105
1.6.2 Military and Political Security Threats, Challenges, Vulnerabilities and Risks 105
1.6.3 Environmental and Human Security Dangers in the Near East and Three Regional Prospects until 2020 and 2050 106
1.6.4 Threats, Challenges, Vulnerabilities and Risks for Urban Centres in Hazards and Disasters 107
1.6.5 Coping with Global Environmental Change: Climate Change, Desertification, Water Management, Food and Health 107
1.6.6 Coping with Hazards and Strategies for Social Vulnerability and Resilience Building 109
1.6.8 Vulnerability Mapping and Environmental Security Indicators 111
1.6.9 Improved Early Warning of Conflicts and Hazards 111
1.6.10 Summary and Conclusions 112
1.7 Concluding Remark 112
2 Concepts of Security Threats, Challenges, Vulnerabilities and Risks 113
2.1 Introduction 113
2.2 Reconceptualizing ‘Security Threats’ 114
2.2.2 ‘Threat’ as a Scientific Concept 114
2.2.3 Redefining the Concept of ‘Threat’ to Security since 1990 115
2.2.4 Application of a Widened Concept of Security Threats 116
2.3 Reconceptualizing ‘Security Challenges’ . 118
2.4 Reconceptualizing ‘Security Vulnerabilities’ 119
2.4.1 The Political and Societal Term of ‘Vulnerability’ 119
2.4.2 Vulnerability as a Scientific Concept 120
2.4.3 Vulnerability as a Scientific Concept in the Global Change Research Community 122
2.4.4 Vulnerability as a Political and Scientific Concept in the Climate Research Community 123
2.4.5 Vulnerability as a Political and ScientificConcept in the Hazard Research Community 125
2.4.6 Vulnerability in the Environment, Development and Early Warning Community 127
2.4.7 ‘Social Vulnerability’ in the Hazard and Development Research and Policy Community 129
2.4.8 The Vulnerability Concept in Strategic and Security Studies 130
2.5.2 Risk as a Political and Scientific Concept in Encyclopaedias 131
2.5.4 The Debate on ‘Risk’ and ‘Risk Society’ in the Social Sciences 132
2.5.5 From Security and Defence Policy to the Management of Political Risks 135
2.5.6 ‘Reflexive Security’ and ‘Risk Society’ as Key Concepts of Security Studies 137
2.5.7 Global and Regional Environmental Risk as a Scientific Concept 138
2.5.8 Risk as a Scientific Concept in the Hazard Community 140
2.5.9 Risk as a Practical Concept in the Hazard Research Community 143
2.5.10 From Yokohama to Kobe: Global Policy Goals for Natural Disaster Prevention, Preparedness, and Mitigation 145
2.6 Environmental Security Threats, Challenges, Vulnerabilities and Risks 146
2.6.1 The Environment as New ‘Threats’ to National Security 146
2.6.2 ‘Environmental Security Agenda’ as an Object of Securitization 149
2.6.3 ‘Environmental Security Issues’ as New Causes of Conflicts 150
2.6.4 Environmental Security ‘Threats’, ‘Challenges’, ‘Vulnerabilities’, and ‘Risks’ 151
2.6.5 Environmental Factors as Security Threats, Challenges, Vulnerabilities, and Risks 151
2.6.6 Proactive Security Response Strategies 153
2.7 Human Security Threats, Challenges, Vulnerabilities, and Risks 154
2.7.2 Human Security Threats, Challenges, Vulnerability, and Risks 155
2.8 Conclusions for Research and Policy Suggestions 156
3 Disaster Risk and Vulnerability: Concepts and Measurement of Human and Environmental Insecurity 159
3.1 Introduction 159
3.2.1 Conceptual Approaches 161
3.2.2 Objectivism and Constructivism 161
3.2.3 Individualism and Structuralism 162
3.3 Conceptual Framework for Decision-making Effectiveness 163
3.3.1 Differences between Risk and Disaster 164
3.3.2 Disaster Risk as Potential of Crisis 164
3.4 Vulnerability as a Key Concept 166
3.4.1 Quantifying and Applying the Model 168
3.5 Territorial Safety as an Object of Risk Management 169
3.5.1 Risk as a Measure of Human and Environmental Insecurity 171
3.5.2 Politics and the Decision-making Process 172
4 Economic Vulnerability and Economic Security 174
4.1 Introduction 174
4.2 Vulnerability in the Security-related Discourse 176
4.2.1 Definitions and Interpretations of Vulnerability 176
4.2.2 Vulnerability and Related Concepts 180
4.2.2.2 Hazard 181
4.2.2.3 Disaster 182
4.2.2.4 Stress (Stressor) 182
4.2.2.5 Threat 182
4.2.2.6 Coping and Coping Capacity 182
4.2.2.7 Resilience 183
4.2.2.8 Security Challenge 183
4.2.3 Vulnerability, Security and Securitization: A Systemic Interpretation 183
4.2.4 Vulnerability and Security of the State: The Classical Approach 187
4.2.5 Social Vulnerability 188
4.2.6 Environmental Vulnerability: Definitions and Measures 190
4.3 Survey of Definitions and Measures of Economic Vulnerability 191
4.3.1 What Is ‘Economic’ in Economic Vulnerability? 191
4.3.2 Economic Vulnerability of the Country or State 193
4.3.2.2 Economic Vulnerability and Resilience of Small States 194
4.3.2.3 Economic Vulnerability of Least Developed Countries (LDC) – Economic Vulnerability Index 196
4.3.2.4 Financial Vulnerability 197
4.3.3 Economic Vulnerability of Non-state Actors 199
4.3.3.1 Market Organizations 199
4.3.3.2 Non-market Institutions 200
4.3.3.3 Economic Vulnerability of Individuals, Households, Livelihoods and Human Security 201
4.4 A New Approach to Economic Vulnerability 203
4.4.1 Conceptual Limitations of Economic Vulnerability and Economic Security 203
4.4.2 Economic Vulnerability, Economic Security and Securitization 204
4.5 Conclusions 206
5 Debt Relief, Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction in Low-Income Countries 208
5.1 Introduction 208
5.2 An Economic and Financial Security Context for the Analysis of Debt Relief 209
5.3 Theoretical Arguments for Debt Relief 210
5.4 Brief History of the Debt Crisis and Debt Relief Initiatives of Low income Countries 213
5.5 Empirical Evidence of the Debt/Growth Relationship 217
5.6 Growth and Poverty Effects of the HIPC Initiative 219
5.7 Impact of the Current Global Crisis on the LICs 222
5.8 Conclusions 224
Part II Securitization of Global Environmental Change 227
6 Security Threats, Challenges, Vulnerabilities and Risks in the Evolution and Implementation of the European Security Strategy 229
6.1 Introduction 229
6.2 The ESS as a Risk- or Challengebased Document¹² 231
6.3 Five Years Later: (i) The Changing Scene 233
6.4 Five Years Later: (ii) The Fate of the ESS 237
6.5 The Future History of the ESS 238
7 NATO’s Traditional Security Problems 241
7.1 Introduction 241
7.2 Security Threats, Risks, and Challenges 241
7.3 What Would Collective Defence Mean for NATO? 244
7.4 Dilemmas of a New Strategic Concept 246
7.5 Conclusions 247
8 European Responses to Security Threats in the Mediterranean in the Early 21st Century 249
8.1 Introduction¹ 249
8.2 The Mediterranean Under Threat 250
8.3 Regional and Internal Conflicts 250
8.4 New or Old Threats? 251
8.5 Catalogue of Cooperation Initiatives 252
8.5.2 European Neighbourhood Policy 253
8.5.3 Besides the EU: 5+5 and NATO’s Mediterranean Dialogue 254
8.6 Concluding Remarks 254
9 Inside/Outside: Turkey’s Security Dilemmas and Priorities in the Early 21st Century 256
9.1 Introduction 256
9.2 Conceptual Framework 257
9.3 Domestic Politics 258
9.3.1 The Rise of Political Islam as a Threat 258
9.3.2 Threat to Territorial Integrity of the State: Ethnic Separatism 259
9.4 Global and Regional Politics 260
9.4.1 Western Connection Questioned 261
9.4.2 Regional Environment 262
9.5 Soft(er) Security Issues Also Matter 264
9.5.1 Global Economic Integration and Energy Dependency 264
9.5.2 Social, Demographic and Environmental Trends 266
9.6 Conclusion 266
10 Promoting Democracy as a Security Goal. The ‘inward-outward’ Paradox of the EU’s Foreign Policy 268
10.1 Introduction¹ 268
10.2 Security and Democracy: An Inward-Outward Paradox 269
10.3 Promoting Democracy as a Security Goal: Enlargement and Neighbourhood Strategies 272
10.4 Public Support, the Eastern Enlargement and its Consequences for European Foreign Policy 275
10.5 Domestic Pressures and EFP: A Framework for Analysis 280
10.6 Conclusion 283
11 Language Games on Security in Finland: Towards Changing Concepts of the State and National Survival 284
11.1 Introduction 284
11.2 The ‘Russian Threat’ in the Language Game of Finnish Security Politics 286
11.3 The Language Game of the Comprehensive Approach to Threat Estimations 291
11.4 The Transformation of the State on the Basis of New National Survival 292
11.5 Discussion 295
12 Security Threats, Challenges, Vulnerabilities and Risks in US National Security Documents (1990–2010) 297
12.1 Introduction 297
12.2 Contrasting Worldviews and Mindsets 298
12.3 National Security Strategy, Quadrennial Defence Reviews and Nuclear Posture Statements 300
12.3.2 Quadrennial Defence Reviews 301
12.3.4 Other US National Security Documents 302
12.4.1 References to US National Security ‘Threats’ 303
12.4.1.1 Threats in the NSS of the Administration of George Bush 303
12.4.1.2 Threats in the NSS of the Clinton Administration 303
12.4.1.3 Threats in the NSS of the Administration of George W. Bush 305
12.4.1.4 Threats in the NSS of the Administration of Barack H. Obama 306
12.4.2 Changing Perceptions of US National Security Challenges 308
12.4.2.2 Challenges in the NSS of the Clinton Administration 308
12.4.2.3 Challenges in the NSS of the Administration of George W. Bush 309
12.4.2.4 Challenges in the NSS of the Administration of Barack H. Obama 309
12.4.3 US National Security Vulnerabilities 310
12.4.3.1 Vulnerabilities in the NSS of the Administration of Barack H. Obama 311
12.4.4 Perceptions of US National Security Risks 311
12.4.4.1 Risks in the NSS of the George Bush Administration 311
12.4.4.3 Risks in the US NSS of the Administration of G.W. Bush 312
12.4.4.4 Risks in the NSS of the Administration of Barack H. Obama 313
12.5 Threats, Challenges, Vulnerabilities and Risks in the US Quadrennial Defense Reviews 313
12.5.2 Security Challenges in the QDRs 315
12.5.3 Security Vulnerabilities in the QDRs 316
12.6 Threats, Challenges, Vulnerabilities and Risks in the US Nuclear Posture Reviews 318
12.7 Threats, Challenges, Vulnerabilities and Risks in the National Military and Defense Strategy Documents 320
12.8 A Concluding Assessment 321
13 Changes in the Perception of Military Threats, Challenges, Vulnerabilities and Risks in Russia (1991-2009) 323
13.1 Introduction 323
13.2 Early Concepts 324
13.2.1 Russia’s Law on Security of 1992 324
13.2.3 Russia’s Foreign Policy Concept of 1993 325
13.2.4 Skokov’s Foreign Policy Concept (1993) 326
13.3 The Russian Military Doctrine of 1993 327
13.4 The National Security Concept of the Russian Federation (1997) 331
13.5 The Putin and Medvedev Era 334
13.6 Conclusions 337
14 Russian Security Policy in the 21st Century Based on the Experiences of Its First Decade 338
14.1 Introduction 338
14.1.1 Where, Why, and How History Matters? 339
14.1.2 Economic and Social Foundations 339
14.2 Russian Security Documents (2003-2010) 341
14.3 Russian Security Policy Practice: From the Protection of Sovereignty to the Protection of Influence 346
14.4 Conclusions 352
15 Non-Traditional Security and the New Concept of Security of China 354
15.1 Introduction 354
15.2 Towards a Comprehensive Security Concept 354
15.3 China’s Evolving New Security Concept 354
15.3.1 Features of China’s New SecurityConcept 355
15.3.2 Implementing China’s New Security Concept 356
15.4 Conclusion 358
16 Perceptions of Hard Security Issues in the Arab World 359
16.1 Introduction 359
16.2 Arab Views on Hard and Soft Security 359
16.3 Levels of Arab Perception of Security Issues 361
16.4 Arab Perceptions of Hard Security Issues 362
16.4.1 The Arab-Israeli Conflict 362
16.4.2 The Invasion and Occupation of Iraq 365
16.4.3 Arabian Gulf Security 367
16.4.4 The Iranian Nuclear Programme 369
16.4.5 Hard Security Issues in the Arab Maghreb Region 371
16.5 Conclusion 371
17 Arab Perceptions of Soft Security Issues 373
17.1 Introduction 373
17.2 Arab Conceptualizations of Soft Security 373
17.3 Arab Perceptions of Soft Security Issues 375
17.3.1 Terrorism 375
17.3.2 Foreign Intervention to Promote Democracy 377
17.3.3 Sectarian Rifts in the Arab World 380
17.3.4 Foreign Labour in the GCC States 381
17.3.5 Environmental Threats 381
17.3.6 Energy Security 382
17.4 Conclusion 384
18 Military Challenges and Threats in West Africa 385
18.1 Introduction 385
18.2 Conceptual Clarifications 386
18.2.3 Military Challenge 387
18.3 Military Challenges in West Africa 387
18.3.1 Intra-state Armed Conflicts 387
18.3.2 Proliferation of Small Arms and Light Weapons 391
18.3.3 Child Soldierism 392
18.3.4 Mercenarism 393
18.3.5 Underlying Vulnerabilities 394
18.4 Military Implications of the Challenges 396
18.5 Sub-regional Responses and the Evolution of ECOWAS 396
18.6 Conclusion 397
19 Weak States and Security Threats in West Africa 398
19.1 Introduction 398
19.2 Clarifying the Concepts of Security and State Weakness 398
19.2.1 West African Discourses on Security and the State 401
19.3 State Weakness in West Africa 403
19.3.1 Background on State Weakness in West Africa 404
19.3.2 The Imperatives of State Survival¹³ 404
19.3.3 Deviation in the African Situation 405
19.4 Security Risks and Vulnerabilities in West Africa 406
19.4.1 End of the Cold War and Insecurity in West Africa 408
19.4.2 Conflicts and Insecurity in West Africa 409
19.4.3 Human Rights Violations in Conflicts in West Africa 412
Part III Economic, Social, Environmental Security and Human Threats, Challenges, Vulnerabilities and Risks in the Near East, North and Sub-Sahara Africa and in Asia 414
20 Environmental Challenges and Risks in North Africa 416
20.1 Introduction 416
20.2 Concepts and Theories 417
20.2.2 Environmental Issues in Islam 420
20.2.3 Research on Environmental Security in the Maghreb 421
20.2.4 A Profile of the Maghreb 422
20.3 Environmental Risks in North Africa 423
20.3.1 Desertification, Land Degradation andDrought (DLDD) 424
20.3.2 Fresh Water Resources 428
20.3.3 Extreme Weather Events and Other Natural Hazards 432
20.4 Conclusion 434
21 Water Degradation as a Human Security Challenge in Jordan 439
21.1 Introduction 439
21.2 Interpreting Water Degradationas a Human Security Challenge 440
21.3 Health Impacts Due to a LowWater Share per Capita 441
21.4 Risk of Microbial Diseases due to Reclaimed Water Reuse 442
21.5 Risk of Groundwater Pollution Due to Human Activities 444
21.6 Impacts of Climate Change 448
21.7 Quest for Drought Tolerance: Risks of Genetically Modified Food 449
21.8 Discussion and Further Actions 450
22 Water Scarcity and Degradation in Palestine as Challenges, Vulnerabilities, and Risks for Environmental Security 452
22.1 Introduction 452
22.2 Background 454
22.2.3 The Palestinian Water System 455
22.2.4 Palestinian Agriculture 455
22.3 Water-related Environmental Threats in the OPT 455
22.3.1.2 Droughts 456
22.3.2 Man-Made Purposeful Causes 456
22.3.2.3 Water Pollution from Israeli Military Activities 457
22.3.2.4 Overexploitation of Water 457
22.3.2.5 Intermittent Water Supply and Unequal Water Allocation 458
22.3.2.6 Economic Growth 458
22.3.2.7 Palestinian Population Growth, Returnees, and Water Demands 459
22.3.2.9 Decline in the Social Value of Water 460
22.3.2.10 Ecosystem Services 460
22.3.2.12 Wastewater Management 461
22.4 Perceptions of Vulnerability and Risk 461
23 Social, Environmental and Security Impacts of Climate Change on the Eastern Mediterranean 463
23.1 Introduction 463
23.1.1 Three Policy Scenarios for US National Security 464
23.1.2 Four Conflict Constellations for International Security 464
23.1.3 Impacts of Climate Change on Human Security 465
23.2 Middle East 465
23.3 Historical Palestine – Occupied Palestinian Territories 466
23.4 Climate Change Impacts on the OPT 468
23.4.3 Sea-Level Rise 469
23.5 Climate Change Impacts due to Man-Made Activities 470
23.5.1 Effects of the Israeli Segregation Wall on Climate Change 470
23.5.2 Sea-Level Rise Impacts on the Gaza Strip 473
23.5.3 Water Scarcity and Transboundary Aquifer Systems 475
23.5.4 Water Scarcity, Climate Change Coping Strategies for the Jordan River Basin (JRB), and Water Conflict 478
23.5.5 Red Sea-Dead Sea Conveyance Project and Climate Change 480
23.5.6 Deforestation, Desertification, and Land Degradation: Causes and Effects on Climate Change 483
23.5.6.1 Deforestation 483
23.5.7 Reducing Climate Change Impacts with Renewable Energy 485
23.6 Conclusions 486
24 Progressive Development of the Water Resources of Israel and Palestine to Mitigate the Negative Impact of Global Warming 488
24.1 Introduction 488
24.1.1 The Progressive Development Model Should Replace Sustainable Development in Regions Where Water Resources Are Drying Up 488
24.2 Impact of Global Warming onWater Resources of the Middle East 489
24.3 The Present State of Water Resources 491
24.3.2 Palestinian Territories 493
24.4 Anticipated Water Demand by the Year 2020 494
24.5 Applying the Policy of ‘Progressive Development’ to Mitigate the Impact of WaterScarcity 495
24.5.1 The Mountain Aquifer 495
24.5.1.1 Management of the Flow of Springs and Streams 496
24.5.1.2 Desalinization of Brackish Fossil Ground Water in the Mountain Region 497
24.5.3 Utilization of a One-time Reserve from Fossil Aquifers 498
24.5.4 Desalinization of Sea Water andGreening of the Desert 499
24.6 Conclusions 499
25 Jerusalem: Where To? In Search for Hidden Opportunities 500
25.1 Introduction 500
25.3 Concept of Sustainable Conflict Resolution 503
25.4.1 Geographical Borders 504
25.4.2 De Jure Borders 505
25.4.3 De Facto Borders 508
25.4.4 Status Quo Borders 509
25.4.5 Administrative Borders 510
25.4.6 Municipal Borders 511
25.5 Models Proposed for the Future of Jerusalem 513
25.5.1 International Model 514
25.5.2 Israeli Model of One National United City 515
25.5.3 Palestinian Model of Two National Units 517
25.6 Proposed Troika Model for Jerusalem 519
25.6.1 Sovereignty 519
25.6.2 Borders 521
25.6.3 Urban Planning and Future Development 521
25.6.4 Management of the Old City 522
25.6.5 Healing, Confidence and Trust Building Measures 522
25.7 Concluding Remarks 522
26 Global Climate Change Impacts for the Mediterranean in the 21st Century: Challenges for Human and Environmental Security 525
26.1 Introduction 525
26.2 Mediterranean Region: Southern Europe, North Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean 526
26.2.2 Southern Europe and EU Mediterranean Countries 529
26.2.4 North Africa 531
26.2.5 Eastern Mediterranean Countries 532
26.3.1 Observed and Projected Temperature Increases 533
26.3.2 Observed and Projected Precipitation Changes 534
26.3.3 Observed and Projected Sea-level Rise 535
26.3.4 Observed and Projected Climate-Related Hazards 536
26.4 Projected Societal Impacts of Climate Change 536
26.4.2 Growing Demand for Food Imports in the MENA 537
26.4.3 Need for a Pan-Mediterranean Assessment on the Physical Effects and Societal Impacts of Climate Change 541
26.4.4 Declining Supply: Soil, Water and Food 542
26.5 Migration Trends and Future Migration Scenarios 543
26.6 Conflicts in the Mediterranean 548
26.6.2 Discussion of Four Conflict Scenarios 549
26.6.2.1 Conflict Constellation 1: Climate-induced Degradation of Water 550
26.6.2.3 Conflict Constellation 3: Climate-induced Increase in Drought and Flood 551
26.6.2.4 Conflict Constellation 4: Climate-induced Increase in Migration 551
26.7 Security Challenges Posed byGlobal Climate Change 552
26.7.2 Assessment of Security Impacts from Different Security Perspectives 553
26.8 Proactive Policies for Coping with Climate Impacts 554
26.8.1 Launching a Mediterranean Environmental and Human Security Initiative (MEH-SEC) in the UfM Framework 555
26.8.2 Assessing Climate Change Impacts in the Mediterranean 556
26.8.3 Environmental and Climate-induced Migration and Developing Alternative Livelihoods for People in Drylands 557
26.8.5 Mediterranean Solar Plan and Desertec Industrial Initiative 558
26.8.5.1 Mediterranean Solar Plan (MSP) 559
26.8.5.2 DESERTEC: From Vision to Reality 561
26.8.6 Developing a EU-MENA Survival Pact 562
26.9 Conclusions 563
27 Global Environmental Change and Conflict Potential in Central Asia 565
27.1 Introduction 565
27.2 General Geographical Conditions 566
27.3 Impact of Global Environmental Change 567
27.3.1 Water 567
27.3.2 Sand and Dust Storms 570
27.3.3 Geo-hazards: Mass Movements 571
27.3.4 Salinization 572
27.4 General Assessment of Conflict Potential due to Global Change 573
27.5 Conclusion 574
28 Impact of Environmental Change on Stability and Conflict Potentials in China 575
28.1 Introduction 575
28.2 Argument, Theoretical Approach and Database 576
28.3 Environmental Degradation and Risks of Socio-political Instability 577
28.4 China’s Environmental Policies 578
28.5 Chinese Administrative Capacity Between Local Leeway and Steering by the Central State 579
28.6 Environmental Awareness and Environmental Protests 583
28.7 Conclusion 585
Part IV Threats, Challenges, Vulnerabilities and Risks for Urban Centres in Hazards and Disasters 587
29 The Vulnerability of Cities to Disasters and Climate Change: A Conceptual Framework 589
29.1 Introduction 589
29.2 Competing Visions of Urban Risk 589
29.3 Urban Poverty and Vulnerability to Disasters and Climate Change 592
29.3.1 Exposure 593
29.3.1.2 Early Warning and Evacuation 594
29.3.1.4 Resilience 595
29.3.1.5 Adaptation 596
29.4 Conclusion 597
30 Vulnerability to Natural Hazards: Case Study on Landslide Risks in La Paz 599
30.1 Introduction 599
30.2 Definitions and Conceptual Precision 600
30.2.2 Definition 602
30.3 The Frameworks 602
30.3.1 Assessing Vulnerability through Analytical Slicing 603
30.3.2 Terry Cannon’s Five Components of Vulnerability 604
30.3.3 Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment Models 605
30.3.4 Livelihood Approaches 606
30.3.4.1 Sustainable Livelihood 606
30.3.4.2 The Access Model 606
30.3.5 Pressure and Release Model 607
30.4 Application to the Case of Landslides in La Paz 607
30.5 Conclusion 613
31 Revealing the Impact of Small Disasters to the Economic and Social Development 615
31.1 Introduction 615
31.2 The DesInventar Disaster Database 616
31.2.1 Preparation of the Database 617
31.3 Small and Moderate Disasters 618
31.3.1 Effects Caused by Small and Moderate Disasters 619
31.3.2 Economic Cost of Small and Moderate Disasters 621
31.4 Conclusions 624
32 Climate Change, Natural Hazards and Coastal Ecosystems in Latin-America: A Framework for Analysis 625
32.1 Introduction 625
32.2 Natural Disasters in Coastal Tropical Latin America 626
32.3 Coastal Ecosystems 628
32.3.1 Mangroves (Distribution, State, Uses and Services) 629
32.3.2 Coral Reefs (Distribution, State, Uses and Services) 631
32.3.3 Impact of Natural Hazards and Climate Change on Coastal Ecosystems 632
32.4 Vulnerability and Climate Change 633
32.5 Framework for Analysis 635
32.6 Preliminary Results 637
32.7 Conclusions 640
33 Flood Loss Redistribution in a Third World Megacity: The Case of Mumbai 642
33.1 Introduction 642
33.2 Loss Redistribution and Hazard Risk 643
33.3 Monsoon Floods and Vulnerability in Mumbai 644
33.4 Flood Loss RedistributionMeasures Practiced by the Slum Population 645
33.5 Findings and Discussion 647
33.6 Conclusion 650
34 Coping with Water- and Wastewater-related Risks in Megacity Delhi 652
34.1 Introduction 652
34.2 Megacity Delhi: Statement of the Problem 653
34.3 Causes for Water and Sewerage Inadequacies in Delhi 654
34.4 Risks Associated with Improper Management of Water and Wastewater 656
34.5 Coping and Adaptation as Components of a Resilient System 658
34.6 Responses to Water and Wastewater Problems 659
34.6.1 Preventive Responses 660
34.6.2 Adaptive Responses 660
34.7 Constraints to Effective Responding. 661
34.8 Conclusion and Discussion 662
35 Politics of Displacement and Vulnerability 663
35.1 Introduction 663
35.3 Politics of Displacement 664
35.4 Land Acquisition Act and its Coercive Aspect 665
35.4.1 Project of Multi Modal Transport System 667
35.4.2 Information and Technology (IT) Park at Cyberabad 668
35.4.4 Adverse Consequence of Displacement Leading to Vulnerability 670
35.4.5 Human Rights Abuse, Human Security Approach and A Gender Perspective 671
35.5 Conclusion 672
36 Linking Oriental and Western Thinking to Mitigate Flood Risk 674
36.1 Introduction 674
36.2 Flood Mitigation 675
36.3 Research Method 678
36.4 Research Results and Analysis 679
36.5 Discussion and Conclusion 681
37 Preparation for an Earthquake in the Megacity Istanbul 683
37.1 Introduction 683
37.2 Factors Affecting Individual Preparedness 684
37.3 Megacities and Vulnerabilities of their Residents in Relation to Natural Disasters 685
37.4 The Case of Istanbul 686
37.4.2 Factors Affecting Individuals in Taking Mitigation and Preparedness Actions in Istanbul 687
37.5 Conclusion 688
38 Risk Management Strategies for the Predicted Earthquake Hazard in Istanbul 690
38.1 Introduction 690
38.2 Research Questions and Methodology 690
38.3 Earthquake Hazard and Risk in the Istanbul Metropolitan Area 691
38.4 Coping with the Hazard: Risk Management after the 1999 Marmara Earthquakes 694
38.5 Study on Risk Management at District Municipalities 698
38.5.1 Kad köy 699
38.5.2 Zeytinburnu 700
38.5.3 Avc lar 701
38.6 Conclusion 702
39 Urban Vulnerability to Climate Change and Natural Hazards in Nigeria 703
39.1 Introduction 703
39.2 Urban Growth and Development in Nigeria 706
39.3 Major Causes of Urban Vulnerability in Nigeria 708
39.4 Urban Vulnerability to Disasters in Nigeria 710
39.5 Institutional Framework for Disaster Management and Funding in Nigeria 715
39.6 Issues and Challenges in Disaster Risk and Urban Management in Nigeria 716
39.7 Conclusion 720
Part V Coping with Global Environmental Change: Climate Change, Soil and Desertification, Water Management, Food and Health 722
40 Quantifying Global Environmental Change Impacts: Methods, Criteria and Definitions for Compiling Data on Hydro-meteorological Disasters 726
40.1 Introduction 726
40.2 EM-DAT: History, Methods and Contents 728
40.2.2 Definitions and Criteria 729
40.2.3 Disasters: How Are They Classified? 730
40.2.5 Challenges of Disaster Data 731
40.3 Patterns and Trends in Natural Disasters 731
40.3.2 Patterns and Trends from 1980 to 2008 732
40.3.2.2 Focus on Climate-related Disasters:1980 to 2008¹³ 733
40.3.2.3 Where Do Natural Disasters Strike? Overview from 1980 to 2008 736
40.3.2.4 Major Natural Disasters from 1980 to 2008 737
40.3.2.5 Standardizing Disaster Impact 738
40.3.3 Natural Disasters in the Short Term: Recent Trends 740
40.3.3.2 How are Disaster Types Distributed Today? 741
40.3.3.3 Which Continents are Hit the Hardest? 742
40.4 Conclusions and Recommendations 744
41 Stormy Weather: International Security in the Shadow of Climate Change 751
41.1 Introduction 751
41.2 Climate Change as a Security Risk 752
41.2.1 Conflict Constellation 1: Climate-induced Fresh Water Scarcity 753
41.2.2 Conflict Constellation 2: Climate-induced Decline in Food Production 754
41.2.3 Conflict Constellation 3: Climate-induced Increase in Storm and Flood Disasters 755
41.2.4 Conflict Constellation 4: Environmentally-induced Migration 756
41.2.5 Regional Distribution of Climate-induced Security Risks 757
41.3 New Quality of Threats and Interlinkages 758
41.3.1 Reciprocal Interlinkages between Conflict Constellations 760
41.3.2 Climate Change as a Catalyst of Insecurity 761
41.3.3 Contextual Global Trends and the Cumulative Destabilization of the International System 762
41.4 Outlook: Reconceptualizing Security for a Hotter World 763
42 Security Risks of Climate Change: Vulnerabilities, Threats, Conflicts and Strategies 766
42.1 The Climate-Security Challenge 766
42.2 Integrated Framework of Interactions Between Climate and Society 767
42.2.2 The Climate-Environment Link 768
42.2.4 Societal Impacts, Instabilities and Adaptive Capacities 768
42.2.5 Sensitivity and the Causal Chain from Climate Change to Societal Impacts 769
42.3 Climate Impact Dimensions 771
42.3.2 Risks and Threats 773
42.3.3 Security Concepts 775
42.3.4 Stability and Instability 776
42.3.4.1 Stability of the Climate System, Ecological and Economic Systems 777
42.3.4.2 Stability Against Escalating Threats 778
42.3.5 Conflict and Cooperation 779
42.4 Strategies for Addressing Climate-Security Challenges 782
42.4.1 Sustainable Development of Welfare and Adaptive Capacity 783
42.4.3 Protecting and Preserving the Natural Resource Base 784
42.4.5 Reducing and Managing Risks, Instabilities and Conflicts 785
42.4.7 Cooperation, Coalition Formation and Global Governance 786
42.5 Conclusions 787
43 New Threats? Risk and Securitization Theory on Climate Change and Water 788
43.1 Introduction 788
43.1.1 Aim 788
43.1.2 Background 789
43.1.3 Theoretical Framework 789
43.1.3.2 Risk Theory 790
43.2 The Israeli-Palestinian Water Negotiation Process 791
43.2.1 Risk in the Negotiations: Perceived and ‘Real’ 791
43.3 Climate Change and Securitization 793
43.4 Discussion and Conclusions 794
44 Dealing With Uncertainties in Climate Change Impacts Assessments: A Case Study on the Nile Basin 796
44.1 Introduction 796
44.2 Uncertainties in Climate Projections 797
44.3 Impact Studies and Uncertainties 797
44.4 Nile Basin: A Case Study 798
44.4.2 Initial Phase: Ensemble Selection and Downscaling 799
44.4.3 Second Stage: Coupling Regional Climate Projections With a Basin-wide Hydrological Model 800
44.5 Conclusions 802
45 Mapping Areas Affected by Sea-Level Rise due to Climate Change in the Nile Delta Until 2100 803
45.1 Introduction 803
45.2 The Nile Delta Region 806
45.2.1 Population 807
45.2.4 Subsidence 808
45.2.7 Resilience 809
45.3.1 Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on the Nile Delta 810
45.3.1.1 Direct Impacts on Low Elevation Land in Cities 811
45.3.1.2 Methodology of the Assessment 811
45.3.1.4 Rosetta City and Region 813
45.3.1.5 Port Said 814
45.3.2 Direct Impacts of Salt Water Intrusion 816
45.3.4 Indirect Impacts 817
45.5 Adaptation Options for Coastal Resources 817
45.5.1 Specific Adaptation Processes and Policies 818
45.6 Conclusions and Recommendations 818
46 Vulnerability of Tropical Montane Rain Forest Ecosystems due to Climate Change 819
46.1 Introduction: Definitions and Key Concepts 819
46.1.2 Structure and Biodiversity of Tropical Montane Rain Forests 820
46.1.3 Distribution of Tropical Montane Rain Forests 822
46.1.4 Climate Change and Specific Vulnerability 824
46.2 Climate Change and Tropical Montane Rain Forest Dynamics 825
46.2.1 Climate-Induced Forest Decline 826
46.2.2 Natural Disturbances 829
46.2.3 Range Retractions, Expansions and Biological Invasions 829
46.2.4 Negative Synergetic Effects of Human Impact 830
46.3 Conclusions 832
47 Securitizing Land Degradation and Desertification: A Proactive Soil Security Concept 833
47.1 Introduction 833
47.2 Conceptualization of Land Degradation, Desertification, and Drought 834
47.3 Evolution of the Scientific Terms of Land Degradation and Desertification, and of the Political DLDD Concept 836
47.3.1 Scientizing by Creating Awareness for Desertification 836
47.3.2 Politicizing Land Degradation, Desertification, and Drought 838
47.3.3 Securitizing Desertification 839
47.4 Securitization of the Land as Territory and as Soil 839
47.4.1 Security Concepts, Approaches, and Securitization Theory 839
47.4.2 Two Sides of Securitizing the Land: Territory vs. Soil 840
47.4.3 Securitizing the Land as Soil: Causes and Societal Effects 841
47.5 Diagnosing Land Degradation, Desertification, and Drought 841
47.5.2 Environmental and Human Pressures (P) 842
47.5.3 Environmental Effect (E): Scarcity, Degradation, and Stress 846
47.5.4 Impact (I) of Climate Change and Stress: Natural Hazards 846
47.5.5 Societal Outcomes (SO): Famine, Crises, and Conflicts 848
47.5.6 Policy Response (R): Three Key Actors and Knowledge 852
47.6 Towards Proactive Policies to Enhance Soil Security 853
47.6.2 Towards a Proactive Security Policy on Land Degradation and Desertification 855
47.7 Conclusions: From Knowledge to Action 856
47.7.2 Proposals by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 856
47.7.4 From a Scientization towards a Securitization of Land Degradation and Desertification 857
47.7.4.2 Politicization of Land Degradation and Desertification 857
47.7.5 Extraordinary Policy Measures for Enhancing Soil Security 858
47.7.5.1 Demand Side Management and Efficiency Improvements 858
47.7.5.2 More Environmental Services and Food with Less Resources 859
47.7.5.3 Transition to Alternative Livelihoods and a Sustainable Economy 860
47.7.5.4 Coping with Environmentally-induced Migration 860
47.7.5.5 Preventing Environmentally-induced Conflicts 861
47.7.5.6 Ten Conceptual Proposals for Coping with Land Degradation and Desertification 862
48 Alternative Livelihoods for Attaining Sustainability and Security in Drylands 864
48.1 Introduction 864
48.2 The Desertification – Security Nexus 865
48.2.2 Scarcity and Degradation – Sociological vs. Ecological Perspectives 866
48.2.3 The ‘Dryland Livelihood Paradigm’ 867
48.2.4 Uncertainties, Loose Terminology, and Controversies 868
48.2.5 The ‘Dryland’s Alternative Stable States’ Hypothesis 869
48.2.6 Multiple Stable States in Ecological Systems and in Drylands 870
48.3 The ‘Alternative Livelihoods’ Track 871
48.3.2 What is a Dryland Alternative Livelihood? 873
48.4 Dryland Afforestation – Land-dependent Alternative Livelihood 873
48.4.1 Firewood Production 873
48.4.3 Carbon Sequestration 875
48.5 Controlled-Environment Protected Agriculture 875
48.5.1 Attributes of Greenhouse Agriculture in Drylands 875
48.5.2 Shortcomings and Advantages of Dryland Greenhouses 876
48.6.2 Avoidance of Potential Drawback of Dryland Aquaculture 877
48.6.4 Where Dryland Aquaculture is already practised? 878
48.7 Urban and Urban-supported Alternative Livelihoods 879
48.7.2 Dryland Tourism 880
48.8 Conclusions and Recommendations 881
49 Societal Vulnerability to Desertification and Policy Response Options 882
49.1 Introduction 882
49.2 The Desertification Challenge 882
49.3 Elements of Societal Vulnerability 885
49.4 Societal Impacts of Desertification 887
49.5 Policy Gaps 888
49.6 Conclusions: What Response Options Exist 889
50 Desertification Process in Egypt 891
50.1 Introduction 891
50.2 Background Information on Egypt 891
50.2.1 Population Pressure 892
50.3 Desertification Processes and its Drivers 896
50.3.2 Salinization 897
50.3.3 Pollution 897
50.3.5 Wind Erosion 898
50.3.6 Water Erosion 898
50.3.7 Sand Encroachment 898
50.3.8 Overgrazing 899
50.3.9 Overpumping 901
50.3.10 Loss of Genetic Plant Resources 901
50.4 The Role of Traditional Knowledge 901
50.5 Policy Suggestions for Coping with Desertification 902
51 Impacts of Drought on Agriculture in Northern Mexico 903
51.1 Introduction 903
51.2 Agriculture in the Arid Zones of Northern Mexico 904
51.2.2 Agricultural Systems in the Arid Zones of Northern Mexico 905
51.2.3 Socio-economic Aspects Associated with Agricultural Practices in Northern Mexico 907
51.3 Global Environmental Change and Agriculture in the Arid Lands of Mexico 909
51.3.1 Drought and Scenarios of Climate Change in Northern Mexico 909
51.3.2 Agriculture and its Vulnerability to Drought in Northern Mexico 911
51.3.3 Agriculture and its Vulnerability to Desertification in Northern Mexico 912
51.3.4 Socio-economic Vulnerability in Northern Mexico 913
51.3.5 Social and Economical Pressures Affecting Dryland Agriculture 913
51.4 Strategies for Adaptation and Mitigation to Climate Change in Dryland Agriculture of Northern Mexico 915
51.4.2 Mitigation Options to Reduce Desertification in Northern Mexico 917
51.4.3 Decision Support Tools 918
51.5 Conclusions 919
52 Traditional Knowledge in Coping with Desertification 920
52.1 Rural, Urban and Cultural Desertification 920
52.2 The Knowledge of the Desert 922
52.3 Validity, Innovative Use, and Integration with Advanced Technology 924
52.3.2 Technological Effectiveness and Productiveness 925
52.3.3 Validity and Application 926
52.3.4 Paleo-technology and High Technology 926
53 Prodromes of Desertification in the Oasis of Tafilalet (Morocco) and Specific Local Solutions 928
53.1 Introduction 928
53.2 The Oases of Tafilalet and Their Many Difficulties 929
53.2.1 Sand Encroachment: A Recent New Danger 930
53.2.2 Difficulties Due to the Water Deficit 934
53.2.3 Social Transformations 938
53.3 Countermeasures of the OasesAgainst Desertification 940
53.3.1 Research on New Water Supplies 940
53.3.2 Efficient Development of Associations in the Oases of Tafilalet 943
53.3.3 Emigration: The Worst Solution 944
53.3.3.1 Emigration in the Oasis of Achbarou 944
53.3.3.2 Emigration and Its Noxious Consequences for Jorf 945
53.3.3.3 Emigration from Alnif 945
53.4 Conclusion 945
54 Agriculture in Drylands: Experience in Almeria 947
54.1 Introduction Justification¹ 947
54.2 Territorial Context 948
54.3 Origin and Development of the Model 949
54.4 Features of the Intensive Agricultural Model 950
54.5 Evolution Process of the Model 951
54.5.2 Technological Transformations 953
54.6 Impact of the Model on the Territorial System 954
54.6.1 Environmental Problems 954
54.6.2 Demographic Impact 955
54.6.3 Socio-economic Development 959
54.7 Concluding Remarks 960
55 Land-use Changes, Desertification, and Climate Change Impacts in South-eastern Spain 961
55.1 Introduction 961
55.1.1 South-eastern Spain Facing Desertification 961
55.1.2 Historical Evolution of the Environmental Crisis 963
55.2 Land-use Changes in the Southeast of Spain 964
55.3 Climate Change Scenarios forMurcia in the 21st Century 967
55.4 Interactions of Climate Change,Desertification, and Land-use Changes 969
55.5 Conclusions and Recommendations 970
56 Reconsidering Integrated Water Resources Management: Promoting Economic Growth and Tackling Environmental Stress 972
56.1 Introduction 972
56.2 Water Resources in Economic Development and Environmental Trade-offs 972
56.2.2 Water and Economic Development 973
56.2.3 Environmental Trade-offs From WaterManagement and Development 974
56.3 Evolution and Critique of IWRM 977
56.4 Ensuring Water Resources Development and Management Outcomes - Minimizing Negative Trade-offs 978
56.5 Conclusions 979
57 Coping with Population Growth, Climate Change, Water Scarcity and Growing Food Demand in China in the 21st Century 981
57.1 Introduction 981
57.2 Population Increase and Grain Demand 981
57.4 Irrigation Area and Distribution 982
57.5 Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources 985
57.6 Measures for Coping with Climate Change 987
57.6.2 Implementing Integrated Water Resource Management 987
57.6.4 Adopting Water-saving Irrigation Practices. 989
57.6.6 Collection of Water Fees 990
57.6.8 Strengthening the Construction of Small-scale Water Conservation Projects and the Use of Poor Quality Water 991
57.6.9 Encouraging International Cooperation 991
58 Ensuring Water Security in Rural Areas of Bangladesh underClimate Change and Non-climatic Drivers of Change 992
58.1 Introduction 992
58.2 Background 993
58.2.1.1 Important Vulnerabilities 994
58.2.2 Human-induced Drivers, Impacts and Vulnerabilities 997
58.2.2.2 Weak Governance 998
58.2.2.3 Crisis of Water Availability or Governance 1000
58.3 Prospect of Social Networks to Form Local Good Governance: Better Water Resources Management 1001
58.3.1 Social Institutions 1001
58.3.2 Social Capital 1002
58.3.3 Social Network 1002
58.3.4 Coping with the 1998 Floods by Social Networking 1002
58.3.5 Theories of Social Capital and Social Networks as Inputs for Good Governance 1003
58.4 Conclusions 1004
59 Applying Bottom-up Participatory Strategies and Traditional Methods of Water Harvesting in the Thar Desert, Rajasthan 1005
59.1 Introduction 1005
59.3 Bottom-up Participatory Approach 1009
59.4 Traditional Wisdom in the Thar Desert 1011
59.5 Coping with a Harsh and Changing Environment 1014
59.6 Conclusion 1018
60 Coping with Water Scarcity in the Sahel: Assessing Groundwater Resources in the Western Sahel 1019
60.1 Introduction¹,² 1019
60.2 Hydrogeological Setting 1022
60.3 The Database and Geographic Information System 1023
60.4 The Geographic Information System (GIS) 1024
60.5.1 The Water Balance of the Iullemeden Aquifer System 1025
60.5.2 Groundwater Support for the Niger River 1025
60.5.3 Overexploitation of the Aquifers 1025
60.6 Conclusion 1026
61 Global Threats, Global Changes and Connected Communities in the Global Agrofood System 1027
61.1 Introduction 1027
61.1.2 Global Challenges Seen from Modernization Theory 1027
61.2 Research Questions and Case Study 1029
61.3 Understanding the 1992 CAP Reforms 1030
61.4 Impact of CAP Reforms on Member States’ Agricultural Policies and Practices 1033
61.4.1 The French Case: Linking Environmental Concerns with Agricultural Practice 1033
61.4.1.1 Agricultural Policy and Practice in France Before 1992 1033
61.4.1.2 Implementing EU Agri-environmental Measures in France 1034
61.4.2 Germany: Challenge of Turning aCritical Debate into Changed Agricultural Practices 1035
61.4.3 Portugal: CAP Reforms in a Country Relatively Untouched by the Earlier CAP Modernization Policies 1036
61.4.3.1 Portuguese Agricultural Policies and Practices before 1992 1036
61.4.3.2 Implementing EU Agri-environmental Measures in Portugal 1037
61.5 Conclusions 1038
62 Genetically Modified Organisms: A Threat for Food Security and Risk for Food Sovereignty and Survival 1041
62.1 Introduction 1041
62.2 Cornucopian Response to Food Security 1042
62.2.1 Genetically Modified Organisms orTransgenic 1042
62.2.1.2 Mutagenesis and Natural Breeding Techniques 1043
62.2.2 Evolution of Transgenics 1044
62.2.3 Biotechnology and Food Security: Threat to Biodiversity? 1046
62.2.4 Transnational Transgenic Enterprises: Threats to the Economy and to Food Sovereignty 1048
62.3 Risk Analysis as a Scientific Response 1052
62.3.2 Risks of GMO Maize for Mexico 1054
62.4 An Ethical Approach Responding to Growing Food Demand 1057
62.4.1 Bioethics: Precautionary Principle and Prevention 1058
62.4.2 Ethics of Sharing vs. Intellectual Property Rights 1060
62.4.3 Risks Mitigation 1060
62.4.3.2 Biosafety 1061
63 Natural Disasters and Major Challenges towards Achieving Food Security in the Sahel: The Experience of CILSS 1064
63.1 Introduction 1064
63.2 Natural Disasters on Earth and in Africa 1064
63.3 Natural Disasters and the ThreatsPosed to Food Security andSustainable Development in the Sahel 1067
63.3.2 CILSS Mandate and Objectives of Sustainable Development 1069
63.4 CILSS Contributions to Combat Natural Disasters 1070
63.4.2 Vulnerability of Sahel Countries to Climate Change Project 1070
63.4.3 Support to Locust Control 1071
63.4.5 African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis Project (AMMA) 1072
63.4.6 Regional Project for the Prevention and Management of Food Crises in the Sahel (PREGEC) 1072
63.4.7 Vulnerability monitoring in the Sahel Project 1072
63.4.7.2 Poverty Reduction through Desertification Control 1073
63.5 Proposals for the International Community 1074
Technical Services 1074
64 Responding to Climate Variability and Change: Opportunities and Challenges for Governance 1075
64.1 A Changing World in a Changing Climate¹ 1075
64.2 The Response to Change: Vulnerability, Resilience and Adaptation 1076
64.3 Why Governance Matters? 1077
64.3.1 Why Does Governance Need to be at Multiple Levels? 1078
64.4 Federalism and Multi-Level Governance in India 1080
64.4.1 From Federal to Multi-level Governance 1080
64.5 Adaptation to Climate Change in India: Opportunities and Challenges for Governance 1082
64.5.2 Adaptation in the Forestry Sector 1083
64.6 Conclusions 1085
65 Coping with Climate Change Impacts on Coffee and Maize for Peasants in Mexico 1086
65.1 Introduction 1086
65.2 Research on Climate Variability and Change in Mexico 1088
65.2.1 Tlaxcala Case Study 1089
65.2.2 Veracruz Case Study 1091
65.3 Methods 1092
65.3.2 Climate Change Scenarios 1093
65.4 Results 1095
65.4.1 Tlaxcala Case Study 1095
65.4.2 Veracruz Case Study 1096
65.4.3 Climate Change and Coping Strategies 1096
65.5 Conclusions 1098
66 The Impact of AIDS on Women’s Social Life in a Mexican Rural Community 1100
66.1 Introduction 1100
66.1.2 Social Representations in the Community 1101
66.2 Method 1102
66.3 Results and Discussion 1102
66.3.2 Second Stage: Focus Group 1103
66.3.3 Third Stage: Reinforcement 1103
66.4 Conclusion 1107
67 Integrated Assessment of Vulnerability to Heat Stress in Urban Areas 1109
67.1 Introduction: Global Environmental Change 1109
67.2.1 Projections Until 2100 1109
67.3 Heat Stress as a Health Risk 1110
67.4 Sustainable Prevention of Adverse Health Outcomes from Heat Stress: The Challenge 1111
67.4.2 Long-term Changes in Urban Planning 1111
67.4.4 Education, Information and Preparation 1111
67.5 Risk Management and Vulnerability Mapping 1112
67.6 Example Budapest 1113
67.7 Conclusion 1117
Part VI Coping with Hazards and Strategies for Coping with Social Vulnerability and Resilience Building 1118
68 Regulation and Coupling of Society and Nature in the Context of Natural Hazards 1119
68.1 Introduction 1119
68.2 Regulation 1120
68.2.2 Regulation of Societal Relationships with Nature 1121
68.2.3 Critique and Limitations 1122
68.3 Approaches Related to Systems Theories 1123
68.3.1 Society Nature Interactions under the Perspective of General Systems Theory and Cybernetics 1123
68.3.2 Syndrome Concept and Archetype Approach 1125
68.3.3 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 1127
68.3.4 Critique and Limitations 1128
68.4 Contested Views of Disasters and Crises 1129
68.5 Coping and Adaptation – Change and Transformation 1131
68.6 Regulation and Coupling of Socio-ecological Systems in Sri Lanka after the Tsunami Disaster 1133
68.6.1 Views and Problem Definitions 1133
68.6.2 Coupling Processes 1134
68.6.3 Key Coupling Processes of Coastal Communities in Sri Lanka 1135
68.6.5 Response Actions: Different Agendas,Demands and Interests 1136
68.6.6 Arenas of Conflict 1138
68.6.8 Type of Assistance 1140
68.7 Conclusions 1140
68.7.1 Conclusions Based on the Empirical Case Study 1140
68.8 Key Questions for Capturing Coupling and Regulation of Socio-ecological Crises in the Context of Natural Hazards 1142
69 Differentials in Impacts and Recovery in the Aftermath of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami: Local Examples at Different Scales in Sri Lanka 1144
69.1 Introduction and Conceptual Framework¹ 1144
69.2 The Empirical Approach and its Limitation 1145
69.3 Empirical Case Study: Impact Sensitivity on the District and Divisional Level 1146
69.3.2 Socio-political Factors of Vulnerability 1149
69.3.3 Economy and Poverty as Vulnerability Factors 1151
69.3.4 Livelihood Factors of Vulnerability 1153
69.4 Empirical Case Study: Differentials in Recovery on the Household Level in the Agricultural Sector 1154
69.4.1 Results of the Agricultural Household Survey in Batticaloa 1155
69.4.2 Consequences of the Tsunami on the Agricultural Activity 1156
69.4.3 Impact on Crops, Land, Irrigation Water and Equipment 1157
69.4.4 Resource Availability After the Tsunami and Assistance 1159
69.5 Conclusions 1160
70 Risks in Central America: Bringing Them Under Control 1162
70.1 Introduction 1162
70.2 Risks and Disasters in Central America 1163
70.3 Vulnerability: The Social Cause of Disasters 1167
70.4 Recent Advances in Central America in Disaster-Risk Management 1169
70.5 Conclusions 1170
71 Economics and Social Vulnerability: Dynamics of Entitlement and Access 1173
71.1 Introduction 1173
71.2 Entitlements, Access, and Substitution 1174
71.3 Do Valuation Methods Capture the Dynamic of Access Failure after Shocks? 1175
71.4 Relevance for Social Vulnerability 1176
71.5 Evacuation, Entitlement Failure, Social Vulnerability 1178
71.5.1 Social Capital and Hurricane Katrina 1179
71.5.2 Social Capital and Declining Trust 1179
71.5.3 Social Capital in Caribbean Countriesfacing Hurricanes 1180
71.6 Summary and Discussion 1180
72 Social Vulnerability, Discrimination, and Resilience-building inDisaster Risk Reduction 1183
72.1 Introduction¹ 1183
72.2 Discrimination, Social Identity, Social Representations, and Social Vulnerability 1184
72.3 Typology of Discrimination 1185
72.3.1 Political and Institutional Discrimination 1185
72.3.2 Gender 1187
72.3.3 Race, Colour, Ethnicity, Religion and Sexuality 1190
72.3.4 Class, Caste, and Other Socio-economic Conditions. 1191
72.3.5 Forced Migration, Migrants, and Refugees 1193
72.3.6 The Elderly, Children, and Adolescents 1195
72.3.7 Physically Handicapped (Disability, Illness, HIV/AIDS) 1197
72.4 Social Vulnerability Due to Identity Factors and Social Representation in Disaster Situations 1198
72.5 Discrimination Affecting Human Lives and Wealth 1199
72.6 Conclusions 1200
Part VII Coping with Global Environmental Change: Scientific, International, Regional and National Political Strategies, Policies and Measures 1203
73 Coping with Global Environmental Change: Need for an Interdisciplinary and Integrated Approach 1206
73.1 Introduction¹ 1206
73.2 Linking Natural Hazards, Climate Change and International Development 1207
73.3 Climate Change – The Increasing Threat in the Future 1209
73.4 Disaster Management and Hazard Mitigation 1210
73.5 International Development 1211
73.6 Responding to the Need for Integrated and Interdisciplinary Research on Hazards 1213
73.7 The Intersection of Issues and Barriers to Change 1214
73.8 Summary 1216
74 Research Agenda and Policy Input of the Earth System Science Partnership for Coping with Global Environmental Change 1218
74.1 The Science of Global Environmental Change¹ 1218
74.2 Supporting Structures for Global Environmental Change Research 1219
74.2.1 The Amsterdam Declaration on Global Change 1221
74.3 Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP) 1225
74.3.1 Joint Projects 1225
74.3.3 Integrated Regional Studies 1226
74.3.5 ESSP Interactions with the International Conventions and Assessments 1227
74.3.5.1 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 1227
74.3.5.2 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 1229
74.3.5.3 The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 1230
74.3.5.5 UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) 1231
74.3.5.6 Meeting the UN’s Millennium Development Goals 1231
74.4 Concluding Remarks 1232
75 The International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change – Taking Stock and Moving Forward 1234
75.1 Introduction¹ 1234
75.2 IHDP’s First Decade: Establishing the Programme 1235
75.2.1 Land-Use and Land-Cover Change (LUCC) 1236
75.2.5 Urbanization and Global Environmental Change (UGEC) 1237
75.2.6 Land Ocean Interactions in the CoastalZone Project (LOICZ) 1237
75.2.8 Results of the Four Initial IHDP Core Projects 1238
75.3 The Second Decade: Innovative Science 1238
75.4 Scientific Agenda of IHDP 1239
75.4.2 Current Synthesis Projects and New Core Research Themes 1240
75.4.3 Cross-cutting Themes 1241
75.4.5 IHDP Cross-cutting Research Areas and Approaches 1242
75.4.5.2 The Missing Links 1245
75.5 Science-Policy Interaction 1246
75.6 Capacity Development 1246
75.7 Conclusions 1246
76 DIVERSITAS: Biodiversity Science Integrating Research and Policy for Human Well-Being 1247
76.1 Introduction 1247
76.2 DIVERSITAS History: Building Biodiversity Science 1249
76.2.1 Phase I: 1991-1998 1249
76.2.2 Phase II: Biodiversity Science Evolves 1249
76.3 Scientific Agenda of DIVERSITAS 1250
76.3.2 Improving Capacity to Observe and Model Biodiversity Change 1251
76.3.3 Exploring the Links between Biodiversity Change, Ecosystem Functioning and Services, and Human Well-being 1254
76.3.4 Investigating the Socio-economic Drivers of Biodiversity Change to Guide the Sustainable Use of Biodiversity 1256
76.3.5 DIVERSITAS Cross-cutting Networks 1258
76.3.6 Strengthening the Science Policy Bridge 1258
76.4 Conclusions 1260
77 The International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme’s (IGBP) Scientific Research Agenda for Coping with Global Environmental Change 1261
77.1 Introduction¹ 1261
77.2 The Research Challenge of Global Environmental Change 1262
77.3 IGBP’s Scientific Strategy 1263
77.3.1 Linking Process Understanding with Decision Support 1264
77.3.3 IGBP Products 1266
77.3.4.1 Marine Ecosystem Dynamics and Fisheries Management 1267
77.4 Future Directions 1268
78 Climate Information for Coping with Environmental Change: Contributions of the World Climate Research Programme 1269
78.1 Introduction¹ 1269
78.2 Climate and Society 1269
78.3 Requirements for UsefulMonitoring and Prediction of the Climate System 1272
78.4 Recognizing the Need –Establishment of the World Climate Research Programme 1273
78.5 Addressing the Challenge: Achievements of the World Climate Research Programme 1274
78.5.3 Snow, Ice, Frozen Ground and Climate 1275
78.5.4 The Global Water Cycle 1276
78.5.5 The Stratosphere and Climate and Ozone 1276
78.5.6 Climate Change Detection, Attribution and Projection 1276
78.5.8 Historical Atmospheric and Oceanic Conditions 1277
78.6 Challenges and Opportunities 1277
78.7 Delivering on the Promise: The Future Strategy of the World Climate Research Programme 1279
78.8 Conclusions and the Science Policy Interface 1283
79 Key IPCC Conclusions on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations 1284
79.1 Introduction 1284
79.1.1 Impacts of Climate Change are Occurring Now 1284
79.2 Key Impacts on the Most Vulnerable Places 1285
79.2.1 Case Study on Europe 1286
79.2.2 Case Study: Africa 1287
79.2.3 Case Study: Asian Megadeltas 1288
79.3 Likely Impacts due to Altered Frequencies and Intensities of Extreme Weather, Climate and Sea-level Events 1289
79.4 Large-scale Climate Events with Potential to Cause Very Large Impacts after the 21st Century 1289
79.6 Necessary Adaptation to Address Impacts from Warming From Past GHG Emissions 1290
79.8 Increased Vulnerability to Climate Change due to Other Stresses 1291
79.9 Future Vulnerability Depending on Climate Change and on Development Pathways 1291
79.11 Avoided, Reduced or Delayed Climate Change Impacts due to Mitigation 1292
80 Options for Mitigating Climate Change Results of Working Group III of the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC 1293
80.1 Introduction 1293
80.2 Coping with Climate Change 1293
80.3 The Mitigation Challenge 1294
80.4 Potential for Mitigating Climate Change and Its Costs 1296
80.5 Policies and Instruments 1300
80.6 Conclusions 1301
81 Global Climate Change, Natural Hazards, and the Environment: an Overview of UNESCO’s Activities 1302
81.1 Introduction¹ 1302
81.2 UNESCO’s Mandate in Relationto Global Climate Change,Natural Hazards, and the Environment 1303
81.3 Climate Research and Oceans 1303
81.4 Water Resources 1305
81.5 Ecological Systems 1306
81.7 UNESCO’s Additional Activities 1307
81.7.2 Education, Communication, and the Social Sciences 1308
81.7.4 World Heritage Preservation 1309
81.8 Conclusions and Outlook 1310
82 Climate Change and Development: UNDP’s Approach to Helping Countries Build a New Paradigm 1311
82.1 Introduction1 1311
82.2 Analytical Framework 1312
82.3 UNDP’s Experience with Global Environmental Change 1313
82.3.1 Climate Change Mitigation: UNDP’s Experience 1315
82.3.2 UNDP’s Role in Enhancing Countries’ Adaptive Capacities 1317
82.4 Scaling Up Climate ChangeAction: Adopting a New Development Paradigm 1318
82.4.1 Six Key Dimensions for Scaling Up Climate Change Action 1318
82.4.2 UNDP’s Strategic Priorities for Climate Change Action: Helping Countries Build the New Paradigm 1318
82.4.2.1 Strategic Priority 1: Strengthening the Capacity of Developing Countries to Design Integrated Climate Change Action and Investment Plans 1319
82.4.2.3 Strategic Priority 3: Enhancing the Capacity of Developing Countries to Attract and Drive Direct Private and Public Investment towards Lower Carbon Technologies and Sustainable Land Use Practices 1323
82.4.2.4 Strategic Priority 4: Integrate Climate Change into UN and UNDP Development Assistance Service Countries in Addressing Climate Change 1325
82.5 Concluding Remarks 1326
83 EU Strategies for Climate Change Policy Beyond 2012 1327
83.1 Introduction 1327
83.2 The Strategic Approach: Target Setting and Addressing Energy Security 1327
83.3 Implementation of the ‘20 20 by 2020’ targets 1329
83.4 EU ETS and Development of International Carbon Markets 1332
83.5 Competitiveness of Industry and Carbon Leakage 1333
83.6 Integrating Climate Change Policy with International Trade Policy 1335
83.7 Towards a Technology Vision 1335
83.8 Climate Change and Developing Countries 1336
83.9 The EU Position in International Negotiations 1337
83.10 Conclusions 1339
84 Coping with Climate Change in East Asia: Vulnerabilities and Responsibilities 1341
84.1 Introduction 1341
84.2 Threats, Vulnerabilities, and Risks in East Asia 1341
84.3 The Challenge of International Justice 1344
84.4 Conclusion 1347
85 Strategies for Coping with Climate Change in Latin America: Perspective beyond 2012 1349
85.1 Introduction 1349
85.2 Intra-regional Differences in Impact and Policies 1350
85.3 Discrepancy between Laws and Implementation 1351
85.4 Areas Where Policies Could Advance the Agenda 1352
85.5 Negative Impacts from Extreme Events 1353
85.6 Some Positive Actions 1356
85.7 Public Goods, Market Mechanisms, and Compensation 1359
86 Politics of Equity and Justice in Climate Change Negotiations in North-South Relations 1362
86.1 Introduction¹ 1362
86.2 Catching a Slippery Fish: The Elusive Concept of the North-South Divide 1363
86.2.1 The North-South Divide Continues –A New Old Paradigm 1364
86.2.2 Identity Politics Leading to Conflict – A Concept of the North-South Divide 1365
86.3 The North-South Divide from the Negotiation Perspective 1369
86.3.1 Coalitions and North-South Relations 1369
86.3.2 Leadership and North-South Relations 1371
86.4 Reaching a Global Deal through Negotiation – Reframing the North-South Divide at the Bargaining Table 1371
86.4.1 Flexibility at the Bargaining Table – Bilateralism vs. Multilateralism 1371
86.4.2 Strategic Facilitation: The Role of Threshold States 1372
86.5 Conclusion: Managing Entanglement – Opportunities through Strategic Facilitation 1373
87 Climate Change: Long-Term Security Implications for China and the International Community 1374
87.1 Introduction¹ 1374
87.2 Security Challenges of Climate Change for the Asia-Pacific Region and China 1375
87.2.1 The Scientific Basis: IPCC Assessments 1375
87.2.2 International Perspectives on the Security Dimensions of Climate Change and their Relevance for China 1376
87.2.3 Chinese Official Political and Academic Assessments of the Long-term Security Implications for China 1376
87.3 Projections of China’s Energy Consumption by 2030 1377
87.3.1 China’s Economic Development and Projections Until 2020 and 2030 1377
87.3.2 Western Projections of China’s Energy Consumption 1378
87.3.3 China’s Long-term Economic and Energy Projections and Planning 1379
87.4 China’s Domestic Climate Change Policy 1380
87.4.1 China’s Climate Diplomacy Practice 1381
87.4.2 Principles of China’s Climate Diplomacy 1383
87.4.3 The Focal Points of China’s Climate Diplomacy 1383
87.4.3.1 Principle of ‘Common but Differential Responsibilities’ 1384
87.4.3.2 Equitable Development and TechnologyTransfers 1384
87.4.3.3 Adaptation and Mitigation for Climate Change 1385
87.4.4 From Climate Diplomacy to Chinese Policy Implementations 1385
87.5 Conclusion: Chinese Initiatives Beyond 2012 1386
88 Japanese Climate Change Policy: Moving Beyond the Kyoto Process 1388
88.1 Introduction 1388
88.2 The Analytical Framework 1389
88.3 How to Achieve the Kyoto Targets 1390
88.4 Domestic Climate Change Policy Discourse: Relative Gain versus Absolute Gain 1392
88.5 Scientific Discourse on Climate Change in Japan 1394
88.6 Japan’s Domestic Politics and Diplomacy Beyond the Kyoto Process 1394
88.7 Conclusion 1398
89 Implications of Equity Considerations and Emission ReductionTargets: Lessons from the Case of Japan’s Mid-Term Target 1399
89.1 Introduction¹ 1399
89.2 Approaches to Allocate GHG Emission Reductions 1399
89.3 Allocating GHG Emissions: The Case of Setting Japan’s Mid-Term Targets 1402
89.4 Discussion 1404
89.5 Conclusion 1405
Part VIII A Technical Tool: Remote Sensing, Vulnerability Mapping and Indicators of Environmental Security Challenges and Risks 1407
90 Land-use and Flood Risk Changes in Coastal Areas of South-eastern Spain 1408
90.1 Introduction 1408
90.2 Spain and Flood Risk in the Region of Murcia 1410
90.3 Study Area 1411
90.3.1 Risks linked to Land-Use Changes 1413
90.3.2 Consequences of Flood Risk for Spatial Planning 1413
90.4 A Simulation of the Study Area 1415
90.5 Conclusions 1417
91 Monitoring Conflict Risk: The Contribution of Globally Used Indicator Systems 1419
91.1 Introduction: Indicators Are No Toys for Statisticians¹ 1419
91.2 An Indicator System for Communicating Conflict Risk 1420
91.2.2 Socio-economic Development 1421
91.2.3 Natural Environment 1421
91.4 Observations on the ‘Strawman’ 1423
91.4.2 Dimensions of Sustainable Development 1425
91.4.4 Right Weights 1426
91.4.5 Correct Data 1428
91.5 Conclusions 1429
Part IX Towards an Improved Early Warning of Conflicts and Hazards 1431
92 Networking Disaster and Conflict Early Warning in Response to Climate Change 1432
92.1 Introduction 1432
92.2 Climate Crises and Isolated Responses 1432
92.3 Pastoral Conflict 1433
92.4 CEWARN and Methodology 1434
92.5 Networking Early Warning for Climate Change 1437
92.6 In Response to Early Warning 1439
92.7 Conclusion 1442
93 Vulnerability Assessment in Sri Lanka in the Context of Tsunami Early Warning 1444
93.1 Introduction 1444
93.2 Linking the Elements: The Risk Model 1447
93.3 Vulnerable Groups 1448
93.4 Linking Vulnerable Groups to Hazardous Areas 1449
93.5 From Risk Assessment to Early Warning 1451
93.6 Other Types of Vulnerabilities in Early Warning 1451
Part X Summary and Conclusions 1453
94 Political Geoecology for the Anthropocene 1454
94.1 Introduction: Hypothesis and Goal of this Chapter¹ 1454
94.2 Multiple Challenges of the Anthropocene from GEC 1455
94.3 ‘Geo’ Approaches to the Spatial Effects of GEC 1459
94.3.1 Spatial Approaches in International Relations 1459
94.3.2 The Hobbesian Obsession of Geostrategy 1461
94.3.3 Revival of Geopolitics in France 1461
94.3.4 Revival of Geopolitics in Italy and in Germany 1462
94.3.5 The Geopolitical Tradition in Latin America 1463
94.3.6 Contemporary Discourses of Critical Geopolitics 1463
94.3.7 Bringing the Environment into the Geopolitical Discourse 1464
94.4 New Spatial Approaches in the Anthropocene: Geoecology and Earth System Analysis or Science 1466
94.4.3 Bringing Security Into the Ecological Discourse on GEC 1470
94.5 From Ecological Geopolitics to Political Geoecology 1472
94.5.2 Introducing the Political Dimension into the Research on Nature-Human Interactions 1475
94.5.3 Towards a New Political Geoecology 1476
94.5.3.1 Actors, Processes, and Levels of Analysis of Political Geoecology 1476
94.5.3.2 Role of Innovative Knowledge and Anticipatory Learning 1478
94.6 Political Geoecology as a New Field of Research and Education 1480
94.6.1 Areas for Research on Political Geoecology 1480
94.6.2 Areas for Political Initiatives on Political Geoecology and Organized Civil Society 1481
94.8 Conclusions 1484
95 Coping with Global Environmental Change – Sustainability Revolution and Sustainable Peace 1487
95.1 Introduction: Focus and Hypothesis 1487
95.2 Four Key Concepts of an Alternative Vision 1488
95.2.1 Culture 1489
95.2.2 Worldview 1490
95.2.3 Mindset 1490
95.3 Dangers Humankind is Facing in the Anthropocene 1491
95.4 Moving from a Business-as-Usual Towards a Global Vision of Sustainable Transformation 1492
95.5 Policy Strategies for Coping with GEC: From the Business-as-Usual Towards the Sustainability Vision 1495
95.5.1 Analysis of the Threats Posed by GEC 1495
95.5.2 Failure of COP 15 and the ‘Copenhagen Accord’ 1498
95.5.3 Obstacles for Coping with GEC and their Security Impacts 1499
95.5.3.1 Mental Obstacles Due to Old Worldviews and Mindsets 1499
95.5.3.2 Short-term Interest-driven Opposition 1500
95.5.3.3 Deficient Governance Processes 1501
95.5.3.4 Towards the Vision of a Global Sustainable Transformation 1501
95.5.4 Analysis of Needed Measures and Means 1502
95.5.5 Proactive Strategies for Coping with GEC and Hazards 1503
95.6 Sustainable Development,Security, and Peace in the Anthropocene 1503
Abbreviations 1504
Bibliography 1520
Biographies of Contributors 1709
Editors 1709
Authors of Forewords and Preface Essays 1714
Authors 1722
Index 1763
Hexagon Series on Human and Environmental Security and Peace (HESP) 1814
| Erscheint lt. Verlag | 3.2.2011 |
|---|---|
| Reihe/Serie | Hexagon Series on Human and Environmental Security and Peace | Hexagon Series on Human and Environmental Security and Peace |
| Zusatzinfo | LI, 1815 p. 389 illus., 288 illus. in color. |
| Verlagsort | Berlin |
| Sprache | englisch |
| Themenwelt | Naturwissenschaften ► Biologie ► Ökologie / Naturschutz |
| Naturwissenschaften ► Chemie | |
| Naturwissenschaften ► Geowissenschaften ► Geografie / Kartografie | |
| Naturwissenschaften ► Geowissenschaften ► Geologie | |
| Sozialwissenschaften ► Politik / Verwaltung | |
| Technik | |
| Wirtschaft | |
| Schlagworte | Desertification • Drought • Early Warning System • ecotoxicology • global change • global warming |
| ISBN-10 | 3-642-17776-X / 364217776X |
| ISBN-13 | 978-3-642-17776-7 / 9783642177767 |
| Informationen gemäß Produktsicherheitsverordnung (GPSR) | |
| Haben Sie eine Frage zum Produkt? |
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