Modelling Transport (eBook)

Juan de Dios Ortúzar, Luis G. Willumsen (Autoren)

eBook Download: EPUB

2024 | 5. Auflage
720 Seiten
Wiley (Verlag)
978-1-119-28281-5 (ISBN)

Infos

MODELLING TRANSPORT

Comprehensive Textbook Resource for Understanding Transport Modelling

Modelling Transport provides unrivalled depth and breadth of coverage on the topic of transport modelling. Each topic is approached as a modelling exercise with discussion of the roles of theory, data, model specification, estimation, validation, and application. The authors present the state of the art and its practical application in a pedagogic manner, easily understandable to both students and practitioners. An accompanying website hosts a solutions manual.

Sample topics and learning resources included in the work are as follows:

• State-of-the-art developments in the field of transport modelling, including new research and examples
• Factors to consider for better modelling and forecasting
• Information and analysis on dynamic assignment and micro-simulation and model design and specification
• Agent and Activity Based Modelling
• Modelling new modes and services

Graduate students in transportation engineering and planning, transport economics, urban studies, and geography programs along with researchers and practitioners in the transportation and urban planning industry can use Modelling Transport as a comprehensive reference work for a wide array of topics pertaining to this field.

Dr. Juan de Dios Ortúzar is Emeritus Professor in the School of Engineering at Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile and also Key Researcher at Instituto Sistemas Complejos de Ingeniería (ISCI) and the BRT+ Centre of Excellence. He has over 30 years of experience in discrete choice modelling and survey design with particular focus on transport demand modelling and the valuation of transport externalities.

Dr. Luis G. Willumsen is an internationally recognised authority in transport and traffic modelling and has over 30 years of experience in this area. He previously lectured at Leeds University and University College London, and was also a Director of Steer before leaving in 2009 to set up his own independent practice. He is also Managing Partner of Nommon Solutions and Technologies, a company processing big data to provide location and mobility intelligence.

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Preface

This book results from over 50 years of collaboration, often at a distance and sometimes working together in Britain and Chile. During this half‐century, we have often discussed the more substantial and weaker aspects of transport modelling and planning. We have also speculated, researched, and tested some new and not‐so‐new ideas in practice. We have agreed and disagreed on topics such as the level of detail required for modelling or the value of disaggregate and activity‐based models in forecasting; some 33 years ago, we took advantage of a period when our views converged to put them in writing, but they have evolved and continue to do so.

At that time, we decided to present the most important (in our view) transport modelling techniques in a form accessible to students and practitioners alike. We attempted this giving particular emphasis to key topics in contemporary modelling and planning:

• the practical importance of theoretical consistency in transport modelling;
• the issues of data and specification errors in modelling, their relative importance and methods to handle them;
• the key role played by the decision‐making context in the choice of the most appropriate modelling tool;
• how uncertainty and risk influence the choice of the most appropriate modelling tool;
• the advantages of variable resolution modelling; a simplified background model coupled with a much more detailed one addressing the decision questions in hand;
• the need for a monitoring function relying on regular data collection and updating of forecasts and models so that courses of action can be adapted to a changing environment.

However, since we wrote that first edition, a lot has changed. The clear distinction between private and schedule‐based public transport has been disrupted by new forms of mobility: vehicle sharing, electric bikes, and, sometime in the future, autonomous vehicles. Also, transport planning objectives have evolved: today, the reduction of emissions and the provision of equitable access to all sections of the community are at the top of the agenda; they were secondary, if at all, in the twentieth century. More complex problems call for better tools to deal with them and develop a broader understanding and more considered judgment. Luckily, the profession has responded to this challenge, and this fifth edition of Modelling Transport attempts to bring these better tools and understanding to our audience.

In writing this book, we aimed to create both a text for a diploma or Master's course in transport and a reference volume for practitioners. However, we present the material in such a way as to be useful for undergraduate courses in civil engineering, geography, and town planning. We approached the subject from the point of view of a modelling exercise, discussing the role of theory, data, model specification in its broadest sense, model estimation, validation, and forecasting. Initially, we based the book on our lecture notes, prepared and improved over several years of teaching at undergraduate and graduate levels; we have also used them to teach practitioners through in‐house training programmes and short skills‐updating courses. We have extended and enhanced our lecture notes to cover additional material and to help the reader tackle the book without the support of a supervisor.

Chapters 2–9, 13, and 18 provide all the elements necessary to run a good 30 sessions course on transport demand modelling; in fact, such a course – with different emphases on certain subjects – has been taught by us at undergraduate level in Chile and at postgraduate level in Australia, Britain, China, Colombia, Germany, Italy, Mexico, Portugal, and Spain; the addition of material from Chapters 10–12 would make it a transport modelling course. Chapters 4–6, 10–12, and 14 provide the basic core for a course on network modelling and equilibrium in transport; a course on transport supply modelling would require more material, particularly relating to certain aspects of public transport supply which we do not discuss in enough detail. Chapters 15–17, 19, and 20 cover material which is getting more important as time goes by, in particular as the shift in interest in the profession is moving from passenger issues to freight and logistics and to the role that models play not only in social evaluation but also in the analysis of private projects. Chapter 1 provides an introduction to transport planning issues and outlines our view on the relationship between planning and modelling.

During our professional life, we have been fortunate to combine teaching with research and consultancy practice. We have learnt from the literature, our research and experimentation, and our mistakes. The latter has not been too expensive in terms of inaccurate advice. However, this is not just luck; a conscientious analyst pays for mistakes by working harder and longer to sort out alternative ways of dealing with a problematic modelling task. We have also learnt the importance of choosing appropriate techniques and technologies for each task; the ability to tailor modelling approaches to decision problems is an essential skill in our profession. Throughout the book, we examine the practical constraints to transport modelling for planning and policy-making in general, particularly given the limitations of current formal analytical techniques and the nature and quality of the data likely to be available.

We have avoided the intricate mathematical detail of every model to concentrate instead on their basic principles, identifying their strengths and limitations, and discussing their use. The level of theory supplied by this book is sufficient to select and use the models in practice. We have tried to bridge the gap between the more theoretical publications and a simplistic ‘how to' book offering a blueprint to each modelling problem. In this latest edition, we have also marked, with a shaded box, material which is more advanced or still under development but essential enough to be mentioned. There are no single solutions to transport modelling and planning issues. A recurring theme in the book is the dependence of modelling on context and theory. We aim to provide enough information and guidance so that readers can go and use each technique in the field; to this end, we have striven to look into practical questions about the application of each methodology. Wherever the subject area is still under development, we have striven to extensively reference more theoretical papers and books, which the interested reader can consult as necessary. Concerning other, more settled modelling approaches, we have kept the references to those essential for understanding the evolution of the topic or serving as entry points to further research.

Nobody can aspire to become a qualified practitioner in any area without working in a laboratory or field. Therefore, we have gone beyond the sole description of the techniques and have accompanied them with various application examples. These illustrate some of the theoretical or practical issues related to particular models. We provide a few exercises at the end of key chapters; these can be solved with the help of a scientific pocket (or better still, a spreadsheet) calculator and should assist in the understanding of the models discussed.

Although the book is ambitious in covering many themes, it must be made clear from the outset that we do not intend (nor believe it possible) to be up-to-the-minute on every topic. The book is a good reflection of the state-of-the-art, but for leading-edge research, the reader should use the references provided as signposts for further investigation.

We wrote most of the first edition during a sabbatical visit by the first of us to University College London in 1988–89. This was possible owing to the support provided by the UK Science and Engineering Research Council, The Royal Society, Fundación Andes (Chile), The British Council, and The Chartered Institute of Transport. We thank them for their support as we acknowledge the funding provided for our research by many institutions and agencies over the past 50 years. The third and fourth editions benefited greatly from further sabbatical stays at University College London in 1998–99 and 2009; these were possible owing to the support provided by the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council. We also wish to acknowledge the support for our research provided by several FONDECYT projects in Chile, by Instituto Sistemas Complejos de Ingeniería (ISCI), through grant ANID PIA/PUENTE AFB230002; the Centre for Sustainable Urban Development (CEDEUS), through grant CEDEUS/FONDAP/15110020; and the BRT+ Centre of Excellence funded by the Volvo Research and Educational Foundations.

We have managed to maintain a fairly even intellectual contribution to the contents of this book, but in writing and researching material for it, we have also benefited from numerous discussions with friends and colleagues. Richard Allsop taught us a good deal about methodology and rigour. Huw Williams’s ideas are behind many of the theoretical contributions in Chapter 7; Andrew Daly and Hugh Gunn helped to clarify many issues in Chapters 3, 7–9, and 18. Dirck Van Vliet’s emphasis in explaining assignment and equilibrium in simple but rigorous terms inspired Chapters 10–12. Tony Fowkes...

Produkt-Details

• Erscheint lt. Verlag: 15.2.2024
• Sprache: englisch
• Themenwelt: Technik ► Bauwesen
• Schlagworte: agent-based modelling • Angewandte Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung u. Statistik • Applied Probability & Statistics • Bauingenieur- u. Bauwesen • Civil Engineering & Construction • Discrete Choice Modelling • dynamic assignment • Mathematical Modeling • Mathematics • Mathematik • Mathematische Modellierung • Micro-Simulation • Model design • model specification. Mobility as a Service • Statistics • Statistik • Survey Design • the future of transport modelling • Transportation • Transportation Engineering • transportation forecasting • Transportation planning • transportation professionals • transportation researchers • Transport Modelling • transport modelling developments • transport modelling textbook • Verkehrsbau
• ISBN-10: 1-119-28281-0 / 1119282810
• ISBN-13: 978-1-119-28281-5 / 9781119282815