Decision Making in Systems Engineering and Management
John Wiley & Sons Inc (Verlag)
978-0-470-90042-0 (ISBN)
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Decision Making in Systems Engineering and Management is a comprehensive textbook that provides a logical process and analytical techniques for fact-based decision making for the most challenging systems problems. Grounded in systems thinking and based on sound systems engineering principles, the systems decisions process (SDP) leverages multiple objective decision analysis, multiple attribute value theory, and value-focused thinking to define the problem, measure stakeholder value, design creative solutions, explore the decision trade off space in the presence of uncertainty, and structure successful solution implementation. In addition to classical systems engineering problems, this approach has been successfully applied to a wide range of challenges including personnel recruiting, retention, and management; strategic policy analysis; facilities design and management; resource allocation; information assurance; security systems design; and other settings whose structure can be conceptualized as a system.
GREGORY S. PARNELL, PhD, has been Professor of Systems Engineering in the Department of Systems Engineering at the United States Military Academy at West Point since 1999. He has also taught at Virginia Commonwealth University and the Air Force Institute of Technology. Dr. Parnell is a Fellow of the International Committee for Systems Engineering. PATRICK J. DRISCOLL, PhD, has been Professor of Operations Research in the Department of Systems Engineering at the United States Military Academy since 2001. From 2004 to 2007 he held the USMA Transformation Chair, and was program director for systems engineering from 2004 to 2005. DALE L. HENDERSON, PhD, was an assistant professor in the Department of Systems Engineering at the United States Military Academy from 2005 to 2009. He is currently a Senior Military Analyst for the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command Analysis Center in Virginia.
Foreword to the Second Edition xvii
Foreword to the First Edition xix
Preface to the Second Edition xxi
Acknowledgments xxv
Thoughts for Instructors xxvii
Contributors xxxiii
Acronyms xli
1 Introduction 1
Gregory S. Parnell and Patrick J. Driscoll
1.1 Purpose 1
1.2 System 3
1.3 Stakeholders 3
1.4 System Life Cycle 7
1.5 Systems Thinking 10
1.6 Systems Engineering Thought Process 12
1.7 Systems Engineering 13
1.8 Engineering Management 15
1.9 Systems Decision Process 16
1.10 Overview 21
1.11 Exercises 21
References 23
Part I Systems Thinking 25
2 Systems Thinking 27
Patrick J. Driscoll
2.1 Introduction 27
2.2 Structure 32
2.3 Classification 33
2.4 Boundaries 35
2.5 Visibility 39
2.6 IDEF0 Models 40
2.7 Mathematical Structure 50
2.8 Spatial Arrangement 54
2.9 Evolution 58
2.10 Summary 58
2.11 Exercises 59
References 63
3 System Life Cycle 65
Patrick J. Driscoll and Paul Kucik
3.1 Introduction 65
3.2 System Life Cycle Model 68
3.2.1 Establish System Need 70
3.2.2 Develop System Concept 70
3.2.3 Design and Develop System 70
3.2.4 Produce System 71
3.2.5 Deploy System 72
3.2.6 Operate System 72
3.2.7 Retire System 73
3.3 Other Major System Life Cycle Models 74
3.4 Risk Management in the System Life Cycle 77
3.4.1 Risk Identification 78
3.4.2 Risk Assessment 83
3.4.3 Risk Mitigation 88
3.5 Summary 89
3.6 Exercises 90
References 92
4 Systems Modeling and Analysis 95
Paul D. West, John E. Kobza, and Simon R. Goerger
4.1 Introduction 95
4.2 Developing System Measures 96
4.3 Modeling the System Design 98
4.3.1 What Models Are 99
4.3.2 Why We Use Models 99
4.3.3 Role of Models in Solution Design 101
4.3.4 Qualities of Useful Models 102
4.4 The Modeling Process: How We Build Models 104
4.4.1 Create a Conceptual Model 105
4.4.2 Construct the Model 106
4.4.3 Exercise the Model 107
4.4.4 Revise the Model 108
4.5 The Model Toolbox: Types of Models, Their Characteristics, and Their Uses 109
4.5.1 Characteristics of Models 112
4.5.2 The Model Toolbox 114
4.6 Simulation Modeling 121
4.6.1 Analytical Solutions Versus Simulation; When It Is Appropriate to Use Simulation 122
4.6.2 Simulation Tools 123
4.7 Determining Required Sample Size 129
4.8 Summary 131
4.9 Exercises 132
References 134
5 Life Cycle Costing 137
Edward Pohl and Heather Nachtmann
5.1 Introduction to Life Cycle Costing 137
5.2 Introduction to Cost Estimating Techniques 139
5.2.1 Types of Costs 143
5.3 Cost Estimation Techniques 145
5.3.1 Estimating by Analogy Using Expert Judgment 145
5.3.2 Parametric Estimation Using Cost Estimating Relationships 146
5.3.3 Learning Curves 160
5.4 System Cost for Systems Decision Making 167
5.4.1 Time Value of Money 168
5.4.2 Inflation 168
5.4.3 Net Present Value 171
5.4.4 Breakeven Analysis and Replacement Analysis 172
5.5 Risk and Uncertainty in Cost Estimation 172
5.5.1 Monte Carlo Simulation Analysis 173
5.5.2 Sensitivity Analysis 177
5.6 Summary 178
5.7 Exercises 178
References 181
Part II Systems Engineering 183
6 Introduction to Systems Engineering 185
Gregory S. Parnell
6.1 Introduction 185
6.2 Definition of System and Systems Thinking 185
6.3 Brief History of Systems Engineering 186
6.4 Systems Trends that Challenge Systems Engineers 186
6.5 Three Fundamental Tasks of Systems Engineers 189
6.6 Relationship of Systems Engineers to Other Engineering Disciplines 192
6.7 Education, Training, and Knowledge of Systems Engineers 192
6.7.1 Next Two Chapters 193
6.8 Exercises 193
Acknowledgment 194
References 194
7 Systems Engineering in Professional Practice 197
Roger C. Burk
7.1 The Systems Engineer in the Engineering Organization 197
The Systems Engineering Job 199
Three Systems Engineering Perspectives 199
Organizational Placement of Systems Engineers 199
7.2 Systems Engineering Activities 200
Establish System Need 201
Develop System Concept 202
Design and Develop the System 202
Produce System 202
Deploy System 203
Operate System 203
Retire System 203
7.3 Working with the Systems Development Team 203
The SE and the Program Manager 203
The SE and the Client, the User, and the Consumer 203
The SE and the CTO or CIO 205
The SE and the Operations Researcher or System Analyst 205
The SE and the Configuration Manager 206
The SE and the Life Cycle Cost Estimator 206
The SE and the Engineering Manager 206
The SE and the Discipline Engineer 207
The SE and the Test Engineer 207
The SE and the Specialty Engineer 207
The SE and the Industrial Engineer 208
The SE and Quality Assurance 208
7.4 Building an Interdisciplinary Team 208
Team Fundamentals 208
Team Attitude 209
Team Selection 210
Team Life Cycle 210
Cross-Cultural Teams 211
7.5 Systems Engineering Responsibilities 212
Systems Engineering Management Plan (SEMP) 212
Technical Interface with Users and Consumers 213
Analysis and Management of Systems Requirements 213
System Architecting 216
Systems Engineering Tools and Formal Models 217
Interface Control Documents (ICDs) 218
Test and Evaluation Master Plan (TEMP) 218
Configuration Management (CM) 218
Specialty Engineering 218
Major Program Technical Reviews 220
System Integration and Test 221
7.6 Roles of the Systems Engineer 221
7.7 Characteristics of the Ideal Systems Engineer 222
7.8 Summary 223
7.9 Exercises 224
Acknowledgment 225
References 225
8 System Reliability 227
Edward Pohl
8.1 Introduction to System Effectiveness 227
8.2 Reliability Modeling 228
8.3 Mathematical Models in Reliability 229
8.3.1 Common Continuous Reliability Distributions 233
8.3.2 Common Discrete Distributions 242
8.4 Basic System Models 244
8.4.1 Series System 245
8.4.2 Parallel System 245
8.4.3 K-out-of-N Systems 247
8.4.4 Complex Systems 247
8.5 Component Reliability Importance Measures 249
8.5.1 Importance Measure for Series System 249
8.5.2 Importance Measure for Parallel System 250
8.6 Reliability Allocation and Improvement 250
8.7 Markov Models of Repairable Systems 253
8.7.1 Kolmogorov Differential Equations 253
8.7.2 Transient Analysis 254
8.7.3 Steady-State Analysis 256
8.7.4 CTMC Models of Repairable Systems 256
8.7.5 Modeling Multiple Machine Problems 258
8.7.6 Conclusions 263
8.8 Exercises 263
References 271
Part III Systems Decision Making 273
9 Systems Decision Process Overview 275
Gregory S. Parnell and Paul D. West
9.1 Introduction 275
9.2 Value-Focused Versus Alternative-Focused Thinking 276
9.3 Decision Quality 278
9.4 Systems Decision Process 280
9.5 Role of Stakeholders 282
9.6 Role of Decision Makers 283
9.7 Environment 284
9.8 Comparison with Other Processes 285
9.9 When to Use the Systems Decision Process 286
9.9.1 Need 289
9.9.2 Resources 289
9.9.3 Decision Maker and Stakeholder Support 289
9.10 Tailoring the Systems Decision Process 289
9.11 Example Use of the Systems Decision Process 290
9.12 Illustrative Example: Systems Engineering Curriculum Management System (CMS)—Summary and Introduction 290
9.13 Exercises 293
Acknowledgment 294
References 294
10 Problem Definition 297
Timothy Trainor and Gregory S. Parnell
10.1 Introduction 297
10.1.1 The Problem Definition Phase 298
10.1.2 Comparison with Other Systems Engineering Processes 299
10.1.3 Purpose of the Problem Definition Phase 300
10.1.4 Chapter Example 300
10.2 Research and Stakeholder Analysis 300
10.2.1 Techniques for Stakeholder Analysis 302
10.2.2 Stakeholder Analysis for the Rocket System Decision Problem 313
10.2.3 At Completion 314
10.3 Functional and Requirements Analyses 314
10.3.1 Terminology 315
10.3.2 Importance of Functional Analysis 315
10.3.3 Functional Analysis Techniques 316
10.3.4 Requirements Analysis 324
10.3.5 At Completion 325
10.4 Value Modeling 326
10.4.1 Definitions Used In Value Modeling 326
10.4.2 Qualitative Value Modeling 327
10.4.3 Quantitative Value Model 331
10.4.4 At Completion of Value Modeling 340
10.5 Output of the Problem Definition Phase 340
10.5.1 Discussion 340
10.5.2 Conclusion 341
10.6 Illustrative Example: Systems Engineering Curriculum Management System (CMS)—Problem Definition 341
10.7 Exercises 350
References 350
11 Solution Design 353
Paul D. West
11.1 Introduction to Solution Design 353
11.2 Survey of Idea Generation Techniques 355
11.2.1 Brainstorming 355
11.2.2 Brainwriting 358
11.2.3 Affinity Diagramming 358
11.2.4 Delphi 358
11.2.5 Groupware 361
11.2.6 Lateral and Parallel Thinking and Six Thinking Hats 361
11.2.7 Morphology 361
11.2.8 Ends–Means Chains 363
11.2.9 Existing or New Options 363
11.2.10 Other Ideation Techniques 363
11.3 Turning Ideas into Alternatives 365
11.3.1 Alternative Generation Approaches 365
11.3.2 Feasibility Screening 366
11.4 Analyzing Candidate Solution Costs 368
11.5 Improving Candidate Solutions 369
11.5.1 Modeling Alternatives 369
11.5.2 Simulating Alternatives 369
11.5.3 Design of Experiments 370
11.5.4 Fractional Factorial Design 376
11.5.5 Pareto Analysis 386
11.6 Summary 388
11.7 Illustrative Example: Systems Engineering Curriculum Management System (CMS)—Solution Design 388
11.8 Exercises 390
References 391
12 Decision Making 395
Michael J. Kwinn, Jr., Gregory S. Parnell, and Robert A. Dees
12.1 Introduction 395
12.2 Preparing to Score Candidate Solutions 396
12.2.1 Revised Problem Statement 396
12.2.2 Value Model 397
12.2.3 Candidate Solutions 397
12.2.4 Life Cycle Cost Model 397
12.2.5 Modeling and Simulation Results 397
12.2.6 Confirm Value Measure Ranges and Weights 397
12.3 Five Scoring Methods 398
12.3.1 Operations 398
12.3.2 Testing 398
12.3.3 Modeling 399
12.3.4 Simulation 399
12.3.5 Expert Opinion 399
12.3.6 Revisit Value Measures and Weights 400
12.4 Score Candidate Solutions or Candidate Components 400
12.4.1 Software for Decision Analysis 401
12.4.2 Candidate Solution Scoring and Value Calculation 402
12.4.3 Candidate Components Scoring and System Optimization 404
12.5 Conduct Sensitivity Analysis 409
12.5.1 Analyzing Sensitivity on Weights 410
12.5.2 Sensitivity Analysis on Weights Using Excel 411
12.6 Analyses of Uncertainty and Risk 412
12.6.1 Risk Analysis—Conduct Monte Carlo Simulation on Measure Scores 413
12.7 Use Value-Focused Thinking to Improve Solutions 417
12.7.1 Decision Analysis of Dependent Risks 419
12.8 Conduct Cost Analysis 423
12.9 Conduct Cost/Benefit Analysis 423
12.10 Decision-Focused Transformation (DFT) 424
12.10.1 Transformation Equations 425
12.10.2 Visual Demonstration of Decision-Focused Transformation 427
12.10.3 Cost/Benefit Analysis and Removal of Candidate Solutions 427
12.11 Prepare Recommendation Report and Presentation 432
12.11.1 Develop Report 433
12.11.2 Develop Presentation 434
12.12 Prepare for Solution Implementation 439
12.13 Illustrative Example: Systems Engineering Curriculum Management System (CMS)—Decision Making 439
12.13 Exercises 443
References 446
13 Solution Implementation 447
Kenneth W. McDonald and Daniel J. McCarthy
13.1 Introduction 447
13.2 Solution Implementation Phase 449
13.3 The Initiating Process 452
13.4 Planning 453
13.5 Executing 457
13.6 Monitoring and Controlling 458
13.7 Closing 461
13.8 Implementation During Life Cycle Stages 462
13.8.1 Implementation in “Produce the System” 462
13.8.2 Implementation in “Deploy the System” 464
13.8.3 Implementation in “Operate the System” 466
13.9 Exercises 474
References 475
14 Summary 477
Gregory S. Parnell
14.1 Systems Thinking—Key to Systems Decision Making 478
14.1.1 Systems Thinking Reveals Dynamic Behavior 478
14.1.2 The System Life Cycle Must Be Considered 478
14.1.3 Modeling and Simulation—Important Tools 479
14.1.4 The System Life Cycle Is a Key Risk Management Tool 479
14.1.5 Life Cycle Costing Is an Important Tool for Systems Engineering 479
14.2 Systems Engineers Play a Critical Role in the System Life Cycle 480
14.2.1 Systems Engineers Lead Interdisciplinary Teams to Obtain System Solutions that Create Value for Decision Makers and Stakeholders 480
14.2.2 Systems Engineers Convert Stakeholder Needs to System Functions and Requirements 480
14.2.3 Systems Engineers Define Value and Manage System Effectiveness 480
14.2.4 Systems Engineers Have Key Roles Throughout the System Life Cycle 481
14.3 A Systems Decision Process Is Required for Complex Systems Decisions 481
14.3.1 Problem Definition Is the Key to Systems Decisions 481
14.3.2 If We Want Better Decisions, We Need Better System Solution Designs 482
14.3.3 We Need to Identify the Best Value for the Resources 482
14.3.4 Solution Implementation Requires Planning, Executing, and Monitoring and Controlling 482
14.4 Systems Engineering Will Become More Challenging 483
Appendix A SDP Trade Space Concepts 485
Index 491
| Erscheint lt. Verlag | 19.11.2010 |
|---|---|
| Reihe/Serie | Wiley Series in Systems Engineering and Management ; 1 |
| Verlagsort | New York |
| Sprache | englisch |
| Maße | 163 x 234 mm |
| Gewicht | 885 g |
| Themenwelt | Technik ► Elektrotechnik / Energietechnik |
| ISBN-10 | 0-470-90042-3 / 0470900423 |
| ISBN-13 | 978-0-470-90042-0 / 9780470900420 |
| Zustand | Neuware |
| Informationen gemäß Produktsicherheitsverordnung (GPSR) | |
| Haben Sie eine Frage zum Produkt? |
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