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Modeling Shifting Mortality, and Its Applications - Futoshi Ishii

Modeling Shifting Mortality, and Its Applications (eBook)

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2023 | 1st ed. 2023
79 Seiten
Springer Nature Singapore (Verlag)
978-981-99-2509-4 (ISBN)
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This book describes a novel method for mortality modeling applying the shifting feature of the mortality curve. In Japan, the increase and pace of the extension in life expectancy have been quite remarkable. Therefore, existing mortality models often cannot capture the peculiarities of Japanese mortality, nor can the Lee-Carter model, which is now regarded internationally as a standard model. One of the important concepts to model recent Japanese mortality is a shifting feature. In this book, the linear difference model, which has many advantages for modeling and analyzing Japanese mortality, is introduced. The book shows applications of the model to mortality projection with a tangent vector field approach and decomposition of the change of modal age at death. The models introduced here are useful tools for modeling mortality with strong shifting features, as in Japan.

Dr. Futoshi Ishii is a professor of Keio University, Tokyo, Japan. He received his Ph.D. in demography from University of California, Berkeley, in 2014. He is a formal demographer who has contributed to the official population projections for Japan when he worked at the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS). He is a founding director of the Japanese Mortality Database at IPSS, which is a database of Japanese life tables frequently used in mortality studies for Japan.

His major research fields are population projection, mortality analysis, and mathematical demography. He has published many books and papers in these fields that include co-edited book 'Choju Kenko no Jinkogaku (Demography of Longevity and Health)'(Hara Shobo 2021).


This book describes a novel method for mortality modeling applying the shifting feature of the mortality curve. In Japan, the increase and pace of the extension in life expectancy have been quite remarkable. Therefore, existing mortality models often cannot capture the peculiarities of Japanese mortality, nor can the Lee-Carter model, which is now regarded internationally as a standard model. One of the important concepts to model recent Japanese mortality is a shifting feature. In this book, the linear difference model, which has many advantages for modeling and analyzing Japanese mortality, is introduced. The book shows applications of the model to mortality projection with a tangent vector field approach and decomposition of the change of modal age at death. The models introduced here are useful tools for modeling mortality with strong shifting features, as in Japan.
Erscheint lt. Verlag 31.7.2023
Reihe/Serie Population Studies of Japan
Population Studies of Japan
Population Studies of Japan
SpringerBriefs in Population Studies
SpringerBriefs in Population Studies
Zusatzinfo XIII, 79 p. 47 illus., 18 illus. in color.
Sprache englisch
Themenwelt Sozialwissenschaften Soziologie Empirische Sozialforschung
Sozialwissenschaften Soziologie Spezielle Soziologien
Schlagworte Decomposition • Modal Age • Mortality Model • Mortality Projection • Shifting Mortality
ISBN-10 981-99-2509-6 / 9819925096
ISBN-13 978-981-99-2509-4 / 9789819925094
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