Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis
Edinburgh University Press (Verlag)
9781474466349 (ISBN)
Reveals that a key element of current training provided to the UK and US intelligence communities (and likely all 5-EYES and several European agencies) does not have a proven ability to mitigate cognitive biasesDemonstrates that judging the credibility of information from human sources means that intelligence analysis faces greater complexity and cognitive strain than non-intelligence analysisExplains the underlying causes cognitive biases, based on meta-analyses of existing researchShows that identifying the ideal conditions for intelligence analysis is a more effective way of reducing the risk of cognitive bias than the use of ACH
Recent high-profile intelligence failures – from 9/11 to the 2003 Iraq war – prove that cognitive bias in intelligence analysis can have catastrophic consequences. This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). The author puts ACH to the test in an experimental setting against two key cognitive biases with unique empirical research facilitated by UK’s Professional Heads of Intelligence Analysis unit at the Cabinet Office, and finds that the theoretical basis of the ACH method is significantly flawed. Combining the insight of a practitioner with over 11 years of experience in intelligence with both philosophical theory and experimental research, the author proposes an alternative approach to mitigating cognitive bias that focuses on creating the optimum environment for analysis, challenging current leading theories.
Martha Whitesmith is Senior Intelligence Analyst at the Ministry of Defence.
Introduction
Part I: Intelligence, Bias and Belief Acquisition: A Theoretical Perspective
1. Intelligence and Belief AcquisitionA Taxonomy of IntelligenceHow can Knowledge be Acquired?
2. The Efficacy of ACH in Establishing Epistemic Justification and Mitigating Cognitive BiasThe Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) Method Consistency of Information as an Indicator of TruthDiagnostic Value of Information as an Indicator of TruthSubjective Bayesianism as an Indicator of TruthCredibility of Information as an Indicator of TruthACH and the Mitigation of Cognitive BiasIntelligence, Bias and Belief Acquisition: A Theoretical Perspective
Part II: Intelligence, Bias and Belief Acquisition: An Empirical Perspective
3. The Efficacy of ACH in Mitigating Serial Position Effects and Confirmation Bias in an Intelligence Analysis ScenarioProcedure Results Discussion and Conclusions
4. Predicting Serial Position EffectsPredicting Serial Position Effects An Examination of Previous Serial Position Effects Prediction ModelsThe Impact of Analytical Conditions on Serial Position Effects
5. Predicting Confirmation BiasAn Examination of Previous Confirmation Bias Prediction Models The Impact of Analytical Conditions on Confirmation Bias Intelligence, Bias and Belief Acquisition: An Empirical Perspective
6. Reducing the Risk of Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis Recommendations for Future Research and Best Practice for Intelligence Analysis
AppendicesReferencesBibliography
| Erscheinungsdatum | 25.09.2020 |
|---|---|
| Reihe/Serie | Intelligence, Surveillance and Secret Warfare |
| Verlagsort | Edinburgh |
| Sprache | englisch |
| Maße | 156 x 234 mm |
| Gewicht | 604 g |
| Themenwelt | Geisteswissenschaften ► Psychologie ► Allgemeine Psychologie |
| Geisteswissenschaften ► Psychologie ► Verhaltenstherapie | |
| Sozialwissenschaften ► Politik / Verwaltung ► Europäische / Internationale Politik | |
| Sozialwissenschaften ► Politik / Verwaltung ► Staat / Verwaltung | |
| ISBN-13 | 9781474466349 / 9781474466349 |
| Zustand | Neuware |
| Informationen gemäß Produktsicherheitsverordnung (GPSR) | |
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