OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2016 Issue 1 (eBook)

Oecd (Autor)

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2016 | 1. Auflage
316 Seiten
OECD Publishing (Verlag)
978-92-64-25788-7 (ISBN)

Infos

The OECD Economic Outlook  is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances.

Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. This issue includes a general assessment, a special chapter on promoting productivity and equality, a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country and a statistical annex.

 

Inhalt

Table of contents 5
Summary of projections 10
Editorial: Policymakers: Act now to break out of the low-growth trap and deliver on our promises 11
Chapter 1. General Assessment of the Macroeconomic Situation 13
Introduction 14
Economic prospects and risks 15
Figure 1.1. Global GDP growth is set to remain subdued 15
Figure 1.2. Non-OECD import volume growth collapsed in 2015 16
Figure 1.3. Financial conditions in major advanced economies have become less supportive 16
Table 1.1. The global recovery will gain momentum only slowly 17
Figure 1.4. GDP growth projections for the major economies 17
Table 1.2. OECD labour market conditions will improve slowly 18
Figure 1.5. Labour market outcomes are improving slowly 19
Figure 1.6. Weak investment and productivity growth have hit potential output growth 20
Figure 1.7. Capital stock growth and the investment rate will pick up from low levels 21
Figure 1.8. Investment growth is expected to strengthen in the euro area and the United States 22
Figure 1.9. The composition of total investment growth in advanced countries will continue to differ 23
Figure 1.10. Contributions to the annual growth of OECD and non-OECD import volumes 24
Table 1.3. World trade growth remains very weak 24
Figure 1.11. China is on-shoring its value chain 25
Figure 1.12. Stronger trade growth would help to boost productivity 26
Figure 1.13. Broad measures of labour market slack remain elevated 27
Figure 1.14. Participation rates have risen but labour force growth has slowed in several countries 28
Figure 1.15. The relationship between wage growth and unemployment has changed in some countries 29
Figure 1.16. Energy prices have pulled down inflation across the OECD 30
Figure 1.17. The unemployment gap has recently contributed little to price inflation 31
Box 1.1. Financial market shocks from Brexit 33
The impact of financial shocks on real GDP by 2018 35
Figure 1.18. Credit has increased substantially in some large EMEs 36
Figure 1.19. EME's external vulnerabilities have increased due to exchange rate depreciations 37
Policy requirements 38
Figure 1.20. Real short and long-term interest rates have been low or negative 39
Box 1.2. Effects of central bank negative interest rates 40
Interest rates have become negative across different maturities 40
Characteristics of negative interest rate frameworks 41
Figure 1.21. The slope of the yield curve has declined 42
Figure 1.22. Some central banks have become dominant holders of domestic government bonds 43
Figure 1.23. Markets have become pessimistic about the outlook for banks 44
Figure 1.24. Fiscal stances in OECD countries 45
Box 1.3. Conditions for an increase in public investment to lift growth in OECD economies 46
Long-term effect of a sustained increase in public investment by 0.5% of GDP 47
Box 1.4. Structural reform priorities in difficult macroeconomic conditions 48
Bibliography 49
Annex 1.1. Policy and other assumptions underlying the projections 52
Annex 1.2. Indicators of potential financial vulnerabilities 54
Table 1.A2.1. Indicators of potential financial vulnerabilities 56
Table 1.A2.2. Financial-accounts-related risk factors to financial stability 58
Chapter 2. Promoting Productivity and Equality: A Twin Challenge 61
Summary 62
Introduction 63
The twin challenge: slowing productivity and rising inequality 63
Figure 2.1. Productivity growth has declined since the 1990s 64
Figure 2.2. Labour income of the typical worker has grown less than productivity 65
Figure 2.3. The redistributive power of taxes and transfers has declined since the 1990s 66
Figure 2.4. Disposable income inequality has increased since 1990 67
Figure 2.5. Labour productivity growth has been low during the cyclical downturn after the global financial crisis 68
Figure 2.6. The productivity gap between the globally most productive firms and other firms has widened 69
Figure 2.7. Labour income inequality and productivity dispersion across firms are positively correlated 72
Policies to promote productivity and equality 72
Table 2.1. The effects on growth, productivity and equality vary across different public spending policies 74
Figure 2.8. Changing the spending structure in favour of public investment can deliver large income gains for households across the distribution 75
Figure 2.9. Reduced regulation in network industries has increased income across the distribution 77
Figure 2.10. Reduced regulation in network industries has increased labour market transitions for low-income groups 80
Figure 2.11. Equity finance has been more favourable to growth than credit finance 81
Conclusion 82
Figure 2.12. The financial sector wage premium1 increases along the earnings distribution 82
Bibliography 83
Chapter 3. Developments in Individual OECD and Selected Non-Member Economies 87
Australia 88
Austria 91
Belgium 94
Brazil 97
Canada 101
Chile 106
China 109
Colombia 113
Costa Rica 116
Czech Republic 119
Denmark 122
Estonia 125
Euro Area 128
Finland 133
France 136
Germany 140
Greece 144
Hungary 147
Iceland 150
India 153
Indonesia 157
Ireland 160
Israel 163
Italy 166
Japan 170
Korea 175
Latvia 178
Lithuania 181
Luxembourg 184
Mexico 187
Netherlands 190
New Zealand 193
Norway 196
Poland 199
Portugal 202
Russia 205
Slovak Republic 209
Slovenia 212
South Africa 215
Spain 218
Sweden 221
Switzerland 224
Turkey 227
United Kingdom 230
United States 235
Statistical Annex 241
Annex Tables 247
Annex Table 1. Real GDP 249
Annex Table 2. Nominal GDP 250
Annex Table 3. Real private consumption expenditure 251
Annex Table 4. Real public consumption expenditure 252
Annex Table 5. Real total gross fixed capital formation 253
Annex Table 6. Real gross private non-residential fixed capital formation 254
Annex Table 7. Real gross residential fixed capital formation 255
Annex Table 8. Real total domestic demand 256
Annex Table 9. Foreign balance contributions to changes in real GDP 257
Annex Table 10. Quarterly demand and output projections 258
Annex Table 11. Contributions to changes in real GDP in OECD countries 260
Annex Table 12. Output gaps 262
Annex Table 13. GDP deflators 263
Annex Table 14. Private consumption deflators 264
Annex Table 15. Consumer price indices 265
Annex Table 16. Oil and other primary commodity markets 266
Annex Table 17. Compensation per employee 267
Annex Table 18. Labour productivity 268
Annex Table 19. Employment and labour force 269
Annex Table 20. Labour force, employment and unemployment 270
Annex Table 21. Unemployment rates: national definitions 271
Annex Table 22. Harmonised unemployment rates 272
Annex Table 23. Quarterly price, cost and unemployment projections 273
Annex Table 24. Potential GDP and productive capital stock 274
Annex Table 25. Structural unemployment and unit labour costs 275
Annex Table 26. Household saving rates 276
Annex Table 27. Gross national saving 277
Annex Table 28. Household wealth and indebtedness 278
Annex Table 29. General government total outlays 279
Annex Table 30. General government total tax and non-tax receipts 280
Annex Table 31. General government financial balances 281
Annex Table 32. General government cyclically-adjusted balances 282
Annex Table 33. General government underlying balances 283
Annex Table 34. General government underlying primary balances 284
Annex Table 35. General government net debt interest payments 285
Annex Table 36. General government gross financial liabilities 286
Annex Table 37. General government net financial liabilities 287
Annex Table 38. Maastricht definition of general government gross public debt 288
Annex Table 39. Short-term interest rates 289
Annex Table 40. Long-term interest rates 290
Annex Table 41. Nominal exchange rates (vis-à-vis the US dollar) 291
Annex Table 42. Effective exchange rates 292
Annex Table 43. Nominal house prices 293
Annex Table 44. Real house prices 294
Annex Table 45. House price-to-rent ratio 295
Annex Table 46. House price-to-income ratio 296
Annex Table 47. Export volumes of goods and services 297
Annex Table 48. Import volumes of goods and services 298
Annex Table 49. Export prices of goods and services 299
Annex Table 50. Import prices of goods and services 300
Annex Table 51. Indicators of competitiveness based on relative consumer prices 301
Annex Table 52. Indicators of competitiveness based on relative unit labour costs 302
Annex Table 53. Export market growth in goods and services 303
Annex Table 54. Export performance for total goods and services 304
Annex Table 55. Import penetration 305
Annex Table 56. Shares in world exports and imports 306
Annex Table 57. Geographical structure of world trade growth 307
Annex Table 58. Trade balances for goods and services 308
Annex Table 59. Balance of primary income 309
Annex Table 60. Balance of secondary income 310
Annex Table 61. Current account balances 311
Annex Table 62. Current account balances as a percentage of GDP 312
Annex Table 63. Structure of current account balances of major world regions 313

Textauszug

Chapter 1. General Assessment of the Macroeconomic Situation

Introduction

Eight years after the financial crisis, the recovery remains disappointingly weak. Global GDP growth is projected to be 3% in 2016, unchanged from last year, with only a modest improvement foreseen in 2017. Global trade growth also remains very subdued. Many emerging market economies (EMEs) have lost momentum, with sharp downturns in some, especially commodity producers. The upturn in the advanced economies remains modest, with growth held back by slow wage gains and subdued investment. Low commodity prices and accommodative monetary policies continue to offer support in many economies, albeit punctuated by periods of tightened and volatile financial conditions, especially early in the year. All this culminates in growth rates much weaker than anticipated a few years ago and well below pre-crisis norms. Moreover, such a prolonged period of slow growth has damaged the longer-run supply-side potential of economies, via the scarring effect of extended unemployment, foregone investment and the adverse impact of weak trade growth on productivity.

Financial instability risks also persist. EMEs have high private debt burdens and remain vulnerable to capital outflows and weaker-than-expected growth. Risks also stem from the difficulties of agreeing effective responses to policy challenges in many countries. In Europe, these include the refugee surge and the unpopularity of austerity measures in a number of countries. The forthcoming UK referendum on EU membership has already raised uncertainty, and an exit would depress growth in Europe and elsewhere substantially. In China, the risk of an abrupt near-term growth decline has eased as policy stimulus takes effect, but the choices will likely slow the rebalancing process and raise financial exposures, adding to longer term challenges.

To break out of this low rate of global economic growth requires comprehensive national policies, incorporating more proactive fiscal prioritisation and revived structural ambition in combination with accommodative monetary policies. It is clear that reliance on monetary policy alone has failed to deliver satisfactory growth and inflation. Additional monetary policy easing could now prove to be less effective than in the past, and even counterproductive in some circumstances. Many countries have room for fiscal expansion to strengthen activity via public investment, following the lead of China and Canada, especially as low long-term interest rates have effectively increased fiscal space, at least temporarily. Almost all countries have scope to reallocate public spending towards more growth-friendly items. Collective action across economies to raise public investment in carefully selected projects with a high growth impact would boost demand without compromising fiscal sustainability. In addition, collective efforts to revive structural reform momentum would improve productivity, resource allocation and the effects of supportive macroeconomic policies. Given the weak global economy and the backdrop of rising income inequality in many countries, structural reforms will need to focus on the possible short-term benefits for demand as well as measures to promote long-term improvements in employment, productivity growth and inclusiveness, as discussed in Chapter 2.

Economic prospects and risks

The recovery is projected to remain slow

Global GDP growth remains modest (Figure 1.1). This reflects a combination of subdued aggregate demand, poor underlying supply-side developments, with weak investment, trade and productivity growth, and diminished reform momentum. In recent months, soft domestic demand in the advanced economies, especially the United States, has added to the pressures stemming from the growth slowdown in many EMEs. Policy stimulus is helping to hold up demand in China, but deep recessions persist in Brazil and Russia. Global trade growth is again weak this year (Figure 1.2), with little or no growth in the first quarter, especially in many Asian economies, consistent with the recent slowdown in the level of new orders in global business surveys. Though firming recently, commodity prices remain relatively low, reflecting ample supply and persisting concerns about future demand strength. Financial market sentiment has improved after considerable volatility earlier in the year. Nevertheless, declines in equity prices and stronger effective exchange rates, and in the United States a further tightening of credit conditions, mean that aggregate financial conditions in the major economies generally remain tighter than in the latter half of 2015, despite additional supportive monetary policy measures in the euro area and Japan (Figure 1.3).

Figure 1.1. Global GDP growth is set to remain subdued

Year-on-year percentage changes

Source: OECD Economic Outlook 99 database.

StatLink  http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888933367262

Figure 1.2. Non-OECD import volume growth collapsed in 2015

Year-on-year percentage changes

Source: OECD Economic Outlook 99 database.

StatLink  http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888933367279

Figure 1.3. Financial conditions in major advanced economies have become less supportive

OECD financial conditions index

Note: The OECD financial conditions index is a weighted average of real short and long-term interest rates, real exchange rate, bank credit conditions, household wealth and the yield spread between corporate and government long-term bonds. A unit increase (decline) in the index implies an easing (tightening) in financial conditions sufficient to produce an average increases (reduction) in the level of GDP of ½ to 1% after four to six quarters. See details in Guichard et al. (2009). Based on available information up to 18 May 2016.

Source: OECD Economic Outlook 99 database; Thomson Reuters; and OECD calculations.

StatLink  http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888933367289

Only a slow recovery appears likely for global growth and trade over the latter half of 2016 and through 2017 (Table 1.1).

Table 1.1. The global recovery will gain momentum only slowly

StatLink  http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888933368831

• OECD GDP growth is projected to be just under 2% on average over 2016-17, broadly in line with outcomes in the previous two years (Figure 1.4, Panel A). Supportive macroeconomic policies and low commodity prices (Annex 1.1) should continue to underpin a modest recovery in the advanced economies, assuming that wage increases and business investment growth both start to pick up and tensions in financial markets do not reoccur. However, weakness in external demand stemming from the EMEs remains a drag on the advanced economies.

• In the United States, a moderate recovery is expected to continue as headwinds from the strong dollar and declining energy sector investment fade. A gradual upturn in wage growth is projected to support domestic demand as the labour market approaches full employment, with a slow improvement in productivity growth limiting the emergence of labour market pressures. In Japan, GDP growth is likely to remain modest, with the tightening labour market having only a limited impact on nominal wage growth and sizeable fiscal consolidation projected in 2017. In the euro area, growth is projected to improve slowly, helped by the gradual impact of recent monetary policy easing on credit growth and, in some countries, additional fiscal spending to assist asylum seekers. However, still sizeable labour market slack, elevated debt burdens and non-performing loans continue to hamper the recovery in some countries.

• Non-OECD GDP growth should edge up as the sharp downturns in many commodity producers gradually ease (Figure 1.4, Panel B), provided commodity prices stabilise at their current level. However, EMEs are likely to experience diverse outcomes, reflecting differences in available policy support, the impact of low commodity prices, progress in enacting structural reforms and the extent of financial vulnerabilities. GDP growth is projected to continue moderating gradually in China, to around 6¼ per cent in 2017, as the economy rebalances from manufacturing to services. Recent fiscal policy measures provide considerable support to growth, via infrastructure and real estate investment, but also add to the challenges of achieving a smooth rebalancing and avoiding financial tensions. Solid growth should persist in India and Indonesia, helped respectively by a large planned increase in public sector wages and substantially higher infrastructure spending. The outlook for Brazil and Russia remains challenging, given the hit to incomes from low commodity prices, still high inflation, fiscal difficulties and, in Brazil, heightened political uncertainty.

Figure 1.4. GDP growth projections for the major economies

Year-on-year percentage changes

1. Fiscal years.

Source: OECD Economic Outlook 99 database.

StatLink  http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888933367297

Given this low...

Produkt-Details

• Erscheint lt. Verlag: 1.6.2016
• Sprache: englisch
• Themenwelt: Sozialwissenschaften ► Politik / Verwaltung ► Staat / Verwaltung
• Themenwelt: Wirtschaft ► Volkswirtschaftslehre ► Wirtschaftspolitik
• ISBN-10: 92-64-25788-8 / 9264257888
• ISBN-13: 978-92-64-25788-7 / 9789264257887