Boom Bust (eBook)

House Prices, Banking and the Depression of 2010

Fred Harrison (Autor)

eBook Download: EPUB

2010
198 Seiten
Shepheard Walwyn (Publishers) (Verlag)
978-0-85683-312-0 (ISBN)

Infos

In the two and a half years since the first edition appeared (April 2005), events have unfolded as predicted. Then the consensus among forecasters was that the boom in house prices would cool to an annual 2 or 3% rise over the following years. In fact, in keeping with the 'winner's curse' phase of the cycle described by the author, prices rose by more than 10% per annum in Britain. Harrison's first book, The Power in the Land, predicted the early 1990s recession. Boom Bust, warned that investing in property is not always a safe bet, because the housing market is subject to a sharp downturn at the end of a remarkably regular 18-year cycle. The crash of 2007/8 occurred exactly as predicted. His forecast was based on a careful study of the evidence from property markets in many countries over the last 200 years. Gordon Brown's claim, last made in his 2007 Budget speech, that 'we will never return to the old boom and bust' has been proved false. The reason for the instability, Harrison explains, is not the housing market itself but the land market on which all buildings stand. Land is in fixed supply ' as Mark Twain noted: 'They're not making any more of it'. Therefore, as the demand for land for new homes and offices rises with population growth and economic expansion, market forces, which normally increase supply to reduce prices, have the reverse effect: prices rise. This encourages speculation, with banks lending more against escalating asset values and reinforcing the upward spiral. Under existing government policies, the only way land prices can be brought back to affordable levels is a slump, undermining the banking system and causing widespread unemployment and repossessions. This is exactly what happened in America with the collapse of the sub-prime mortgage market. The run on Northern Rock showed the UK economy is not immune.

Fred Harrison is Executive Director for the Land Research Trust. He studied economics at Oxford, first at Ruskin College and then at University College, where he read Philosophy, Politics and Economics. His MSc is from the University of London. He cut short a career as an investigative journalist in Fleet Street and embarked on a 10-year sojourn in Russia, following the collapse of communism, acting as an advisor to a number of Russian academic and political bodies, including the Duma (parliament), in order to help the Russian people avoid the economics favoured by rent-seekers.

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Using the United Kingdom as a case study, this well-researched account shows how, for more than 200 years, a remarkably regular 18-year cycle of boom and bust can be traced to the peaks and troughs in land prices. This exploration reveals how governments, during the upswing of the cycle, are complicit in encouraging a belief that property prices will continue upwards indefinitely because of their skilled management of the economy and attributes the current crises to public policy on both sides of the Atlantic. An alternative plan to neutralize the next boom-one that would lead to a more stable and environmentally friendly economy with a more equitable distribution of wealth-is also presented.

Produkt-Details

• Erscheint lt. Verlag: 8.8.2012
• Sprache: englisch
• Themenwelt: Naturwissenschaften ► Biologie ► Ökologie / Naturschutz
• Themenwelt: Recht / Steuern ► Steuern / Steuerrecht
• Themenwelt: Wirtschaft ► Allgemeines / Lexika
• Themenwelt: Wirtschaft ► Betriebswirtschaft / Management ► Rechnungswesen / Bilanzen
• Themenwelt: Betriebswirtschaft / Management ► Spezielle Betriebswirtschaftslehre ► Immobilienwirtschaft
• Themenwelt: Wirtschaft ► Volkswirtschaftslehre ► Finanzwissenschaft
• Themenwelt: Wirtschaft ► Volkswirtschaftslehre ► Wirtschaftspolitik
• ISBN-10: 0-85683-312-6 / 0856833126
• ISBN-13: 978-0-85683-312-0 / 9780856833120