OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2016 (eBook)

Oecd (Autor)

eBook Download: EPUB

2016 | 1. Auflage
192 Seiten
OECD Publishing (Verlag)
978-92-64-26808-1 (ISBN)

Infos

The fully revamped and re-titled OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook is a biennial publication that aims to inform policy makers and analysts on recent and future changes in global science, technology and innovation (STI) patterns and their potential implications on and for national and international STI policies. Based on the most recent data available, the report provides comparative analysis of new policies and instruments being used in OECD countries and a number of major emerging economies (including Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, the Russian Federation and South Africa) to boost the contribution of science and innovation to growth and to global and social challenges. In this edition, detailed country and policy profiles are available on line.

Inhalt

Foreword 5
Acknowledgements 7
Table of contents 11
Acronyms 15
Executive summary 19
Chapter 1.Megatrends affecting science, technology and innovation 23
Introduction 24
Figure.Eight megatrend areas covered in this chapter 27
Demography 28
Population growth in less developed countries 30
Ageing societies 30
International migration 31
Natural resources and energy 32
Natural resources and energy 34
Water 34
Food 35
Energy 36
The water-food-energy nexus 37
Climate change and environment 38
The world is warming 40
Consequences for climate, ecosystems and health are dramatic 41
Global biodiversity is at threat 41
Waste recycling and the premises of the circular economy 43
Globalisation 44
Globalisation 46
Trade and global value chains 46
Multinational enterprises 47
Global digital flows 47
Globalisation of illicit trade 48
Political globalisation 48
International mobility through tertiary education 49
Role of governments 50
The changing economic development roles of government 52
The role of government in supporting research 52
A fiscal crisis of the State? 53
A crisis of confidence in government? 53
Growing instability in the international State system? 53
Growing significance of non-state actors 54
Economy, jobs and productivity 56
The future of productivity growth 58
The centre of gravity of the world economy is moving east and southwards 58
Digital technologies will further disrupt economies 59
The rise of digital platforms 59
Future jobs 60
The future of finance 61
Society 62
Families and households 64
Closing gender gaps 64
More connected societies 64
Global middle class and consumption 65
Urbanisation 65
Health, inequality and well-being 66
Wealth and income distribution: towards global convergence 68
Local divergence in incomes and wealth 68
Growing levels of education 69
Infectious diseases 69
Non-communicable and neurological diseases 70
Advances in medical research and technologies 70
Concluding remarks 72
References 72
Chapter 2.Future technology trends 79
Introduction 80
Figure 2.1. 40 key and emerging technologies for the future 81
The Internet of Things 82
The Internet of everything 82
The IoT is spreading rapidly 82
The IoT will transform societies 82
Figure 2.2. Online devices, top 24 countries, 2015 83
Further development of the IoT is challenged by high ICT-related costs and emerging skills needs 84
There are persisting technological uncertainties 84
At the core of all concerns is an issue of trust 84
Big data analytics 85
Making sense and value of big data 85
Big data will bring tremendous opportunities for businesses and consumers 85
Figure 2.3. Main patenting economies in selected emerging technologies 86
Big data will bring opportunities for the public sector as well 86
In particular, research systems and the healthcare sector are set to benefit 86
Gaps in IT, skills and legal infrastructures still need to be filled 87
There is a risk of widening social inequalities 87
Privacy, security and integrity are also at stake 87
Artificial intelligence 88
When machines start thinking 88
The rise of intelligent machines 88
AI may deeply disrupt industry 89
AI may revolutionise a broad range of services too 89
Figure 2.4. Algorithms conduct more and more trades autonomously 89
AI could augur massive “creative destruction” 90
Reaping the benefits of AI depends on several framework conditions being in place 90
AI may change humans in unforeseeable ways 90
Neurotechnologies 91
What are neurotechnologies? 91
Neurotechnologies hold great promise for new therapies and human enhancement 91
Advances in brain science are key to developing novel neurotechnologies (and vice versa) 92
Table 2.1. Major initiatives in brain science and technology 92
Brain science and neurotechnologies are resource-intensive undertakings 93
Neurotechnologies carry risks 93
Neurotechnologies raise important societal questions 93
Nano/microsatellites 94
Ever smaller, cheaper and faster 94
Figure 2.5. Launch history and projection for nano- and microsatellites, 2009-20 95
Interest in small satellites continues to grow worldwide 95
Further expansion of the small satellites industry faces several challenges 96
What are the STI policy implications? 96
Nanomaterials 97
Nanomaterials have unique properties 97
Nanomaterials are expected to have many areas of application 97
Figure 2.6. Nanotechnology patents by sub-area and total, 1985-2012 98
Private sector research on nanomaterials is dominated by multinational enterprises 99
Outstanding technical and environmental concerns restrict the application of nanomaterials 99
Additive manufacturing 100
A new manufacturing paradigm is emerging 100
AM promises to expand the capacities of production processes 100
Figure 2.7. Worldwide industrial additive manufacturing revenue per sector 101
Figure 2.8. What do companies use additive manufacturing technologies for? 101
AM will lead to innovation in health, medicine and biotechnology 102
AM will also benefit metal processing in a range of industries 102
Accelerated digitisation and environmental concerns will influence the demand for AM technologies 102
The wide adoption of AM still faces several obstacles and risks 103
Advanced energy storage technologies 103
Energy storage technologies are essential to bridge temporal and geographical gaps between energy demand and supply 103
Energy storage technologies represent considerable economic potential with far-reaching business opportunities 104
Figure 2.9. Maturity of energy storage technologies 104
Small-scale applications – in electric mobility and portable consumer electronics – will be important demand drivers 104
Large-scale applications in grid energy storage will steer demand as well 105
Advanced energy storage technologies are expected to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 105
Further R& D is imperative to improve the cost efficiency of energy storage
Synthetic biology 106
Synthetic biology attempts to reshape living systems on the basis of a rational blueprint 106
Synthetic biology promises radical innovations across a wide range of business sectors 107
Figure 2.10. Applications of synthetic biology across sectors 107
Two emerging developments that could transform synthetic biology 107
The development of synthetic biology faces several obstacles, including biohazard concerns 108
Synthetic biology raises ethical issues 108
There are also substantial technical and legal uncertainties 108
Blockchain 109
What is blockchain technology? 109
Blockchain technology could disrupt many sectors 109
Several technological uncertainties remain 111
Figure 2.11. Total computing power of the Bitcoin network 111
The resolution of technological uncertainties could enable unlawful activities 112
Concluding remarks 112
Note 114
References 114
Further reading 119
Annex 2.A1.Foresight exercises mapped in this Chapter 120
Canada – Metascan 3: Emerging technologies: A foresight study exploring how emerging technologies will shape the economy and society and the challenges and opportunities they will create (2013) 120
European Union – Preparing the Commission for future opportunities: Foresight network fiches 2030 (2014) 120
Finland – 100 Opportunities for Finland and the World: Radical Technology Inquirer (RTI) for anticipation/ evaluation of technological breakthroughs (2014) 121
Germany – Science and Technology Perspectives 2030 (Forschungs- und Technologieperspektiven: Ergebnisband 2 zur Suchphase von BMBF-Foresight Zyklus II) (2015) 121
United Kingdom – Technology and Innovation Futures: UK Growth Opportunities for the 2020s – 2012 Refresh (2012) 121
Russian Federation – Russia 2030: Science and Technology Foresight (2014) 121
Annex 2.A2.Foresight studies mapping by main technology area 123
Table A2.1. Foresight Studies mapping – biotechnologies 123
Table A2.2. Foresight studies mapping – Advanced materials 124
Table A2.3. Foresight studies mapping – Digital technologies 125
Table A2.4. Foresight studies mapping – Energy and environment 126
Chapter 3.The future of science systems 129
Introduction 130
Figure 3.1. Outline and main issues of Chapter 3 131
3.1. What resources will be dedicated to public research? 131
Figure 3.2. Business and public investment have expanded global research capacity 132
Figure 3.3. Public R& D budgets are likely to plateau around current ratios
Figure 3.4. Global public research is performed in a few OECD countries and partner economies 134
3.2. Who will fund public research? 134
Figure 3.5. Public research funding is concentrated in governments’ hands 135
3.3. What public research will be performed and why? 136
Figure 3.7. Growing societal concerns are changing balances in public R& D budgets
Box 3.1. The Sustainable Development Goals and STI 137
Figure 3.8. Economies are setting R& D budgetary priorities to better address grand challenges
3.4. Who will perform public research? 140
Figure 3.9. Public research has shifted towards universities 140
3.5. How will public research be performed? 141
Figure 3.10. International collaboration networks in science are extending and deepening 143
Figure 3.11. Open access publishing is on the rise 144
Figure 3.12. Open access publishing practices vary across fields of science 144
Box 3.2. Two main publishing models have emerged to promote open access to scientific articles 145
Box 3.3. Platform science: towards a single “operating system of science”? 146
Figure 3.13. Data-driven research is growing rapidly 148
3.6. What will public research careers look like? 148
Figure 3.14. There are more new doctorates worldwide, including in emerging economies 149
Figure 3.15. The supply of doctorates in science and engineering shows some signs of slowdown 150
Figure 3.16. The public sector accounts for a disproportionate share of employed researchers 152
Figure 3.17. Women remain away from top academic positions in Europe 152
3.7. What outputs and impacts will be expected of public research? 153
Figure 3.18. Scientific production has increased worldwide but rankings of excellence are slower to change 154
Box 3.4. Paving the way for better metrics and more appropriate use 154
3.8. What will public research policy and governance look like? 156
Box 3.5. Public sector innovation 157
Notes 158
References 159
Chapter 4.Recent trends in national science and innovation policies 163
Key messages 164
Introduction: the legacy of recent years 166
Box 4.1. EC/OECD International Science, Technology and Innovation Policy (STIP) Survey 167
4.1. Overview of the STIP survey results 168
Figure 4.1. Overall STI policy attention is focused on business innovation, research and skills 168
Figure 4.2. STI policy focus has shifted towards more immediate economic imperatives and policy efficiency gains 169
4.2. The drivers of growth and innovation have weakened 169
Recent growth performance has been disappointing 169
Figure 4.3. STI policy action has slightly changed focus, form and target in recent years 170
Figure 4.4. Synopsis of current economic conditions and impact on innovation capacity, selected countries 171
Figure 4.5. Shrinking growth gaps between advanced and emerging economies 172
Investment in intangible assets seems to be slowing 172
Figure 4.6. Cross-country investments in intellectual assets 173
Productivity growth is low and public budgets are under pressure 174
4.3. Escaping the slow growth trap and strengthening economic growth 174
Restoring the terms of competitiveness 174
Boosting firms’ potential to innovate 175
Figure 4.7. Public support to business R& D has increased significantly over recent years
Figure 4.8. More public support has gone to firms through more generous R& D tax incentives
Figure 4.9. Major funding instruments in the policy mix for business innovation, 2016 179
Figure 4.10. Many countries have consolidated and merged existing support schemes 180
Figure 4.11. Addressing the slow recovery of financing conditions for innovation and entrepreneurship 180
Figure 4.12. Towards a stronger focus on demand-side approaches in the policy mix 181
Figure 4.13. The use and policy relevance of R& D tax incentives remain extremely uneven across countries
Box 4.2. The rise of crowdfunding 185
Keeping pace with global competition 184
4.4. Reorienting public research 186
Rationalising public research spending and accelerating knowledge transfer 186
Enabling interdisciplinary research and open science 188
4.5. Broadening the skills and culture for innovation 189
4.6. Improving policy governance 189
Towards more evidence-based policies 189
Towards more responsible STI policies 190
Notes 191
References 192

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Acknowledgements

The STI Outlook is prepared under the aegis of the OECD Committee for Scientific and Technological Policy (CSTP), with input from its working parties. CSTP Delegates contributed significantly through their responses to the joint European Commission/OECD International Survey on Science, Technology and Innovation Policy (STIP), formerly the biennial STI Outlook policy questionnaire, and through their comments on the draft chapters.

The STI Outlook 2016 is a collective effort and takes a horizontal approach, co-ordinated by the Science and Technology Policy (STP) Division of the OECD Directorate for Science, Technology and Innovation (DSTI). It is produced under the guidance of Dominique Guellec. Sandrine Kergroach served as the overall co-ordinator and Sylvain Fraccola as the administrative co-ordinator.

Chapter 1, “Megatrends affecting science, technology and innovation”, was prepared by Michael Keenan and Sandrine Kergroach, with Sylvain Fraccola designing the infographics. Ozcan Saritas of the Moscow Higher School of Economics, Barrie Stevens of the OECD International Futures Programme and Gabriel Velloso of the Karlsruher Institut für Technologie provided valuable contributions. Thanks to Vincent Finat-Duclos of the OECD Public Affairs and Communication Directorate (PAC) for his insights on visualisation.

Chapter 2, “Future technology trends”, was prepared by Andrés Barreneche, Steffi Friedrichs, Hermann Garden, Claire Jolly, Sandrine Kergroach, Jim Philp and Jakob Pruess, under the guidance of Michael Keenan. It is based on work carried out by the OECD Working Party on Innovation and Technology Policy (TIP), the OECD Working Party on Biotechnology, Nanotechnology and Converging Technologies (BNCT) and the OECD Space Forum. Contributions were also provided by Charlotte van Ooijen of the DSTI, Alexandra Mogyoros of the University of Oxford and Darja Vrščaj of the Eindhoven University of Technology. Anne Carblanc and Molly Lesher shared comments on the basis of the current activities of the OECD Committee for Digital Economy Policy (CDEP).

Chapter 3, “The future of science systems”, was prepared by Michael Keenan and Sandrine Kergroach, and research assistance was provided by Alexandra Mogyoros of the University of Oxford and Darja Vrščaj of the Eindhoven University of Technology. This chapter also benefited from the observations of several external experts: Wiebe Bijker of Maastricht University, Philip Boucher of the European Parliament Science and Technology Options Assessment Foresight Unit (the EC JRC Foresight and Behavioural Insights Unit at the time he was interviewed), Arie Rip of the University of Twente, Tsjalling Swierstra of Maastricht University, Barend van der Meulen of the Rathenau Institute, Harro van Lente of Maastricht University, Geert Verbong of the Eindhoven University of Technology, Werner Wobbe of the EU Directorate General for Research and Innovation (DG RTD) Foresight Unit (at the time he was interviewed) and Sally Wyatt of Maastricht University. Their insights were collected during face-to-face interviews conducted by Darja Vrščaj in preparation of the STI Outlook 2016.

Chapters 1,  2 and 3 were designed and prepared following a forward-looking exercise conducted in 2015-16 and co-led by Michael Keenan and Sandrine Kergroach. In the framework of this exercise, a series of internal and external workshops were organised involving DSTI colleagues but also various OECD Directorates and bodies beyond the DSTI: the Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs and Local Development (CFE), the Directorate for Education and Skills (EDU), the Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs (ELS), the Environment Directorate, the Directorate of Public Governance and Territorial Development (GOV), the Trade and Agriculture Directorate, the Office of the Secretary-General, the Global Science Forum (GSF), the International Energy Agency, the International Futures Programme and the International Transport Forum. The forward-look chapters also benefited from discussions held during dedicated workshops involving country delegates of the CSTP, the TIP and the GSF. Mini-workshops were also organised in Korea, the United States and China with the help of, respectively, Byeongwon Park (STEPI – Science and Technology Policy Institute of Korea), Susan Fridy (OECD Washington Center) and Mu Rongping (Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences). Interviews with several OECD experts helped gather further knowledge. Thanks also to the following DSTI colleagues: Koen de Backer, Mario Cervantes, Chiara Criscuolo, Fernando Galindo-Rueda, Hermann Garden, Dominique Guellec, Alistair Nolan, Caroline Paunov, Mariagrazia Squicciarini, Vincenzo Spiezia, Carthage Smith and David Winickoff.

Chapter 4, “Recent international trends in STI policies”, was prepared by Sandrine Kergroach based on recent CSTP and TIP activities. It draws on country responses to the 2016 EC/OECD International STIP Survey.

As in the past, the STI Outlook policy profiles were prepared with a collaborative approach. Policy profiles and their analytical framework were designed by Sandrine Kergroach, who ensured co-ordination and consistency.

Chapter 5, “STI Policy Profiles: Governance”, was prepared by Mario Cervantes, Steffi Friedrichs, Michael Keenan, Sandrine Kergroach, Philippe Larrue, Jakob Pruess, David Winickoff and Pluvia Zuniga on the basis of work conducted by the TIP and the BNCT and experience obtained through the OECD Country Reviews on Innovation Policy. Marco Daglio (GOV) prepared the STI policy profile on public sector innovation.

Chapter 6, “STI Policy Profiles: Globalisation of innovation policies”, was prepared by Koen de Backer based on work conducted by the OECD Committee on Industry, Innovation and Entrepreneurship (CIIE) together with Fernando Galindo-Rueda and Sandrine Kergroach based on work conducted by the CSTP and its Working Party of National Experts on Science and Technology Indicators (NESTI) and Frederic Sgard of the GSF. Gwénaël Jacotin and Stéphan Vincent-Lancrin (EDU) prepared the STI policy profile on the internationalisation of universities and public research.

Chapter 7, “STI Policy Profiles: Facing new societal and environmental challenges”, was prepared by Andrés Barreneche, Mario Cervantes and Jim Philp based on work done by the TIP and the BNCT, Elettra Ronchi on the basis of work conducted by the CDEP and Caroline Paunov on the basis of TIP and more general OECD activities on inclusive innovation.

Chapter 8, “STI Policy Profiles: Innovation in firms” was prepared by Silvia Appelt, Mario Cervantes, Sylvain Fraccola, Fernando Galindo-Rueda, Sandrine Kergroach and Jakob Pruess on the basis of work conducted by the CSTP, NESTI and TIP. Lucia Cusmano, Marco Marchese and Jonathan Potter (CFE) prepared the STI policy profile on start-ups and entrepreneurship.

Chapter 9, “STI Policy Profiles: Sectoral innovation”, was prepared by Giulia Ajmone-Marsan, Sarah Box, Mario Cervantes, Hermann Garden, Claire Jolly, Alistair Nolan and Jim Philp, all of the DSTI, on the basis of work conducted by the CSTP, the TIP, the BNCT, the CDEP and the OECD Space Forum. Valérie Paris (ELS) and Prof. Dr. Philippe Gorry of the Research Unit in Theoretical and Applied Economics of the University of Bordeaux prepared the policy profile on health innovation for rare diseases.

Chapter 10, “STI Policy Profiles: Universities and public research”, was prepared by Giulia Ajmone-Marsan, Andrés Barreneche, Mario Cervantes, Caroline Paunov, Frederic Sgard and Carthage Smith on the basis of work conducted by the CSTP, the TIP and the GSF.

Chapter 11, “STI Policy Profiles: Skills for innovation”, was prepared by Andrés Barreneche, Mario Cervantes, Sandrine Kergroach, Richard Scott and David Winickoff on the basis of work conducted by the CSTP, the TIP and the BNCT.

Chapter 12, “STI country profiles: Assessing STI performance”, was co-ordinated by Sylvain Fraccola and Sandrine Kergroach. The methodology was designed by Dominique Guellec and Sandrine Kergroach. Country profiles were prepared by Giulia Ajmone-Marsan, Koen de Backer, Andrés Barreneche, Stefano Baruffaldi, Sarah Box, Mario Cervantes, Qian Dai, Sylvain Fraccola, Steffi Friedrichs, Dominique Guellec, Gernot Hutschenreiter, Michael Keenan, Sandrine Kergroach, Philippe Larrue, Alistair Nolan, Daehyun Oh, Shizuo Oya, Caroline Paunov, Jakob Pruess, Carthage Smith, Yana Vaziakova, David Winickoff, Gang Zhang and Pluvia Zuniga, all of the DSTI, based on information gathered through the EC/OECD STI Policy Survey and drawing on TIP activities and the OECD Country reviews on innovation policy.

All components of the STI Outlook 2016 have been reviewed by and received valuable comments from the editorial board: Dominique Guellec, Dirk Pilat and Andrew Wyckoff of the DSTI.

Sandrine Kergroach supervised the development of the policy infrastructure (EC/OECD STIP database) and the statistical infrastructure (IPP.Stat). Sylvain Fraccola, Chiara Petroli, Jakob Pruess and Charlotte van Ooijen provided research assistance in processing the 2016 country responses. Thanks to Julien Chicot, Naoya Ono, Inmaculada Perianez-Forte, Chiara Petroli and Tomomi Watanabe for their pivotal work in implementing the former versions of the EC/OECD STI Policy database. Thanks to colleagues of the European Commission’s...

Produkt-Details

• Erscheint lt. Verlag: 8.12.2016
• Sprache: englisch
• Themenwelt: Mathematik / Informatik ► Informatik
• Themenwelt: Naturwissenschaften
• Themenwelt: Technik
• Themenwelt: Wirtschaft
• ISBN-10: 92-64-26808-1 / 9264268081
• ISBN-13: 978-92-64-26808-1 / 9789264268081