Historical Dynamics (eBook)

Why States Rise and Fall

Peter Turchin (Autor)

eBook Download: EPUB

2018
Princeton University Press (Verlag)
978-1-4008-8931-0 (ISBN)

Infos

Many historical processes are dynamic. Populations grow and decline. Empires expand and collapse. Religions spread and wither. Natural scientists have made great strides in understanding dynamical processes in the physical and biological worlds using a synthetic approach that combines mathematical modeling with statistical analyses. Taking up the problem of territorial dynamics--why some polities at certain times expand and at other times contract--this book shows that a similar research program can advance our understanding of dynamical processes in history. Peter Turchin develops hypotheses from a wide range of social, political, economic, and demographic factors: geopolitics, factors affecting collective solidarity, dynamics of ethnic assimilation/religious conversion, and the interaction between population dynamics and sociopolitical stability. He then translates these into a spectrum of mathematical models, investigates the dynamics predicted by the models, and contrasts model predictions with empirical patterns. Turchin's highly instructive empirical tests demonstrate that certain models predict empirical patterns with a very high degree of accuracy. For instance, one model accounts for the recurrent waves of state breakdown in medieval and early modern Europe. And historical data confirm that ethno-nationalist solidarity produces an aggressively expansive state under certain conditions (such as in locations where imperial frontiers coincide with religious divides). The strength of Turchin's results suggests that the synthetic approach he advocates can significantly improve our understanding of historical dynamics.

Autor

Peter Turchin is Professor of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at the University of Connecticut. He is the author of Quantitative Analysis of Movement and Complex Population Dynamics (Princeton).

Produkt-Details

• Erscheint lt. Verlag: 8.5.2018
• Reihe/Serie: Princeton Studies in Complexity
• Reihe/Serie: Princeton Studies in Complexity
• Zusatzinfo: 7 tables. 36 line illus.
• Verlagsort: Princeton
• Sprache: englisch
• Themenwelt: Geisteswissenschaften ► Geschichte
• Themenwelt: Mathematik / Informatik ► Mathematik ► Angewandte Mathematik
• Schlagworte: Addition • agrarian polities • agrarian society • Alemanni • Alternative hypothesis • Altruism • Anatolia • Approximation • Asabiya • Asabiyyah • Asia Minor • Austrasia • autocatalytic model • Avars (Caucasus) • Berbers • Black Death • boom–bust dynamics • boundless growth • Brandenburg-Prussia • bretons • burgundians • Byzantium • Carolingian dynasty • Carrying Capacity • Case study • chiefdom • class structure • Cliodynamics • Collective Action • collective solidarity • Collectivism • commoners • Competition • conflict legitimacy dynamics • cultural group selection • cultural regions • Cumans • decentralization • demographic-fiscal model • demographic-structural theory • Derivative • differential equation • Dynamical Processes • Dynamical system • Early Modern Europe • Eastern Europe • Elites • empires • Empirical Research • endogenous systems • English Revolution • Equation • Equilibrium • ethnic assimilation • ethnic group • Ethnic identity • ethnies • ethnogenesis • ethnokinetic model • ethnokinetics • Eurasian steppe • Europe • Explanation • Failed State • fall of the western roman empire • France • Free parameter • frontier index • Frontiers • Geopolitics • Golden Horde • Group dynamics • group selection • group solidarity • Hierarchical modeling • historical dynamics • Historical sociology • Holy Roman Empire • HUNS • hypothesis • Ibn Khaldun • Ideology • imperial boundaries • income • Individualism • Initial Condition • Institution • internal warfare • Jack Goldstone • Khazars • Kievan Rus' • Leveling (philosophy) • linguistic assimilation • Literature • logistic function • marchland position • Mathematical Modeling • Mathematical Models • Mathematical Theory • Merovingian dynasty • metaethnic fault lines • metaethnic frontiers • metaethnic frontier theory • metaethnie • metastable dynamics • nation state • negative feedback • Nobility • noninteractive model • Nonlinear Dynamics • Ostrogoths • Ottoman Empire • Paganism • Parameter • peasant • political cycles • Political Instability • polity dynamics • Population decline • population density • population dynamics • Population Growth • population numbers • population oscillations • Prediction • primary data • Principate • Probability • process order • Proportionality (mathematics) • quantitative theories • Quantity • Randall Collins • Rational Choice Theory • Religious Conversion • Research Program • result • Ruler • Russia • Saxons • Secondary data • secular cycles • secular oscillations • Slavs • Social capital • Social Dynamics • Social Science • socioeconomic dynamics • Sociology • sociopolitical stability • state breakdown • Statistical hypothesis testing • stochastic • sustained oscillations • Tax • territorial dynamics • theory • The Other Hand • threshold model • Tribe • Variable (mathematics) • Visigoths • vulnerability • war • warfare • Western Europe • West Francia • World-System
• ISBN-10: 1-4008-8931-6 / 1400889316
• ISBN-13: 978-1-4008-8931-0 / 9781400889310