System Dynamics Modeling with R (eBook)

Jim Duggan (Autor)

eBook Download: PDF

2016 | 1st ed. 2016
XVIII, 176 Seiten
Springer International Publishing (Verlag)
978-3-319-34043-2 (ISBN)

Infos

This new interdisciplinary work presents system dynamics as a powerful approach to enable analysts build simulation models of social systems, with a view toward enhancing decision making. Grounded in the feedback perspective of complex systems, the book provides a practical introduction to system dynamics, and covers key concepts such as stocks, flows, and feedback. Societal challenges such as predicting the impact of an emerging infectious disease, estimating population growth, and assessing the capacity of health services to cope with demographic change can all benefit from the application of computer simulation. This text explains important building blocks of the system dynamics approach, including material delays, stock management heuristics, and how to model effects between different systemic elements. Models from epidemiology, health systems, and economics are presented to illuminate important ideas, and the R programming language is used to provide an open-source and interoperable way to build system dynamics models. System Dynamics Modeling with R also describes hands-on techniques that can enhance client confidence in system dynamic models, including model testing, model analysis, and calibration. Developed from the author's course in system dynamics, this book is written for undergraduate and postgraduate students of management, operations research, computer science, and applied mathematics. Its focus is on the fundamental building blocks of system dynamics models, and its choice of R as a modeling language make it an ideal reference text for those wishing to integrate system dynamics modeling with related data analytic methods and techniques.

Dr. Jim Duggan is a Senior Lecturer in Information Technology in the College of Engineering and Informatics at the National University of Ireland Galway. He received both his Masters and Ph.D. from University College Galway, Ireland (1987 and 1990), in the discipline of Industrial Engineering and Information Systems. He has worked as a software engineer in industry, specializing in the design and implementation of decision support systems. He has also consulted in business process analysis and quality management with multinational organizations, in order to apply modern systems engineering principles to improve process efficiency and effectiveness. He has extensive experience in system dynamics teaching and research, and collaborates on interdisciplinary projects using system dynamics to enhance decision making. Examples include: long-term health systems planning, crowdsourcing systems for public health surveillance, early-warning systems for extreme weather events, and mHealth applications to support health-changing behaviours. Dr. Duggan's main research interests are in the application of system dynamics, data science, and simulation to public health policy challenges. He has published over 90 peer-reviewed papers, and is on the editorial board for the System Dynamics Review.

Inhalt

Foreword 7
Preface 9
System Dynamics and Calculus 10
Related System Dynamics Texts 11
Related Complexity Work in Other Disciplines 11
Why R? 12
Model Catalog 13
Intended Audience 13
Feedback 14
Acknowledgements 14
Contents 16
1 An Introduction to System Dynamics 18
Abstract 18
Models 18
System Dynamics in Action: Population Health Policy 19
Stocks and Flows 21
Integration 24
A System Dynamics Model of Customers 26
Dimensional Analysis for Stock and Flow Equations 30
Feedback 31
Modeling Feedback 35
The Model Building Process 38
Summary 39
References 40
2 An Introduction to R 42
Abstract 42
Vectors 42
Lists 48
Matrices 50
Data Frames 52
Functions 55
Apply Functions 56
deSolve Package 58
Visualization 61
Summary 63
3 Modeling Limits to Growth 65
Abstract 65
Modeling Causal Relationships Using Effects 65
S-Shaped Growth 68
Model of Economic Growth 72
Modeling Constraints—A Non-renewable Stock 75
Summary 85
References 86
4 Higher Order Models 88
Abstract 88
Delays 88
The Stock Management Structure 92
Health Care Model 95
Demographic Sector 96
Delivery Sector 99
Supply Sector 102
Scenario Analysis for the Health Care Model 104
Extending the Model 107
Summary 110
References 111
5 Diffusion Models 112
Abstract 112
The SIR Model 112
Policy Exploration with the SIR Model 118
A Disaggregate SIR Model 122
A Vectorized Disaggregated SIR Model in R 127
Policy Exploration with the Disaggregate SIR Model 132
Summary 135
References 136
6 Model Testing 137
Abstract 137
Model Validation in System Dynamics 137
Automated Validity Tests 141
Test Automation with RUnit 146
Summary 157
References 158
7 Model Analysis and Calibration 159
Abstract 159
Model Analysis 159
Statistical Screening 164
Model Calibration 173
Summary 177
References 179
Appendix A: Installing R and R Studio 180
Glossary 182
Index 185

Produkt-Details

• Erscheint lt. Verlag: 14.6.2016
• Reihe/Serie: Lecture Notes in Social Networks
• Reihe/Serie: Lecture Notes in Social Networks
• Zusatzinfo: XVIII, 176 p. 54 illus., 46 illus. in color.
• Verlagsort: Cham
• Sprache: englisch
• Themenwelt: Mathematik / Informatik ► Informatik
• Themenwelt: Sozialwissenschaften ► Politik / Verwaltung
• Themenwelt: Wirtschaft ► Betriebswirtschaft / Management ► Planung / Organisation
• Schlagworte: Complex Systems Modeling using R • Diffusion Models in R • Numerical Methods for Social Systems • R Programming for Simulation and Model Analysis • Simulation of Social Systems • SIR Diffusion Modeling • Social Feedback Dynamics Methods • System Dynamics for Health Policy Analysis
• ISBN-10: 3-319-34043-3 / 3319340433
• ISBN-13: 978-3-319-34043-2 / 9783319340432