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Robust Simulation for Mega-Risks

The Path from Single-Solution to Competitive, Multi-Solution Methods for Mega-Risk Management

Craig E. Taylor (Autor)

Buch | Hardcover

XXI, 164 Seiten

2015 | 1st ed. 2015
Springer International Publishing (Verlag)
978-3-319-19412-7 (ISBN)

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This book introduces a new way of analyzing, measuring and thinking about mega-risks, a "paradigm shift" that moves from single-solutions to multiple competitive solutions and strategies. "Robust simulation" is a statistical approach that demonstrates future risk through simulation of a suite of possible answers. To arrive at this point, the book systematically walks through the historical statistical methods for evaluating risks. The first chapters deal with three theories of probability and statistics that have been dominant in the 20th century, along with key mathematical issues and dilemmas. The book then introduces "robust simulation" which solves the problem of measuring the stability of simulated losses, incorporates outliers, and simulates future risk through a suite of possible answers and stochastic modeling of unknown variables. This book discusses various analytical methods for utilizing divergent solutions in making pragmatic financial and risk-mitigation decisions. The book emphasizes the importance of flexibility and attempts to demonstrate that alternative credible approaches are helpful and required in understanding a great many phenomena.

Introduction: Initial Queries Going Forward.- The Deductivist Theory of Probability and Statistics.- The Frequency Theory of Probability.- Probability and Randomness as Beliefs: Bayesian Theory.- More Challenges to Tradition: Extreme Value Diagnostics, Power Laws, and the Wobble.- Mathematization of Statistics: Flexibility and Convergence.- Robust Simulation and Non-linear Reasoning: Quantitative and Qualitative Examples.- Managing Expectations: Qualitative Considerations And Quantitative Decision Procedures.- Conclusions and Queries.

Erscheint lt. Verlag	20.11.2015
Zusatzinfo	XXI, 164 p.
Verlagsort	Cham
Sprache	englisch
Maße	155 x 235 mm
Themenwelt	Mathematik / Informatik ► Informatik ► Theorie / Studium
	Mathematik / Informatik ► Mathematik ► Angewandte Mathematik
	Naturwissenschaften ► Biologie ► Ökologie / Naturschutz
	Naturwissenschaften ► Geowissenschaften ► Geologie
Schlagworte	Decision Analysis • Hazard modeling • natural disasters • risk assessment • Risk strategies
ISBN-10	3-319-19412-7 / 3319194127
ISBN-13	978-3-319-19412-7 / 9783319194127
Zustand	Neuware