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A Solution to the Ecological Inference Problem

Reconstructing Individual Behavior from Aggregate Data

Gary King (Autor)

Buch | Hardcover

346 Seiten

1997
Princeton University Press (Verlag)
9780691012414 (ISBN)

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This text aims to provide a solution to the ecological inference problem, which has plagued users of statistical methods for over 75 years: How can researchers reliably infer individual-level behaviour from aggregate (ecological) data? In political science, this question arises when individual-level surveys are unavailable (for instance, local or comparative electoral politics), unreliable (racial politics), insufficient (political geography), or infeasible (political history). This ecological inference problem also confronts researchers in numerous areas of major significance in public policy and other academic disciplines, ranging from epidemiology and marketing to sociology and quantitative history. The book begins with a qualitative overview, readable even by those without a statistical background. It then unifies the apparently diverse findings in the methodological literature, so that only one aggregation problem remains to be solved. Finally, the author presents his solution, as well as empirical evaluations of the solution that include over 16,000 comparisons of his estimates from real aggregate data to the known individual-level answer.

Gary King is Professor of Government at Harvard University. He has authored and coauthored numerous journal articles and books in the field of political methodology, including Designing Social Inquiry: Scientific Inference in Qualitative Research (Princeton).

List of Figures 1 Qualitative Overview 2 Formal Statement of the Problem Pt. II Catalog of Problems to Fix 3 Aggregation Problems 4 Non-Aggregation Problems Pt. III The Proposed Solution 5 The Data: Generalizing the Method of Bounds 6 The Model 7 Preliminary Estimation 8 Calculating Quantities of Interest 9 Model Extensions Pt. IV Verification 10 A Typical Application Described in Detail: Voter Registration by Race 11 Robustness to Aggregation Bias: Poverty Status by Sex 12 Estimation without Information: Black Registration in Kentucky 13 Classic Ecological Inferences Pt. V Generalizations and Concluding Suggestions 14 Non-Ecological Aggregation Problems 15 Ecological Inference in Larger Tables 16 A Concluding Checklist App. A Proof That All Discrepancies Are Equivalent App. B Parameter Bounds App. C Conditional Posterior Distribution App. D The Likelihood Function App. E The Details of Nonparametric Estimation App. F Computational Issues Glossary of Symbols References Index

Zusatzinfo	53 line illus. 18 tables
Verlagsort	New Jersey
Sprache	englisch
Maße	197 x 254 mm
Gewicht	709 g
Themenwelt	Geisteswissenschaften ► Psychologie ► Verhaltenstherapie
Themenwelt	Sozialwissenschaften ► Soziologie ► Empirische Sozialforschung
ISBN-13	9780691012414 / 9780691012414
Zustand	Neuware