Expert Political Judgment
Princeton University Press (Verlag)
978-0-691-17597-3 (ISBN)
He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
Philip E. Tetlock is Mitchell Professor of Leadership at the University of California, Berkeley. His books include Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics (Princeton).
Acknowledgments ix
Preface xi
Preface to the 2017 Edition xvii
1 Quantifying the Unquantifiable 1
2 The Ego-deflating Challenge of Radical Skepticism 25
3 Knowing the Limits of One's Knowledge: Foxes Have Better Calibration and Discrimination Scores than Hedgehogs 67
4 Honoring Reputational Bets: Foxes Are Better Bayesians than Hedgehogs 121
5 Contemplating Counterfactuals: Foxes Are More Willing than Hedgehogs to Entertain Self-subversive Scenarios 144
6 The Hedgehogs Strike Back 164
7 Are We Open-minded Enough to Acknowledge the Limits of Open-mindedness? 189
8 Exploring the Limits on Objectivity and Accountability 216
Methodological Appendix 239
Technical Appendix Phillip Rescober and Philip E. Tetlock 273
Index 313
Erscheinungsdatum | 28.09.2017 |
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Vorwort | Philip E. Tetlock |
Verlagsort | New Jersey |
Sprache | englisch |
Maße | 152 x 235 mm |
Gewicht | 539 g |
Themenwelt | Geisteswissenschaften ► Psychologie ► Sozialpsychologie |
Sozialwissenschaften ► Politik / Verwaltung ► Europäische / Internationale Politik | |
Sozialwissenschaften ► Politik / Verwaltung ► Politische Theorie | |
ISBN-10 | 0-691-17597-7 / 0691175977 |
ISBN-13 | 978-0-691-17597-3 / 9780691175973 |
Zustand | Neuware |
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