Peak Energy (eBook)

Myth or Reality?

James G. Speight, M. R. Islam (Autoren)

eBook Download: EPUB

2016
John Wiley & Sons (Verlag)
978-1-119-30140-0 (ISBN)

Infos

Does the Earth contain enough oil to provide energy for the human race indefinitely? If not, how long will the oil last? What about renewable energy technologies like wind and solar? Will they be able to supply an indefinite supply of energy for the human race? If not, how long will it last? And what role does overpopulation play in our world's energy supply? Even with multiple forms of energy available, how long will it last as long as more and more humans, and therefore more industries and energy consumption, are added? Taking a long-held theory called 'Peak Oil Theory' the authors of this groundbreaking new text examine the theory of 'Peak Energy' to examine all of these questions.

Crude oil and natural gas are the major sources of fuel used to supply energy for various needs. Users of crude oil and natural gas must take into account that these energy sources are, without doubt, non-renewable depleting resources, and the cost of extraction depends not only on the current rate of production but also on the amount of cumulative production. In fact, many pundits believe projections that the world is rapidly apprpaching a precipice, after which crude oil and natural gas will no longer be in ready supply.

This phenomenon has given rise to the peak oil theory - peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of petroleum recovery from the reservoir is reached, after which the rate of petroleum production enters terminal decline. From this concept has emerged the wider concept of the peak energy theory which, as it is related to the availability of all fossil fuels, is also subject to decline with fossil fuel use.

This text, written by two of the world's most well-known, respected, and prolific writers in the energy industry, is a fascinating study of our world's energy needs and the future of the multi-source energy supply on this planet. Whether oil and gas, wind, solar, geothermal, or even nuclear, all sources of energy have their limits, and we, as scientists, engineers, and consumers of energy need to be knowledgeable on these topics. This book is a must-have for any engineer, student, scientist, or even layperson interested in energy and the idea of energy sustainability on planet Earth.

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Does the Earth contain enough oil to provide energy for the human race indefinitely? If not, how long will the oil last? What about renewable energy technologies like wind and solar? Will they be able to supply an indefinite supply of energy for the human race? If not, how long will it last? And what role does overpopulation play in our world's energy supply? Even with multiple forms of energy available, how long will it last as long as more and more humans, and therefore more industries and energy consumption, are added? Taking a long-held theory called "e;Peak Oil Theory"e; the authors of this groundbreaking new text examine the theory of "e;Peak Energy"e; to examine all of these questions. Crude oil and natural gas are the major sources of fuel used to supply energy for various needs. Users of crude oil and natural gas must take into account that these energy sources are, without doubt, non-renewable depleting resources, and the cost of extraction depends not only on the current rate of production but also on the amount of cumulative production. In fact, many pundits believe projections that the world is rapidly approaching a precipice, after which crude oil and natural gas will no longer be in ready supply. This phenomenon has given rise to the peak oil theory peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of petroleum recovery from the reservoir is reached, after which the rate of petroleum production enters terminal decline. From this concept has emerged the wider concept of the peak energy theory which, as it is related to the availability of all fossil fuels, is also subject to decline with fossil fuel use. This text, written by two of the world's most well-known, respected, and prolific writers in the energy industry, is a fascinating study of our world's energy needs and the future of the multi-source energy supply on this planet. Whether oil and gas, wind, solar, geothermal, or even nuclear, all sources of energy have their limits, and we, as scientists, engineers, and consumers of energy need to be knowledgeable on these topics. This book is a must-have for any engineer, student, scientist, or even layperson interested in energy and the idea of energy sustainability on planet Earth.

Autor

James G. Speight, PhD, is a senior fuel consultant and Visiting Professor at the University of Trinidad and Tobago and Adjunct Professor of Chemical and Fuels Engineering at the University of Utah, USA. He is recognized internationally as an expert in the characterization, properties, and processing of conventional and synthetic fuels and has more than 40 years of experience in the process industries. He is the author of numerous books and papers, the senior editor on the Journal of Sustainable Energy Engineering, and he has won numerous awards and distinctions. M. R. Islam, PhD, is a world-wide consultant on environment and energy-related issues. Dr. Islam is known as the most published engineer in the world. He is credited to have coined terms, such as "green petroleum" and "sustainable petroleum development" at a time when "sustainable petroleum" was considered to be an oxymoron. Dr. Islam's most notable contributions are in the areas of sustainability, environmental integrity, and knowledge modeling, on which topic he has written dozens of books and over 700 research papers.

Textauszug

Chapter 2

Energy Sources and Supply

2.1 Introduction

The Earth contains a finite supply of fossil fuels – the major fossil fuels are natural gas, petroleum, and coal – although there are questions about the real amounts of these fossil fuels remaining. The best current estimates for the longevity of each fossil fuel is estimated from the reserves/production ratio (BP, 2015) which gives an indication (in years) of how long each fossil fuel will last at the current rates of production. Thus, estimates vary from at least 50 years of crude oil at current rates of consumption to 300 years of coal at current rates of consumption with natural gas varying between the two extremes. In addition, the amounts of natural gas and crude oil located in tight sandstone formations and in shale formations has added a recent but exciting twist to the amount of these fossil fuels remaining. Peak energy theory proponents are inclined to discount the tight formations and shale formation as a mere aberration (or a hiccup) in the depletion of these resources while opponents of the peak energy theory take the opposite view and consider tight formations and shale formations as prolonging the longevity of natural gas and crude oil by a substantial time period. In addition, some areas of the Earth are still relatively unexplored or have been poorly analyzed and (using crude oil as the example) knowledge of in-ground resources increases dramatically as an oil reservoir is exploited.

Energy sources (Chapter 1) have been used since the beginning of recorded history and the fossil fuel resources will continue to be recognized as major sources of energy for at least the foreseeable future (Figure 2.1) (Crane et al., 2010; World Energy Council, 2008; Gudmestad et al., 2010; Speight, 2011a, 2011b; Khoshnaw, 2013; BP, 2014; Speight, 2014). Fossil fuels, namely coal, petroleum (including heavy oil), tar sand bitumen, natural gas, and oil shale produced by the decay of plant remains over geological time, represent an unrealized potential, with liquid fuels from petroleum being only a fraction of those that could ultimately be produced from heavy oil and tar sand bitumen (Speight, 1990, 1997, 2011a; 2013d, 2013e, 2014).

Figure 2.1 Distribution of world energy resources, millions of tons oil equivalent (Mtoe) (EIA, 2014).

In fact, at the present time, the majority of the energy consumed worldwide is produced from fossil fuels (petroleum: ca. 38 to 40%, coal: ca. 31 to 35%, natural gas: ca. 20 to 25%) with the remainder of the energy requirements to come from nuclear and hydroelectric sources. As a result, fossil fuels (in varying amounts depending upon the source of information) are projected to be the major sources of energy for the next 50 years (Crane et al., 2010; World Energy Council, 2008; Gudmestad et al., 2010; Speight, 2011a, 2011b, Khoshnaw, 2013; BP, 2014; Speight, 2014).

Fuels from fossil fuels (especially the petroleum-based fuels) are well-established products that have served industry and domestic consumers for more than 100 years and for the foreseeable future various fuels will still be largely based on hydrocarbon fuels derived from petroleum. Although the theory of peak oil is questionable, there is no doubt that petroleum, once considered inexhaustible, is being depleted at a measurable rate. The supposition by peak oil proponents is that supplies of petroleum are approaching a precipice in which fuels that are currently available may, within a foreseeable short time frame, be no longer available. While such a scenario is considered to be unlikely by the authors of this book, the need to consider alternate technologies to produce liquid fuels that could mitigate the forthcoming effects of the shortage of transportation fuels is necessary.

Alternate fuels produced from sources other than petroleum are making some headway into the fuel demand. For example, diesel from plant sources (biodiesel) is similar in performance to diesel from petroleum and has the added advantage of a higher cetane rating than petroleum-derived diesel. However, the production of liquid fuels from sources other than petroleum has a checkered history. The on-again-off-again efforts that are the result of the inability of the political decision makers to formulate meaningful policies has caused the production of non-conventional fuels to move slowly, if at all (Yergin, 1993; Bower, 2009; Wihbey, 2009; Speight, 2011a, 2011b; Yergin, 2011; Speight, 2014).

This is due in no small part to the price fluctuations of crude oil and the common fuel products (i.e., gasoline and diesel fuel) and the lack of planning and associated foresight by various levels of government. It must be realized that for decades the price of petroleum produced in the petroleum-exporting nations has always been maintained at a level that was sufficiently low to discourage the establishment of a domestic synthetic fuels industry in many of the petroleum-consuming countries (Figure 2.2). However, in spite of additional supplies of crude oil and natural gas coming from tight formations and shale formation, the time will come when the lack of preparedness for the production of non-conventional fuels may set many a national government on its heels. It is not a matter of “if the lack of preparedness comes to fruition” but “when will the lack of preparedness come to fruition?” This leads to the theory of peak energy production that is the subject of this book.

Figure 2.2 Processes for the production of synthetic fuels from coal, biomass, and natural gas.

In the near term, the ability of conventional fuel sources and technologies to support the global demand for energy will depend on how efficiently the energy sector can match available energy resources with the end user and how efficiently and cost effectively the energy can be delivered. These factors are directly related to the continuing evolution of a truly global energy market. In the long term, a sustainable energy future cannot be created by treating energy as an independent topic (Zatzman, 2012). Rather, the role of the energy and the interrelationship of the energy market with other markets and the various aspects of market infrastructure demand further attention and consideration. Greater energy efficiency will depend on the developing world market’s ability to integrate energy resources within a common structure (Gudmestad et al., 2010; Speight, 2011b; Khoshnaw, 2013).

World petro-politics are now in place (Bentley, 2002; Speight, 2011a) for the establishment of a synthetic fuels (including a biofuels) industry and, without being unduly dismissive of such efforts, it is up to various levels of government not only to promote the establishment of such an industry but to lead the way recognizing that it is not only supply and demand but the available and variable technology. Unfortunately, although there may be sufficient petroleum remaining to maintain the Petroleum Age (that is the age in which the developed countries of the world now operate) for another 50 years (Speight, 2011a, 2011b), the time to prepare is now. The world is not yet on the precipice of energy deficiency (as many alarmists claim) but it is necessary that the politicians in the various levels of (national) governments of oil-consuming nations look beyond the next election with an eye to the future. It should also be the focus of the proponents of biofuels production and use to ensure that sufficient feedstocks are available to successfully operate a biofuels refinery thereby contributing alternate fuels to the gradual (but not drastic) reduction of petroleum-based fuels (Speight, 2008; Giampietro and Mayumi, 2009; Speight, 2011a, 2011b). However, it is time for procrastination to cease, since this will not help in getting beyond the depletion of petroleum and natural gas resources. Various levels of government must start being serious about looking to the future for other sources of energy to supplement and even replace the current source of hydrocarbon fuels.

In addition, and in keeping with the preferential use of lighter crude oil as well as maturation effects in the reservoir, crude oil available currently to the refinery is somewhat different in composition and properties to those available approximately 50 years ago (Speight and Ozum, 2002; Hsu and Robinson, 2006; Gary et al., 2007; Speight, 2008; Siefried and Witzel, 2010; Speight, 2011a, 2014, 2015). The current crude oils are somewhat heavier insofar as they have higher proportions of non-volatile (asphaltic) constituents. In fact, by the standards of yesteryear, many of the crude oils currently in use would have been classified as heavy feedstocks, bearing in mind that they may not approach the definitions that should be used based on the method of recovery. Changes in feedstock character, such as this tendency to more viscous (heavier) crude oils, require adjustments to refinery operations to handle these heavier crude oils to reduce the amount of coke formed during processing and to balance the overall product slate (Speight, 2011a, 2014).

As the 21st century matures, there will continue to be an increased demand for energy to support the needs of commerce industry and residential uses – in fact, as the 2040 to 2049 decade approaches, commercial and residential energy demand is expected to rise considerably – by approximately 30 percent over current energy demand. This increase is due, in part, to developing countries, where national economies are expanding and the move away from rural living to city living is increasing. In addition, the fuel of the rural population (biomass) is giving way to the fuel...

Produkt-Details

• Erscheint lt. Verlag: 6.5.2016
• Sprache: englisch
• Themenwelt: Geisteswissenschaften ► Geschichte
• Themenwelt: Naturwissenschaften ► Biologie ► Ökologie / Naturschutz
• Themenwelt: Naturwissenschaften ► Geowissenschaften
• Themenwelt: Technik ► Elektrotechnik / Energietechnik
• Schlagworte: Authors • bituminous • Energie • Energie u. Umweltaspekte • Energiewirtschaft u. -politik • Energy • Energy & Environmental Impact • Energy Economics & Policy • Enhanced • formations • Fossil • fuels • Future • Gas • History • hydropower • Independence • nonfossil • Nuclear • Oil • References • Role • shale • Sources • subbituminous • tight
• ISBN-10: 1-119-30140-8 / 1119301408
• ISBN-13: 978-1-119-30140-0 / 9781119301400