Global Economic Prospects 2010 (eBook)

Crisis, Finance, and Growth

World Bank (Autor)

eBook Download: EPUB

2010 | 1. Auflage
The World Bank (Verlag)
978-0-8213-8227-1 (ISBN)

Infos

Global Economic Prospects 2010: Crisis, Finance and Growth presents the World Bank's latest short-term forecasts. In addition, the report presents evidence that the financial boom played a critical role in the growth boom experienced by developing countries between 2003 and 2007, but that tighter conditions in the future are expected to result in weaker growth over the next 5 to 10 years.

The report warns that while the worst of the financial crisis may be over, the global recovery is fragile. It predicts that the fallout from the crisis will change the landscape for finance and growth over the next 10 years. Despite the return to positive growth, it will take several years before economies recoup the losses already endured. Further, over the next 5 to 10 years, increased risk aversion, a more prudent regulatory stance, and the need to curb some of the riskier lending practices during the boom period that preceded the crisis can be expected to result in scarcer, more expensive capital for developing countries.

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"e;The crisis has deeply impacted virtually every economy in the world, and although growth has returned, much progress in the fight against poverty has been lost. More difficult international conditions in the years to come will mean that developing countries will have to place even more emphasis on improving domestic economic conditions to achieve the kind of growth that can durably eradicate poverty."e; -Justin Yifu Lin, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President The World Bank 'Global Economic Prospects 2010: Crisis, Finance, and Growth' explores both the short- and medium-term impacts of the financial crisis on developing countries. Although global growth has resumed, the recovery is fragile, and unless business and consumer demand strengthen, the world economy could slow down again. Even if, as appears likely, a double-dip recession is avoided, the recovery is expected to be slow. High unemployment and widespread restructuring will continue to characterize the global economy for the next several years. Already, the crisis has provoked large-scale human suffering. Some 64 million more people around the world are expected to be living on less than a $1.25 per day by the end of 2010, and between 30,000 and 50,000 more infants may have died of malnutrition in 2009 in Sub-Saharan Africa, than would have been the case if the crisis had not occurred. Over the medium term, economic growth is expected to recover. But increased risk aversion, a necessary and desirable tightening of financial regulations in high-income countries, and measures to reduce the exposure of developing economies to external shocks are likely to make finance scarcer and more costly than it was during the boom period. As a result, just as the ample liquidity of the early 2000s prompted an investment boom and an acceleration in developing-country potential output, higher costs will likely yield a slowing in developing-country potential growth rates of between 0.2 and 0.7 percentage points, and as much as an 8 percent decline in potential output over the medium term. In the longer term, however, developing countries can more than offset the implications of more expensive international finance by reducing the cost of capital channeled through their domestic financial markets. For more information, please visit www.worldbank.org/gep2010. To access Prospects for the Global Economy, an online companion publication, please visit www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook.

Produkt-Details

• Erscheint lt. Verlag: 12.2.2010
• Sprache: englisch
• Themenwelt: Geisteswissenschaften
• Themenwelt: Sozialwissenschaften ► Politik / Verwaltung
• Themenwelt: Wirtschaft ► Betriebswirtschaft / Management ► Finanzierung
• Themenwelt: Wirtschaft ► Volkswirtschaftslehre ► Ökonometrie
• ISBN-10: 0-8213-8227-6 / 0821382276
• ISBN-13: 978-0-8213-8227-1 / 9780821382271