Bayesian Risk Management (eBook)

A Guide to Model Risk and Sequential Learning in Financial Markets

Matt Sekerke (Autor)

eBook Download: EPUB

2015 | 1. Auflage
240 Seiten
Wiley (Verlag)
978-1-118-74750-6 (ISBN)

Infos

A risk measurement and management framework that takes model risk seriously Most financial risk models assume the future will look like the past, but effective risk management depends on identifying fundamental changes in the marketplace as they occur. Bayesian Risk Management details a more flexible approach to risk management, and provides tools to measure financial risk in a dynamic market environment. This book opens discussion about uncertainty in model parameters, model specifications, and model-driven forecasts in a way that standard statistical risk measurement does not. And unlike current machine learning-based methods, the framework presented here allows you to measure risk in a fully-Bayesian setting without losing the structure afforded by parametric risk and asset-pricing models. Recognize the assumptions embodied in classical statistics Quantify model risk along multiple dimensions without backtesting Model time series without assuming stationarity Estimate state-space time series models online with simulation methods Uncover uncertainty in workhorse risk and asset-pricing models Embed Bayesian thinking about risk within a complex organization Ignoring uncertainty in risk modeling creates an illusion of mastery and fosters erroneous decision-making. Firms who ignore the many dimensions of model risk measure too little risk, and end up taking on too much. Bayesian Risk Management provides a roadmap to better risk management through more circumspect measurement, with comprehensive treatment of model uncertainty.

Autor

MATT SEKERKE is an economic consultant based in New York whose work focuses on the financial services industry and the application of advanced quantitative modeling techniques o financial data. He holds a BA in economics and mathematics from The Johns Hopkins University, an MA in history from The Johns Hopkins University, and an MBA in econometrics and statistics, analytic finance, and entrepreneurship from The University of Chicago Booth School of Business. He is also a CFA charterholder, a certified Financial Risk Manager, and a certified Energy Risk Professional.

Inhalt

Preface

Acknowledgments

Chapter 1: Models for Discontinuous Markets

Risk Models and Model Risk

Time-Invariant Models and Crisis

Bayesian Probability as a Means of Handling Discontinuity

Time-Invariance and 'Objectivity'

Part One: Capturing Uncertainty in Statistical Models

Chapter 2: Prior Knowledge, Parameter Uncertainty, and Estimation

Estimation with Prior Knowledge: The Beta-Bernoulli Model

Prior Parameter Distributions as Hypotheses: The Normal Linear Regression Model

Decisions after Observing the Data: The Choice of Estimators

Chapter 3: Model Uncertainty

Bayesian Model Comparison

Models as Nuisance Parameters

Uncertainty in Pricing Models

A Note on Backtesting

Part Two: Sequential Learning with Adaptive Statistical Models

Chapter 4: Introduction to Sequential Modeling

Sequential Bayesian Inference

Achieving Adaptivity via Discounting

Accounting for Uncertainty in Sequential Models

State Space Models of Time Series

Dynamic Linear Models

Recursive Relationships in the DLM

Variance Estimation

Sequential Model Comparison

Chapter 5: Sequential Monte Carlo Inference

Non-Linear and Non-Normal Models

State Learning with Particle Filters

Joint Learning of Parameters and States

Sequential Model Comparison

Part Three: Sequential Models of Financial Risk

Chapter 6: Volatility Modeling

Single-Asset Volatility

Volatility for Multiple Assets

Chapter 7: Asset Pricing Models and Hedging

Derivative Pricing in the Schwartz Model

Online State-Space Model Estimates of Derivative Prices

Models for Portfolios of Assets

Part Four: Bayesian Risk Management

Chapter 8: From Risk Measurement to Risk Management

Results

Prior Information as an Instrument of Corporate Governance

References

Index

Produkt-Details

• Erscheint lt. Verlag: 19.8.2015
• Reihe/Serie: Wiley Finance Editions
• Sprache: englisch
• Themenwelt: Recht / Steuern ► Wirtschaftsrecht
• Themenwelt: Wirtschaft ► Betriebswirtschaft / Management ► Finanzierung
• Themenwelt: Betriebswirtschaft / Management ► Spezielle Betriebswirtschaftslehre ► Versicherungsbetriebslehre
• Themenwelt: Wirtschaft ► Betriebswirtschaft / Management ► Unternehmensführung / Management
• Schlagworte: Business & Management • Risikomanagement • Risiko-, Notfall- u. Krisenmanagement • Risk, Contingency & Crisis Management • Wirtschaft u. Management
• ISBN-10: 1-118-74750-X / 111874750X
• ISBN-13: 978-1-118-74750-6 / 9781118747506