OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2016 Issue 2 (eBook)

Oecd (Autor)

eBook Download: PDF

2016 | 1. Auflage
332 Seiten
OECD Publishing (Verlag)
978-92-64-26758-9 (ISBN)

Infos

The OECD Economic Outlook  is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. The Outlook puts forward a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances.
Coverage is provided for all OECD member countries as well as for selected non-member countries. This issue includes a general assessment, a special chapter on promoting productivity and equality, a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country and a statistical annex.

Inhalt

Table of contents 5
Editorial: Deploy effective fiscal initiatives and promote inclusive trade policies to escape from the low-growth trap 11
Chapter 1. General assessment of the macroeconomic situation 15
Introduction 16
The recovery could gain steam depending on policy choices 17
Figure 1.1. Global GDP growth is set to rise 17
Figure 1.2. Economic policy uncertainty remains elevated in a number of economies 18
Table 1.1. The global recovery could gain some steam 19
Figure 1.3. Fiscal stimulus is helping to support GDP growth 19
Box 1.1. The short-term impact of fiscal stimulus in the United States 20
The near-term GDP growth impact of a stylised US fiscal stimulus 21
The contribution of US fiscal stimulus to projected GDP growth 21
Figure 1.4. GDP growth projections for the major economies 23
Box 1.2. Growth and inflation projections in the major economies 23
Figure 1.5. Global trade is very weak relative to historic norms 25
Box 1.3. The impact of changes in global trade costs 25
The effect of increased trade costs in the United States, China and Europe 26
Raising trade intensity would boost productivity growth 27
How would fiscal policy help to exit the low growth trap? 27
Figure 1.6. Long-term GDP growth expectations have declined over the past five years 28
Figure 1.7. Growth expectations have fallen in countries with past growth shortfalls 29
Figure 1.8. A widening labour productivity gap between global frontier firms and other firms 30
Figure 1.9. The post-crisis recovery has been weak and unbalanced in the advanced economies 31
Figure 1.10. Differences in consumption growth largely reflect differences in income growth 32
Figure 1.11. Employment rates differ widely across the OECD economies 32
Figure 1.12. Weak wage growth and subdued employment are holding back household incomes 33
Figure 1.13. Household saving has risen in countries with higher income inequality since the onset of the crisis 34
Figure 1.14. Household saving has risen in many countries with strong improvements in household financial balance sheets 35
Figure 1.15. The largest gains in financial balance sheets have occurred in countries with a relatively concentrated wealth distribution 35
Figure 1.16. The association between house prices and household saving has weakened in recent years 36
Distortions and risks in financial markets 36
Figure 1.17. Sovereign bond yields have declined in tandem with expected overnight interest rates 37
Figure 1.18. Negative-yield sovereign bonds are dominant in Europe and Japan 38
Figure 1.19. Corporate bond yield spreads have declined 38
Figure 1.20. Equity prices point to a disconnect between real prospects and financial yields 39
Figure 1.21. Growth in real estate prices has been strong in some advanced economies 40
Figure 1.22. Investors have been pessimistic about the health of the banking sector in many advanced economies 42
Figure 1.23. Funding gaps of defined benefit pension funds have widened 43
Box 1.4. The impact of low interest rates and low economic growth on pensions 44
Pension arrangements vary widely across countries 45
Figure 1.24. Credit growth has remained robust despite its recent weakening in a few EMEs 46
More determined and comprehensive policy efforts are needed 47
Figure 1.25. Several central banks have become dominant holders of domestic government bonds 48
Figure 1.26. Shortening insolvency procedures increases recovery rates 49
Figure 1.27. The fiscal stance has started to be loosened only recently 51
Figure 1.28. Implementation of structural reform packages has been uneven 52
Bibliography 53
Annexe 1.A1. Policy and other assumptions underlying the projections 56
Annexe 1.A2. Indicators of potential financial vulnerabilities 58
Table 1.A2.1. Indicators of potential financial vulnerabilities 60
Table 1.A2.2. Financial-accounts-related risk factors to financial stability 62
Chapter 2. Using the fiscal levers to escape the low-growth trap 65
Introduction 66
Very low interest rates in advanced economies have increased fiscal space 68
Figure 2.1. Fiscal stance and public debt levels in OECD countries 68
Figure 2.2. OECD Potential output growth has slowed markedly 69
Figure 2.3. Fall in government interest payments 70
Figure 2.4. Nominal long-term interest rates in EMEs 70
Figure 2.5. Different approaches to measuring fiscal space 71
Figure 2.6. Lower interest rates increase fiscal space 73
Figure 2.7. Fiscal limit cumulative distribution functions 74
Figure 2.8. Fiscal space gains from healthcare reforms 75
A fiscal initiative can help boost long-term growth and inclusiveness 76
Figure 2.9. Factors that can influence the growth impact of a fiscal initiative 76
Figure 2.10. Number of years during which a permanent investment increase can be funded with temporary deficits 77
Box 2.1. Debt-financed public investment with no long-term effect on the debt-to-GDP ratio 77
The break-even number of years of deficit-financed public investment: the example of Germany 78
Figure 2.11. Ex post evaluation of regulation 80
Figure 2.12. The short-term effect of a sustained increase in public investment of 0.5% of GDP 80
Figure 2.13. Long-term output gains of a permanent increase in public investment of 0.5% of GDP 81
Figure 2.14. Long-term output gains of different assumptions on the rate of return on public investment 82
Figure 2.15. Additional output gains from structural reforms after one year 83
Figure 2.16. Effects of hysteresis on long-term output gains 84
Figure 2.17. Gains from collective action in the OECD countries 85
Table 2.1. Country-specific conditions and the impact of public investment stimulus 86
The composition of spending and taxes should be made more supportive of inclusive growth 86
Table 2.2. Effects of public spending reforms on growth and equity 86
Table 2.3. Growth and equity effects of decreases in selected tax and contributions 87
Figure 2.18. Changes in the share of productive spending between 2007 and 2013 88
Figure 2.19. Net public investment in large euro area countries 89
Most advanced countries should make use of the expanded fiscal space and all can make the tax and spending mix more growth and equity friendly 89
Table 2.4. Planned versus recommended fiscal stances for 2017-18 89
Box 2.2. Expanding fiscal space under the EU Stability and Growth Pact 91
Bibliography 92
Annexe 2.A1. Selected approaches to estimate fiscal space 95
Figure 2.A1.1. Determination of the debt limit 96
Figure 2.A1.2. Debt limit sensitivity analysis 97
Figure 2.A1.3. Medium term gap 98
Figure 2.A1.4. Maximum primary balance at a given period and state of the economy 100
Annexe 2.A2. Brief comparison of the models used in the public investment simulations 101
chapter 3. Developments in individual OECD and selected non-member economies 103
Argentina 104
Australia 107
Austria 110
Belgium 113
Brazil 116
Canada 120
Chile 125
China 128
Colombia 132
Costa Rica 135
Czech Republic 138
Denmark 141
Estonia 144
Euro area 147
Finland 152
France 155
Germany 159
Greece 164
Hungary 167
Iceland 170
India 173
Indonesia 177
Ireland 180
Israel 183
Italy 186
Japan 190
Korea 195
Latvia 198
Lithuania 201
Luxembourg 204
Mexico 207
Netherlands 210
New Zealand 213
Norway 216
Poland 219
Portugal 222
Russia 225
Slovak Republic 229
Slovenia 232
South Africa 235
Spain 238
Sweden 241
Switzerland 244
Turkey 247
United Kingdom 250
United States 255
Statistical Annex 261
Note on quarterly projections 261
Additional information 263
National accounts reporting systems, base years and latest data updates 264
Annex tables 267
Annex Table 1. Real GDP 269
Annex Table 2. Nominal GDP 270
Annex Table 3. Real private consumption expenditure 271
Annex Table 4. Real public consumption expenditure 272
Annex Table 5. Real total gross fixed capital formation 273
Annex Table 6. Real gross private non-residential fixed capital formation 274
Annex Table 7. Real gross residential fixed capital formation 275
Annex Table 8. Real total domestic demand 276
Annex Table 9. Foreign balance contributions to changes in real GDP 277
Annex Table 10. Quarterly demand and output projections 278
Annex Table 11. Contributions to changes in real GDP in OECD countries 280
Annex Table 12. Output gaps 282
Annex Table 13. GDP deflators 283
Annex Table 14. Private consumption deflators 284
Annex Table 15. Consumer price indices 285
Annex Table 16. Oil and other primary commodity markets 286
Annex Table 17. Compensation per employee 287
Annex Table 18. Labour productivity 288
Annex Table 19. Employment and labour force 289
Annex Table 20. Labour force, employment and unemployment 290
Annex Table 21. Unemployment rates: national definitions 291
Annex Table 22. Harmonised unemployment rates 292
Annex Table 23. Quarterly price, cost and unemployment projections 293
Annex Table 24. Potential GDP and productive capital stock 294
Annex Table 25. Structural unemployment and unit labour costs 295
Annex Table 26. Household saving rates 296
Annex Table 27. Gross national saving 297
Annex Table 28. Household wealth and indebtedness 298
Annex Table 29. General government total outlays 299
Annex Table 30. General government total tax and non-tax receipts 300
Annex Table 31. General government financial balances 301
Annex Table 32. General government cyclically-adjusted balances 302
Annex Table 33. General government underlying balances 303
Annex Table 34. General government underlying primary balances 304
Annex Table 35. General government net debt interest payments 305
Annex Table 36. General government gross financial liabilities 306
Annex Table 37. General government net financial liabilities 307
Annex Table 38. Maastricht definition of general government gross public debt 308
Annex Table 39. Short-term interest rates 309
Annex Table 40. Long-term interest rates 310
Annex Table 41. Nominal exchange rates (vis-à-vis the US dollar) 311
Annex Table 42. Effective exchange rates 312
Annex Table 43. Nominal house prices 313
Annex Table 44. Real house prices 314
Annex Table 45. House price-to-rent ratio 315
Annex Table 46. House price-to-income ratio 316
Annex Table 47. Export volumes of goods and services 317
Annex Table 48. Import volumes of goods and services 318
Annex Table 49. Export prices of goods and services 319
Annex Table 50. Import prices of goods and services 320
Annex Table 51. Indicators of competitiveness based on relative consumer prices 321
Annex Table 52. Indicators of competitiveness based on relative unit labour costs 322
Annex Table 53. Export market growth in goods and services 323
Annex Table 54. Export performance for total goods and services 324
Annex Table 55. Import penetration 325
Annex Table 56. Shares in world exports and imports 326
Annex Table 57. Geographical structure of world trade growth 327
Annex Table 58. Trade balances for goods and services 328
Annex Table 59. Balance of primary income 329
Annex Table 60. Balance of secondary income 330
Annex Table 61. Current account balances 331
Annex Table 62. Current account balances as a percentage of GDP 332
Annex Table 63. Structure of current account balances of major world regions 333

Produkt-Details

• Erscheint lt. Verlag: 17.12.2016
• Sprache: englisch
• Themenwelt: Sozialwissenschaften ► Politik / Verwaltung ► Staat / Verwaltung
• Themenwelt: Wirtschaft ► Volkswirtschaftslehre ► Wirtschaftspolitik
• ISBN-10: 92-64-26758-1 / 9264267581
• ISBN-13: 978-92-64-26758-9 / 9789264267589