OECD Economic Surveys: Poland 2016 (eBook)

Oecd (Autor)

eBook Download: PDF

2016 | 1. Auflage
140 Seiten
OECD Publishing (Verlag)
978-92-64-25256-1 (ISBN)

Infos

This 2016 OECD Economic Survey of the Poland examines recent economic developments, policies and prospects. The special chapters cover: Skills and migration; Transport and energy infrastructure.

Inhalt

20th anniversary of Poland’s accession to the OECD 5
Table of contents 7
Basic Statistics of Poland, 2014 12
Executive summary 13
Growth is robust, and unemployment has declined 14
Average annual real GDP growth, 2007-14 14
Education reforms would strengthen skills 14
Literacy proficiency scores for 16-65, 2012 14
Greening infrastructure would improve public health 14
Deaths from air pollution per 100 000 inhabitants, 2013 14
Assessment and recommendations 17
Moving towards higher-technology production would raise living standards 18
Figure 1. GDP growth has been robust, but productivity and exports’ technological content have stayed weak 19
Figure 2. The working-age population is set to decline sharply 19
Figure 3. The OECD Better Life Index for Poland 20
Growth is solid, and the labour market situation has improved significantly 20
Table 1. Macroeconomic indicators and projections 21
Figure 4. Macroeconomic indicators 22
Box 1. Possible shocks to the Polish economy 22
Macroeconomic policies 23
The government needs higher revenues to finance its programmes 23
Box 2. The new government’s tax and spending plans 23
Figure 5. Debt is on a declining path 25
Figure 6. VAT revenue shortfall due to tax breaks¹ 25
Figure 7. VAT revenue shortfall due to evasion¹ 26
Monetary policy faces challenges 27
Figure 8. Inflation and monetary policy 28
The financial system remains sound 27
Figure 9. Financial sector developments 28
Figure 10. Foreign-currency-denominated and non-performing loans 29
Enhancing employment and access to high-quality jobs 29
Improving labour force participation and employment of women and seniors 29
Figure 11. Employment rates are low in the context of rapid ageing, and in-work poverty is relatively high 30
Figure 12. Enrolment rates in pre-primary and early childhood education have been weak but increasing 31
Figure 13. Reduction in gross average replacement rates¹ of public pensions², 2013-60 31
Improving access to high-quality jobs 32
Figure 14. Temporary employment 32
Figure 15. Average tax wedges on labour income 33
Ensuring efficient public infrastructure and better conditions for private investment 34
Strengthening the quality of infrastructure investment 34
Figure 16. Public and private investment 35
Greening infrastructure 35
Figure 17. GHG emissions and deaths from ambient air pollution 36
Figure 18. The effective tax rate on CO2 emissions from energy use is low 36
Transport infrastructure needs are substantial 37
Figure 19. Transport infrastructure 37
The renewal of energy infrastructure is an opportunity to go for cleaner options 39
Figure 20. Electricity generation capacity 39
Figure 21. Energy prices 40
Figure 22. International interconnection capacity in the electricity market 41
Developing ICT infrastructure 42
Figure 23. Fixed broadband penetration and ICT use 43
Improving conditions for private investment 42
Figure 24. Procedures to start a business and resolve insolvency remain long and costly 44
Further improving education to boost productivity and the ability to adopt innovations 44
The government is striving to lift learning outcomes 44
Figure 25. Skill test scores of adults, including those with tertiary education, are below the OECD average 45
Figure 26. The skills of students and graduates from basic vocational schools are weak 46
Making the education system more responsive to labour market needs 46
Figure 27. Qualification mismatches have important consequences 47
Figure 28. Participation in continuing education is poor 48
Figure 29. Qualifications are valued more than skills 49
Raising the quality of tertiary education 48
Figure 30. Tertiary education boomed, and students abandoned vocational education until recently 50
Improving information and guidance services 49
Making better use of migrants’ skills 50
Figure 31. Emigration from Poland is significant 51
Figure 32. Skills of Polish emigrants are low, and they tend to perform simple jobs abroad 52
Bibliography 53
Annex. Progress in structural reform 57
Thematic chapters 61
Chapter 1. Making better use of skills and migration 63
Raising skill levels 64
The government is striving to lift learning outcomes 64
Figure 1.1. Skill test scores of adults, including those with tertiary education, are below the OECD average 65
Vocational education 65
Box 1.1. Initial vocational education in Poland 66
Figure 1.2. First-year students in upper secondary school by type of education 67
Figure 1.3. Labour market outcomes of vocational school leavers are weaker than in other OECD countries 68
Figure 1.4. The skills of students and graduates from basic vocational schools are weak 68
Continuing education 70
Figure 1.5. Participation in continuing education 71
Figure 1.6. Many adults have weak computer skills 72
Figure 1.7. Qualifications are valued more than skills 73
Box 1.2. Basic skills strategies in OECD countries 73
Higher education 74
Figure 1.8. Tertiary education attainment rates of individuals aged 25 to 34 74
Figure 1.9. Poland’s tertiary education institutions 75
Figure 1.10. Evaluation results for higher education institutions in Poland, 2008-11 75
Improving skill matches 76
Figure 1.11. Qualification mismatches have important consequences 77
Promoting a better use of skills through labour market policies 78
Figure 1.12. Temporary employment 79
Migration and skills 80
Emigration is significant, while immigration has been rising from a low level 80
Figure 1.13. Emigration from Poland is significant 81
Figure 1.14. Immigration has been rising rapidly, though from a low level 82
Working and living conditions drive emigration 81
Figure 1.15. Unemployment in Poland 83
Figure 1.16. Social protection of the unemployed is relatively limited 84
Emigration is adding to significant demographic pressures, but it has reduced poverty and inequality 84
Figure 1.17. The working-age population is set to decline sharply 85
Poland both loses and gains highly qualified workers through migration 86
Figure 1.18. Both emigrants and immigrants are relatively high-skilled, 2011 86
Figure 1.19. Skills of Polish emigrants are low, and they tend to perform simple jobs abroad 87
Migrants find it difficult to use their skills and qualifications on the Polish labour market 88
Active outreach to migrants is in Poland’s interest 89
Recommendations to strengthen workers’ skills and profit more from migration 90
Bibliography 91
Chapter 2. Improving transport and energy infrastructure investment 95
Infrastructure is key for productivity and social welfare 96
Figure 2.1. Public investment has been significant but bottlenecks remain 97
Figure 2.2. Regional disparities and residential mobility 97
Figure 2.3. Land transport safety and urban air pollution 98
Figure 2.4. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the energy sector 98
An overarching strategy and a sound institutional framework are key to improving infrastructure 99
Better integrating strategic infrastructure plans across objectives and levels of government 99
Figure 2.5. Indicators of the adequacy of infrastructure planning and financing 100
Box 2.1. Government transport programmes 102
Figure 2.6. Land administration, urban sprawl and duration of urbanism procedures 104
Figure 2.7. Fixed broadband penetration and ICT use 105
Figure 2.8. Green taxes 106
Figure 2.9. EU structural and cohesion funds, 2007-13 and 2014-201 107
Strengthening public procurement capabilities 107
Figure 2.10. Public procurement procedures in 2014 108
Figure 2.11. The perceived risks of corruption are high, 2013 110
Mobilising private sources of infrastructure investment 111
Figure 2.12. Large public-private-partnership projects have been difficult to complete 111
Box 2.2. EU initiatives to attract private infrastructure investment and the EFSI 113
Box 2.3. The state-owned development bank (BGK), the Polish Investments for Development (PIR) and the Polish Development Fund (PFR) 114
Figure 2.13. Assets of pension funds in selected OECD countries, 2013-141 114
Figure 2.14. Regulation in network industries1 made significant progress, but bottlenecks remain 115
Improving transport infrastructure would strengthen productivity and health outcomes 115
Figure 2.15. Public investment in transport has increased but remains unbalanced 116
Developing integrated transport programmes and implementation plans 116
Table 2.1. Structure of responsibilities for the road network, 2005-13 117
Improving road asset management and developing road pricing 118
Figure 2.16. The maintenance needs of the road network are set to increase rapidly 118
Strengthening the rail infrastructure investment framework 120
Figure 2.17. The share of rail transport is declining 120
Figure 2.18. The quality of the rail infrastructure and services is perceived as low 121
Figure 2.19. Density of the railway network 122
Figure 2.20. Rail access charges for freight are high by international standards 123
Ensuring appropriate development of seaports and airports 123
Figure 2.21. The perceived quality of seaport infrastructure remains low, but spending is rising 124
Figure 2.22. Airport infrastructure spending and air traffic 125
Promoting appropriate energy infrastructure investment 125
Figure 2.23. Electricity generation capacity 126
Figure 2.24. Share of coal and emissions from the power sector 126
Ensuring better incentives for new generating capacity 125
Figure 2.25. The draft Energy Policy of Poland until 2050 127
Figure 2.26. The EU Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS) 128
Figure 2.27. International interconnection capacity in the electricity market 129
Figure 2.28. Retail and wholesale prices of electricity 130
Developing renewable energy sources 130
Figure 2.29. Renewable energy sources 131
Raising energy efficiency 132
Figure 2.30. Household energy consumption 133
Strengthening the energy regulatory framework and the gas market 134
Figure 2.31. The gas sector 135
Recommendations for improving transport and energy infrastructure investment 136
Bibliography 137

Produkt-Details

• Erscheint lt. Verlag: 22.3.2016
• Sprache: englisch
• Themenwelt: Sozialwissenschaften ► Politik / Verwaltung ► Staat / Verwaltung
• Themenwelt: Wirtschaft ► Volkswirtschaftslehre ► Wirtschaftspolitik
• ISBN-10: 92-64-25256-8 / 9264252568
• ISBN-13: 978-92-64-25256-1 / 9789264252561